| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 12–2 |
| 2 |  |
Leonardtown High School | Raiders | 8–6 |
| 3 |  |
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | 8–6 |
| 4 |  |
Key School | Zags | 7–7 |
| 5 |  |
Broadneck High School | Bruins | 7–7 |
| 6 |  |
St. Mary's High School (MD) | Saints | 7–7 |
| 7 |  |
Great Mills High School | Hornets | 6–8 |
| 8 |  |
Severna Park | Falcons | 1–13 |
| 9 |  |
Towson High School | Generals | 0–0 |
| 9 |  |
Gilman School | Greyhounds | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,332 team race matches sailed before 2023-09-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 40 of 59 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.568 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.71 ± 0.32: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 13% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Key School | 3.79 | 4.90 | 9–7 | 6.3 | +1.11 | 1.7 | 10% |
| 7 | Great Mills High School | 3.84 | 4.05 | 6–8 | 5.6 | +0.21 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 2 | Leonardtown High School | 4.75 | 4.86 | 8–6 | 7.8 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 5 | Broadneck High School | 4.28 | 4.39 | 8–8 | 7.7 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 6 | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 4.17 | 4.02 | 7–9 | 7.4 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 8 | Severna Park | 1.70 | 1.17 | 1–13 | 1.5 | −0.54 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 3 | Archbishop Spalding | 5.61 | 4.70 | 8–6 | 9.7 | −0.91 | 0.9 | 93% |
| 1 | Severn School | 7.68 | 6.47 | 12–2 | 13.1 | −1.21 | 0.8 | 95% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Rizek | Key School | 1.01 | 1.13 | 8–6 | 7.8 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 57% |
| Will Clay | Leonardtown High School | 1.39 | 1.50 | 8–6 | 7.8 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 57% |
| Aden Keithley | Broadneck High School | 0.76 | 0.87 | 8–8 | 7.7 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 55% |
| Chris White | Broadneck High School | 1.68 | 1.79 | 8–8 | 7.7 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 55% |
| Jack Powers | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 2.04 | 1.89 | 7–9 | 7.4 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Charlotte Hugo | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 0.93 | 0.79 | 7–9 | 7.4 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Charles Geraghty | Archbishop Spalding | 0.23 | -0.68 | 8–6 | 9.7 | −0.91 | 0.9 | 93% |
| Parker Herman | Archbishop Spalding | 2.42 | 1.51 | 8–6 | 9.7 | −0.91 | 0.9 | 93% |
| Annie Sitzmann | Severn School | 2.82 | 1.52 | 10–2 | 11.2 | −1.30 | 1.0 | 96% |
| Harrison Szot | Severn School | 2.24 | 0.94 | 10–2 | 11.2 | −1.30 | 1.0 | 96% |
| Ava Cornell | Severn School | 2.81 | 1.51 | 10–2 | 11.2 | −1.30 | 1.0 | 96% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Saints | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 2-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Admirals | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Zags | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Hornets | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Bruins | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-3-6 |
| 12 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Zags | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Hornets | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Saints | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Zags | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Hornets | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Admirals | 2-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Bruins | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-3-6 |
| 20 | |
Zags | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Saints | 2-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Admirals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Hornets | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Cavaliers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Zags | 1-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Hornets | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Zags | 1-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Saints | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Saints | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 1-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Bruins | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 2-3-6 |
| 35 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Raiders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Zags | 1-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Cavaliers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 2-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Saints | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Zags | 4-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Hornets | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Saints | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Admirals | 1-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Zags | 3-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Raiders | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-3-6 |
| 46 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 48 | |
Zags | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Saints | 1-4-6 |
| 49 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 50 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 51 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-6 |
| 53 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 54 | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 | def. | |
Saints | 1-2-6 OCS |
| 55 | |
Falcons | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 1-4-6 |
| 56 | |
Zags | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 1-5-6 |
| 57 | |
Zags | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Saints | 3-5-6 |
| 58 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 59 | |
Bruins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-5 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
