Bay Shore High School '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.37 (fleet 0.60) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–21 (9%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 0–9 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 2 | 2–12 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (23 matches) the record is 2–21 against 1.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-23 | NYISA-SE Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.47 | -2.53 | 0–9 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| 2018-11-03 | 2018 MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.36 | 1.36 | 1–5 | 0.5 | +1.00 | 0.3 | 42% |
| 2018-10-13 | NYISA-SE Team Race District Championship Qualifier | skipper | 0.31 | 0.67 | 1–7 | 0.8 | +0.36 | 0.0 | 59% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 9 | 0% | — |
| NYISA-SE Fall Fleet Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.7 | 0.47 |
| NYISA-SE Fall Fleet Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.7 | -1.45 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| SUNY Maritime Fall Intersectional Invitational | Crew | A | 2 | 16.5 | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Team Race District Championship Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| NYISA-SE Fleet Champs | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.0 | -0.92 |
| 2018 MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 5 | 17% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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