Washington College '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.34 (fleet 1.85) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 15–12 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 15–12 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (27 matches) the record is 15–12 against 15.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-19 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 1.33 | 0.07 | 3–12 | 6.3 | −1.26 | 2.9 | 99% |
| 2022-03-05 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 1.27 | 4.27 | 12–0 | 8.9 | ≥+3.00 | 5.2 | 2% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 100% | — |
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.1 | 1.04 |
| The Grant | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.2 | 2.30 |
| America Trophy - MAISA Open Dinghy Championships | Skipper | B | 13 | 11.7 | 2.41 |
| 84th Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 5 | 14.0 | 0.21 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| John Quinn | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.4 | -0.39 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA South Coed Conference Championships | Skipper | B | 8 | 13.6 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Alex Heim |  Broadneck High School |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
