| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses | 7–1 |
| 2 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 6–2 |
| 3 |  |
Rye High School | Garnets | 4–4 |
| 4 |  |
Ranney School | Panthers | 2–6 |
| 5 |  |
Rumson-Fair Haven | Bulldogs | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 1–4 |
| 7 |  |
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | Battlin' Baron | 5–1 |
| 8 |  |
Broadneck High School | Bruins | 4–1 |
| 9 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | 4–2 |
| 10 |  |
The Stony Brook School | Bears | 3–3 |
| 11 |  |
Great Mills High School | Hornets | 2–3 |
| 12 |  |
Leonardtown High School | Raiders | 2–4 |
| 13 |  |
Bay Shore High School | Marauders | 1–4 |
| 13 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders | 1–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 5,717 team race matches sailed before 2018-11-03, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 18 of 23 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.573 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.52 ± 0.50: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 17% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Broadneck High School | 3.97 | 5.60 | 4–1 | 2.8 | +1.63 | 1.0 | 25% |
| 13 | Bay Shore High School | 0.48 | 1.48 | 1–5 | 0.5 | +1.00 | 0.3 | 42% |
| 7 | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | 4.96 | 5.35 | 5–1 | 4.7 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 63% |
| 10 | The Stony Brook School | 3.16 | 3.37 | 3–3 | 2.8 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 13 | Poquoson High School | 2.48 | 2.53 | 2–4 | 2.0 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 9 | Norfolk Academy | 4.28 | 4.04 | 4–2 | 4.2 | −0.25 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 12 | Leonardtown High School | 3.45 | 2.52 | 2–4 | 2.8 | −0.92 | 0.4 | 89% |
| 11 | Great Mills High School | 4.11 | 2.52 | 2–3 | 3.2 | −1.59 | 1.0 | 96% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Heim | Broadneck High School | 0.66 | 2.29 | 4–1 | 2.8 | +1.63 | 1.0 | 25% |
| Will Meitz | The Stony Brook School | 0.48 | 1.68 | 2–1 | 1.5 | +1.20 | 0.3 | 47% |
| Emma Beqaj | Bay Shore High School | -0.29 | 0.71 | 1–5 | 0.5 | +1.00 | 0.3 | 42% |
| Joe Beitch | Bay Shore High School | 0.36 | 1.36 | 1–5 | 0.5 | +1.00 | 0.3 | 42% |
| Friso Grolleman | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | 1.24 | 1.63 | 5–1 | 4.7 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 63% |
| Thomas Derose | The Stony Brook School | 1.33 | 1.54 | 3–3 | 2.8 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 61% |
| Emmaline Dicarlo | Poquoson High School | -0.25 | -0.20 | 2–4 | 2.0 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Jack Mckenna | Poquoson High School | 2.02 | 2.07 | 2–4 | 2.0 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Harry Fredericks | The Stony Brook School | 0.64 | -0.02 | 1–2 | 1.3 | −0.66 | 0.1 | 85% |
| Audrey Commerford | Leonardtown High School | 0.85 | -0.07 | 2–4 | 2.8 | −0.92 | 0.4 | 89% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 2-3-6 |
| 2 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Garnets | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahorses | 2-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Panthers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Marauders | 2-3-6 DNF | def. | |
Raiders | 1-4-5 DNF,DNF |
| 8 | |
Islanders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 DNF,DNF |
| 10 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Admirals | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Panthers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Garnets | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Battlin' Baron | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Marauders | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bruins | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Garnets | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Hornets | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-3-6 |
| 20 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Marauders | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Garnets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Admirals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Bears | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Islanders | 1-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Garnets | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 1-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 DNF,DNF |
| 30 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Marauders | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Raiders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Battlin' Baron | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 1-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 1-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Hornets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Marauders | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Bruins | def. | |
Hornets | ||
| 39 | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS | def. | |
Marauders | 1-2-3 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 40 | |
Bulldogs | def. | |
Battlin' Baron | ||
| 41 | |
Bears | def. | |
Hornets | ||
| 42 | |
Bruins | def. | |
Marauders | ||
| 43 | |
Islanders | def. | |
Raiders | ||
| 44 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Garnets | 3-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-6 |
| 46 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-6 |
| 47 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Garnets | 3-4-6 |
| 48 | |
Garnets | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-6 DNF |
| 49 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Admirals | 3-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
