Broadneck High School '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.13 (fleet 1.83) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 23–42 (35%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 | 1 | 2–7 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 3 | 8–13 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 3 | 12–14 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 0–6 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 1–2 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (65 matches) the record is 23–42 against 27.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-15 | MDISA Team Race 1 | skipper | 0.69 | 0.23 | 2–7 | 2.4 | −0.45 | 0.1 | 80% |
| 2019-04-06 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 0.70 | 0.51 | 3–4 | 3.2 | −0.18 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 2019-03-23 | Severn Spring TR 12 boats | skipper | 0.55 | 1.15 | 3–4 | 2.5 | +0.60 | 0.2 | 50% |
| 2019-03-17 | MDISA Team Race | skipper | 0.70 | -0.30 | 2–5 | 3.0 | −1.00 | 0.5 | 91% |
| 2018-11-03 | 2018 MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.66 | 2.29 | 4–1 | 2.8 | +1.63 | 1.0 | 25% |
| 2018-10-27 | 2018 MDISA Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.61 | 0.54 | 6–7 | 6.1 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2018-09-23 | SSA Team Race | skipper | 0.53 | -0.84 | 2–6 | 3.5 | −1.37 | 1.1 | 95% |
| 2018-03-10 | SSA Varsity Team Race | skipper | 0.75 | -2.25 | 0–6 | 2.6 | ≤−3.00 | 4.5 | >99% |
| 2017-11-04 | MASSA 2017 Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.65 | 0.70 | 1–2 | 1.0 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 77% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Alex Heim |  Washington College |
'24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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