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MDISA Severn School Varsity Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 23 20 43
2 Severn School Severn School Admirals 2 34 17 51
3 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 27 39 66
4 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 37 40 77
5 Key School Key School Zags 27 55 82
6 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 38 44 82
7 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 42 49 91
8 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 54 38 92
9 Jackson-Reed High School Jackson-Reed High School Tigers 73 39 112
10 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 66 57 123
11 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 57 69 126
12 School Without Walls School Without Walls Penguins 68 80 148
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 3 1 3 11 3 1 23 Ava Cornell '24
Scarlett Harris '24
Key School Key School Zags 2 4 2 4 1 5 9 27 Mason Cook '25 [1-6]
James Rizek '23 [7]
Paige Asbill '31 [1-3]
Elizabeth Roesch '27 [4-6]
Annabelle Ulak '26 [7]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 3 1 6 8 3 1 5 27 Halsey Carter '26
Aurelea Cerny '30
Severn School Severn School Admirals 2 4 2 3 6 4 11 4 34 Nathan Long '24
Reese Corckran '24
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 6 9 8 2 7 2 3 37 Joseph Murphy '24
Will Clay '25
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 5 6 5 5 2 9 6 38 Chris White '24 [1-6]
Hayden Clary '24 [7]
Justin Marquez '24 [1-6]
Ryan Becker '24 [7]
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 8 7 9 1 8 7 2 42 Peter Judge '25
Alexandria Still '27
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 10 5 4 9 6 10 10 54 Claire Sullivan '25
Eliza Szymendera '25
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 11 11 7 11 5 4 8 57 James Biles V '27
Teagan Leigh '28
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 12 10 11 7 9 6 11 66 Hartley Cooper '26
Riley Schnable '25
School Without Walls School Without Walls Penguins 9 8 12 12 12 8 7 68 Amory Smith '26
Georgia Neaderland '26
Jackson-Reed High School Jackson-Reed High School Tigers 7 12 10 10 10 12 12 73 Luke Petry '27 [1-7]
Kara Panjrath '26 [1-3]
Leif Carney '25 [4-6]
Jonah Molinoff '25 [7]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 2 3 6 1 1 2 1 3 17 Will Friedell '24
Maura Mcpartlin '25
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 2 12 1 2 1 20 Annie Sitzmann '26
Helena English '24
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 11 9 3 2 3 8 2 38 Ryan Brelage '24
Alex Prior '24
Jackson-Reed High School Jackson-Reed High School Tigers 7 2 7 5 7 4 7 39 William Lindsley '24
Caitlin Costello '24
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 8 5 5 3 6 6 6 39 Charlotte Hugo '26 [1-6]
Finn Erickson '29 [7]
Finn Erickson '29 [1-3]
James Chapman '27 [4-6]
Charlotte Hugo '26 [7]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 5 8 8 4 4 7 4 40 James Lilyquist '24
Giovanni Grandi '25
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 2 11 4 7 5 10 5 44 Marco Welch '24
James O'Leary '25
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 4 3 10 8 9 5 10 49 Gavin Morris '25 [1-3]
Robert Heath '25 [4-7]
Henry Carlson '25 [1-3]
Connor Smith '25 [4-7]
Key School Key School Zags 6 4 6 10 10 11 8 55 James Rizek '23 [1-3]
Trey Burman '25 [4-6]
Andrew Baker '24 [7]
Annabelle Ulak '26 [1-3]
Maya Kirshtein '26 [4-7]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 12 10 9 6 8 3 9 57 Cristian Botsis '25
Daniel Schwaninger '26
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 9 7 11 9 12 9 12 69 Zachary Wells '25
Adalyn Biles '27
School Without Walls School Without Walls Penguins 10 DNS 12 11 11 12 11 80 Henry Cummins '29 [1-3]
Jack Sieg '24 [4-7]
Ava Degraaf '24 [1-2]
Gigi Abed '25 [3]
Henry Cummins '29 [4-7]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2024 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins1113335
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets2224446
Jackson-Reed High SchoolJackson-Reed High School Tigers3335557
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers4446668
Key SchoolKey School Zags5557779
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders66688810
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres1212122224
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals 188810101012
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals 29991111111
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons1010101212122
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints1111111113
School Without WallsSchool Without Walls Penguins77799911

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins2224446
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets3335557
Jackson-Reed High SchoolJackson-Reed High School Tigers4446668
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers5557779
Key SchoolKey School Zags66688810
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders77799911
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres1113335
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals 19991111111
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals 21010101212122
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons1111111113
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints1212122224
School Without WallsSchool Without Walls Penguins88810101012
School / Team SkipperCrew
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Chris White '24 [1-6]
Hayden Clary '24 [7]		 Justin Marquez '24 [1-6]
Ryan Becker '24 [7]
Bruins Marco Welch '24 James O'Leary '25
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Claire Sullivan '25 Eliza Szymendera '25
Hornets Ryan Brelage '24 Alex Prior '24
Jackson-Reed High School Jackson-Reed High School Luke Petry '27 [1-7] Kara Panjrath '26 [1-3]
Leif Carney '25 [4-6]
Jonah Molinoff '25 [7]
Tigers William Lindsley '24 Caitlin Costello '24
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School James Biles V '27 Teagan Leigh '28
Buccaneers Zachary Wells '25 Adalyn Biles '27
Key School Key School Mason Cook '25 [1-6]
James Rizek '23 [7]		 Paige Asbill '31 [1-3]
Elizabeth Roesch '27 [4-6]
Annabelle Ulak '26 [7]
Zags James Rizek '23 [1-3]
Trey Burman '25 [4-6]
Andrew Baker '24 [7]		 Annabelle Ulak '26 [1-3]
Maya Kirshtein '26 [4-7]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Joseph Murphy '24 Will Clay '25
Raiders James Lilyquist '24 Giovanni Grandi '25
School Without Walls School Without Walls Amory Smith '26 Georgia Neaderland '26
Penguins Henry Cummins '29 [1-3]
Jack Sieg '24 [4-7]		 Ava Degraaf '24 [1-2]
Gigi Abed '25 [3]
Henry Cummins '29 [4-7]
Severn School Severn School Ava Cornell '24 Scarlett Harris '24
Admirals 1 Annie Sitzmann '26 Helena English '24
Severn School Severn School Nathan Long '24 Reese Corckran '24
Admirals 2 Will Friedell '24 Maura Mcpartlin '25
Severna Park Severna Park Peter Judge '25 Alexandria Still '27
Falcons Gavin Morris '25 [1-3]
Robert Heath '25 [4-7]		 Henry Carlson '25 [1-3]
Connor Smith '25 [4-7]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Halsey Carter '26 Aurelea Cerny '30
Saints Charlotte Hugo '26 [1-6]
Finn Erickson '29 [7]		 Finn Erickson '29 [1-3]
James Chapman '27 [4-6]
Charlotte Hugo '26 [7]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Hartley Cooper '26 Riley Schnable '25
Sabres Cristian Botsis '25 Daniel Schwaninger '26

Conditions — 04/07/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 45%  ·  Pressure 1019.0 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.4 kn
avg  ·  max 11.7 kn
Gusts to 23.9 kn
From NNW (341°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover38% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity45% Pressure1019.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Severn: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.15)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.03 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.18
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.37 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.15 means a rating gap counts about 13% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Severn by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Severn, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →