| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
The Stony Brook School | Bears | 7–2 |
| 2 |  |
Rye High School | Garnets | 7–2 |
| 3 |  |
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | 4–5 |
| 4 |  |
Bay Shore High School | Marauders | 0–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,801 team race matches sailed before 2021-10-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 18 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.310 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.40 ± 0.60: a typical event, more orderly than 69% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Stony Brook School Bears | 2 | 5.38 school −0.20 | Steven Hardee / Sean Beaver 2.31 Gavin Hudson / Mairead Reitzel 2.12 Harry Fredericks / Dane Moller 1.04 | 71% | 7–2 (78%) | +0.6 |
| 2 | Rye High School Garnets | 1 | 5.53 school +0.45 | Vanessa Lahrkamp / Gunnar Wey 3.04 Quirke Declan / Emmerson Jack 0.96 Saffer Lillian / Rosenstadt Nick 0.96 | 73% | 7–2 (78%) | +0.4 |
| 3 | Mamaroneck High School Tigers | 3 | 4.43 school −0.07 | Callie Hammond / Lanie Ferrarone Margaux Cowles / Nicholas Heggerud Max Shapiro / Gabby Collins 0.83 | 52% | 4–5 (44%) | −0.7 |
| 4 | Bay Shore High School Marauders | 4 | 0.97 school +0.08 | Joe Beitch / Ryan Curley 0.47 Joe Termini / Mia Graziano Jackson Mendolia / Ty Regan | 4% | 0–9 (0%) | −0.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Stony Brook School | 5.38 | 5.96 | 7–2 | 6.4 | +0.58 | 0.2 | 47% |
| 2 | Rye High School | 5.53 | 5.90 | 7–2 | 6.6 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 54% |
| 3 | Mamaroneck High School | 4.43 | 3.80 | 4–5 | 4.7 | −0.63 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 4 | Bay Shore High School | 0.97 | -2.03 | 0–9 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Fredericks | The Stony Brook School | 1.04 | 1.61 | 7–2 | 6.4 | +0.58 | 0.2 | 47% |
| Quirke Declan | Rye High School | 0.96 | 1.33 | 7–2 | 6.6 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 54% |
| Saffer Lillian | Rye High School | 0.96 | 1.33 | 7–2 | 6.6 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 54% |
| Joe Beitch | Bay Shore High School | 0.47 | -2.53 | 0–9 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Joe Termini | Bay Shore High School | -0.11 | -3.11 | 0–9 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Jackson Mendolia | Bay Shore High School | 0.29 | -2.71 | 0–9 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Marauders | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Tigers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 1-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Garnets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Tigers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Marauders | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Marauders | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Garnets | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Marauders | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Garnets | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Marauders | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Marauders | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Garnets | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Garnets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Marauders | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Garnets | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Tigers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Marauders | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Marauders | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
The Stony Brook School | Bears | Gavin Hudson '24 Harry Fredericks '22 Steven Hardee '22 |
Mairead Reitzel '24 Dane Moller '25 Sean Beaver '23 |
|
Rye High School | Garnets | Lahrkamp Vanessa '22 Quirke Declan '22 Saffer Lillian '23 |
Gunnar Wey '24 Emmerson Jack '23 Rosenstadt Nick '22 |
|
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | Callie Hammond '24 Margaux Cowles '23 Max Shapiro '23 |
Lanie Ferrarone '24 Nicholas Heggerud '23 Gabby Collins '24 |
|
Bay Shore High School | Marauders | Jackson Mendolia '24 Joe Beitch '22 Joe Termini '23 |
Ty Regan '24 Ryan Curley '24 Mia Graziano '23 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
