Mamaroneck High School '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.72 (fleet 1.14) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–13 (35%) as crew 16–11 (59%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 6–2 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 1–11 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 2 | — | 16–11 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (47 matches) the record is 23–24 against 19.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-22 | NYISA-SE Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.89 | 2.21 | 6–2 | 4.9 | +1.32 | 0.8 | 29% |
| 2022-04-30 | MASSA 2022 Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.91 | 1.05 | 1–11 | 0.9 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2021-11-06 | MASSA Silver Team Race Championship | crew | 0.91 | 2.09 | 12–6 | 8.9 | +1.18 | 2.0 | 8% |
| 2021-10-23 | NYISA-SE Team Race Championship | crew | 1.86 | 1.22 | 4–5 | 4.7 | −0.63 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 75% | — |
| MASSA Fleet Championship & Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 4 | 13.2 | -0.23 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE In League 9/17/22 | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.0 | -0.06 |
| NYISA-SE In-League | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.0 | — |
| MASSA Fall Gold Fleet Champs [ACC Qualifier] | Crew | B | 6 | 9.7 | — |
| Lawrence A. White Invitational | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.4 | -0.06 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE NY State Champs | Skipper | A | 3 | 5.7 | -0.71 |
| NYISA-SE 2022 SUNY Invitational | Crew | B | 6 | 9.0 | — |
| MASSA Fleet Championship and Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 3 | 11.7 | 0.26 |
| MASSA 2022 Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 12 | 8% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| MASSA Silver Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 18 | 67% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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