Bay Shore High School '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 5–19 (21%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 | 1 | — | 3–7 |
| Fall 2018 | 2 | — | 2–12 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (24 matches) the record is 5–19 against 3.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-28 | NYISA-SE Fall Team Race Champs | crew | -0.14 | 0.26 | 3–7 | 2.5 | +0.40 | 0.1 | 48% |
| 2018-11-03 | 2018 MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | crew | -0.29 | 0.71 | 1–5 | 0.5 | +1.00 | 0.3 | 42% |
| 2018-10-13 | NYISA-SE Team Race District Championship Qualifier | crew | -0.45 | -0.09 | 1–7 | 0.8 | +0.36 | 0.0 | 59% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Fall Team Race Champs | Crew | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Team Race District Championship Qualifier | Crew | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| NYISA-SE Fleet Champs | Crew | B | 2 | 5.5 | — |
| 2018 MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 5 | 17% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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