| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals 1 | 7–0 |
| 2 |  |
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | 5–2 |
| 3 |  |
Leonardtown High School | Raiders | 5–2 |
| 4 | |
Severn School | Admirals 2 | 5–2 |
| 5 |  |
Broadneck High School | Bruins | 2–5 |
| 6 |  |
Great Mills High School | Hornets | 2–5 |
| 7 |  |
St. Mary's High School (MD) | Saints | 1–6 |
| 8 |  |
Key School | Zags | 1–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 9,006 team race matches sailed before 2022-10-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 24 of 28 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.311 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.17 ± 0.44: a typical event, more orderly than 29% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School Admirals 1 | 10.22 | 13.22 | 7–0 | 6.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 78% |
| 3 | Leonardtown High School Raiders | 4.71 | 7.43 | 5–2 | 3.3 | +2.73 | 2.6 | 8% |
| 4 | Severn School Admirals 2 | 6.64 | 6.95 | 5–2 | 4.8 | +0.31 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 7 | St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints | 1.89 | 2.14 | 1–6 | 0.9 | +0.25 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 8 | Key School Zags | 2.23 | 1.97 | 1–6 | 1.1 | −0.26 | 0.0 | 77% |
| 6 | Great Mills High School Hornets | 3.69 | 3.07 | 2–5 | 2.4 | −0.63 | 0.2 | 85% |
| 5 | Broadneck High School Bruins | 4.37 | 2.99 | 2–5 | 3.0 | −1.38 | 0.8 | 95% |
| 2 | Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers | 7.90 | 6.50 | 5–2 | 5.7 | −1.40 | 0.6 | 95% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Engel | Leonardtown High School | 1.62 | 4.34 | 5–2 | 3.3 | +2.73 | 2.6 | 8% |
| Will Friedell | Severn School | 1.80 | 4.32 | 3–1 | 2.1 | +2.52 | 1.3 | 25% |
| Annie Sitzmann | Severn School | 2.24 | 4.76 | 3–1 | 2.1 | +2.52 | 1.3 | 25% |
| Ava Cornell | Severn School | 2.61 | 2.92 | 5–2 | 4.8 | +0.31 | 0.0 | 69% |
| Jack Powers | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 1.88 | 2.13 | 1–6 | 0.9 | +0.25 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Charles Langemak | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 0.17 | 0.42 | 1–6 | 0.9 | +0.25 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Annabelle Ulak | Key School | 0.36 | 0.10 | 1–6 | 1.1 | −0.26 | 0.0 | 77% |
| Jonathan Stevenson | Great Mills High School | 1.53 | 0.91 | 2–5 | 2.4 | −0.63 | 0.2 | 85% |
| Parker Herman | Archbishop Spalding | 2.23 | 0.83 | 5–2 | 5.7 | −1.40 | 0.6 | 95% |
| Carter Telep | Broadneck High School | 1.09 | -0.45 | 1–2 | 1.5 | −1.55 | 0.5 | 96% |
| Alex Baker | Severn School | 2.26 | -0.31 | 2–1 | 2.8 | −2.57 | 1.2 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hornets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Zags | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Admirals 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Saints | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Zags | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 2-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bruins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Zags | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Zags | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 2-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Admirals 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Saints | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Zags | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Hornets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Saints | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Saints | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Bruins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Zags | 3-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
