NYISA-SE Fleet Champs

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 13 11 24
2 The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 27 12 39
3 St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Cougars 19 22 41
4 Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 2 21 33 54
5 Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 1 39 34 73
6 Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 3 37 43 80
7 Bay Shore High School Bay Shore High School Marauders 40 41 81
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 13 Matthew Wallace '21 [1-7]
Madeline Saffer '20 [1-4]
Van Der Voort Elizabeth '21 [5-7]
St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Cougars 3 3 4 2 2 2 3 19 Emma Worthington '19
Maggie Scott '19
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 2 4 4 1 5 1 5 1 21 Accidental Gybe '15
Capsize One '15
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 2 2 6 7 4 4 2 27 Thomas Derose '19
Hannah Dilavore '20
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 3 7 5 7 3 6 3 6 37
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 1 5 6 5 4 7 7 5 39 Tyler Medows '19 [1-7]
Caroline Greco '21 [1-4, 7]
Lauren Thompson '21 [5-6]
Bay Shore High School Bay Shore High School Marauders 6 7 3 6 5 6 7 40 Emma Beqaj '20 [1-2]
Joe Beitch '22 [3-6]
Tom Naslonski '19 [7]
Tyler Farley '19 [1-2]
Teddy Haggerty '20 [3-6]
Connor Mccormick '20 [7]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 1 1 1 2 3 2 1 11 Lise Powers '20 [1-4, 7]
Madeline Saffer '20 [5-6]
Fung Audrey '20 [1-4, 7]
Nusbaum Felix '21 [5-6]
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 2 3 2 1 1 1 2 12 Jack Crager '20
Alyssa Jette '19
St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Cougars 3 2 3 4 4 3 3 22 Dylan O'Donnell '22
Ciara Sturmann '22
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 2 4 5 5 3 5 6 5 33 Capsize Two '15
Forgot Bailer '15
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 1 5 4 7 6 2 4 6 34 Alexandra Hafen '21
Jackson Riordan '22
Bay Shore High School Bay Shore High School Marauders 6 6 4 7 6 5 7 41 Kevin Souhrada '19 [1-2]
Molly Roy '21 [3-4]
Joe Termini '23 [5-7]
Ben Finley '19 [1-2]
Mia Graziano '23 [3-4]
Gio Mesquita '20 [5-6]
Jackson Mendolia '23 [7]
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 3 7 7 6 5 7 7 4 43
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Bay Shore High SchoolBay Shore High School Marauders1133557
Rye High SchoolRye High School Garnets2244661
St. John the BaptistSt. John the Baptist Cougars3355772
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears4466113
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates 15577224
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates 26611335
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates 37722446

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Bay Shore High SchoolBay Shore High School Marauders2244661
Rye High SchoolRye High School Garnets3355772
St. John the BaptistSt. John the Baptist Cougars4466113
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears5577224
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates 16611335
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates 27722446
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates 31133557
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bay Shore High School Bay Shore High School Emma Beqaj '20 [1-2]
Joe Beitch '22 [3-6]
Tom Naslonski '19 [7]
Tyler Farley '19 [1-2]
Teddy Haggerty '20 [3-6]
Connor Mccormick '20 [7]
Marauders Kevin Souhrada '19 [1-2]
Molly Roy '21 [3-4]
Joe Termini '23 [5-7]
Ben Finley '19 [1-2]
Mia Graziano '23 [3-4]
Gio Mesquita '20 [5-6]
Jackson Mendolia '23 [7]
Rye High School Rye High School Matthew Wallace '21 [1-7] Madeline Saffer '20 [1-4]
Van Der Voort Elizabeth '21 [5-7]
Garnets Lise Powers '20 [1-4, 7]
Madeline Saffer '20 [5-6]
Fung Audrey '20 [1-4, 7]
Nusbaum Felix '21 [5-6]
St. John the Baptist St. John the Baptist Emma Worthington '19 Maggie Scott '19
Cougars Dylan O'Donnell '22 Ciara Sturmann '22
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Thomas Derose '19 Hannah Dilavore '20
Bears Jack Crager '20 Alyssa Jette '19
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Tyler Medows '19 [1-7] Caroline Greco '21 [1-4, 7]
Lauren Thompson '21 [5-6]
Pirates 1 Alexandra Hafen '21 Jackson Riordan '22
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Accidental Gybe '15 Capsize One '15
Pirates 2 Capsize Two '15 Forgot Bailer '15

Conditions — 10/06/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 76%  ·  Pressure 1023.1 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.3 kn
avg  ·  max 7.5 kn
Gusts to 17.1 kn
From SE (146°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover80% Sunshine4.7 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1023.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Bay Shore: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.21
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.22 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bay Shore by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Bay Shore, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →