MASSA Fall SILVER Fleet Champs

HostNJISA, TRYC & OCC
Date10/20/2018
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Key School	Zags	48	86	134
2	The Stony Brook School	Bears	83	57	140
3	Summit High School	Hilltoppers	84	57	141
4	Broadneck High School	Bruins	28	114	142
5	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	110	33	143
6	Conestoga High School	Pioneers	106	41	147
7	Toms River South	Indians	57	93	150
8	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Battlin' Baron	71	80	151
9	Annapolis High School	Panthers	90	67	157
10	Grafton High School	Varsity	83	87	170
11	Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Varsity	63	123	186
12	York High School	Varsity	93	106	199
13	Kecoughtan High School	Warriors	123	99	222
14	Pittsford High School	Knights	127	98	225
15	St. John the Baptist	Cougars	128	119	247
16	Peninsula Catholic High School	Knights	98	174	272
17	Williamsville North	Spartans	147	127	274
18	Fairport High School	Red Raiders	174	153	327

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Broadneck High School	Bruins	2	2	1	3	3	1	3	5	3	5	28	Emma Snead '19 Lucien Parker '20
Key School	Zags	3	1	9	5	10	4	4	2	6	4	48	Charles Anderson '21 Molly Roden '22
Toms River South	Indians	1	3	6	6	1	2	8	11	9	10	57	Zach Higham '19 Paige Zelenak '19
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Varsity	12	9	5	1	6	3	1	9	4	13	63	Patrick Modin '19 Harrison Quinn '20
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Battlin' Baron	4	10	3	10	4	10	13	15	1	1	71	Nick Budington '21 Liam Gronda '21
The Stony Brook School	Bears	5	4	4	7	DSQ	DSQ	7	4	12	2	83	Thomas Derose '19 [1-10] Joshua Pavao '20 [1-4, 7-8] Will Meitz '19 [5-6, 9-10]
Grafton High School	Varsity	9	6	11	9	2	6	12	7	7	14	83	Madeline Amthor '22 Lenore Dougherty '20
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	8	8	8	2	8	12	11	6	15	6	84	Sean Groskoph '20 Malcolm Harrison '19
Annapolis High School	Panthers	10	5	2	17	15	9	2	8	10	12	90	Thomas Johnson '20 Isabella Fadullon '23
York High School	Varsity	16	7	DSQ	14	9	8	6	3	2	9	93	Brian Fox '19 Charlie Gibson '20
Peninsula Catholic High School	Knights	6	13	10	15	11	14	9	1	8	11	98	Britt Cortina '20 Gracie Harris '20
Conestoga High School	Pioneers	7	14	12	11	12	15	5	10	13	7	106	Garrett Roach '20 Justin Roach '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	17	11	7	13	7	7	16	12	17	3	110	Ryan Mullins '19 [1-2, 9-10] Quinn Harrington '19 [3-8] Walter Mehl '21 [1-8] Joseph David '20 [9-10]
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors	13	16	13	12	16	5	15	14	11	8	123	Cole Handly '19 [1-4, 9-10] Gavin Smith '21 [5-8] Tyler Brown '23 [1-4] Tyson Denton '21 [5-8] Tori Dixon '20 [9-10]
Pittsford High School	Knights	11	12	16	16	14	11	14	13	5	15	127	Olivia Callon '20 Sierra Bornheim '20
St. John the Baptist	Cougars	14	17	15	8	5	13	10	16	14	16	128	Emma Worthington '19 Maggie Scott '19
Williamsville North	Spartans	15	15	14	4	13	16	17	18	18	17	147	Sydney Kelsch '22 Nicholas Barillari '22
Fairport High School	Red Raiders	18	18	17	18	17	17	18	17	16	18	174	Megan Thurley '21 Tori Mullaney '20

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	6	4	6	2	2	3	2	1	2	5	33	Ryan Ehnot '22 Justin Modin '19
Conestoga High School	Pioneers	3	1	2	1	1	1	DSQ	6	6	1	41	Charlie Mckenzie '21 Emily Dougherty '21
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	1	6	11	4	8	7	8	7	1	4	57	Sophie Lusty '20 [1-4, 9-10] Hannah Mercurio '20 [5-8] Mia Chmelar '19 [1-4, 9-10]
The Stony Brook School	Bears	10	8	3	3	9	6	4	3	8	3	57	Jack Crager '20 Margaret Hunt '19
Annapolis High School	Panthers	7	5	5	7	6	11	1	8	4	13	67	Carter O'Neill '20 [1-10] Ava Walker '20 [1-4, 6, 9-10] Adam Ginsburg '23 [5, 7-8]
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Battlin' Baron	2	2	14	6	12	10	7	11	5	11	80	Matt Budington '21 [1-4, 7-10] Friso Grolleman '20 [5-6] Ryan Tatelbaum '21 [1-4, 7-10] C. Augie Spendley '19 [5-6]
Key School	Zags	16	10	12	8	3	9	6	2	13	7	86	Luke Koerschner '20 [1-10] Emma Kissel '22 [1-2] Max Shapiro '20 [3-10]
Grafton High School	Varsity	15	3	4	13	4	DSQ	5	4	11	9	87	Haydon Gould '19 Christopher Raab '20
Toms River South	Indians	8	14	1	15	7	2	10	12	10	14	93	Alexa Carles '19 [1-4, 7-8] Leo Krajewski '19 [5-6, 9-10] Jack Parks '21 [1-4, 7-8] Sonja Krajewski '22 [5-6] Alexa Carles '19 [9-10]
Pittsford High School	Knights	4	15	8	11	15	4	11	17	3	10	98	Lena Fine '21 [1-10] Pierson Deloe '20 [1-4, 9-10] Peter Higgins '22 [5-8]
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors	12	7	7	10	17	15	3	13	7	8	99	Sam Brady '19 [1-10] Laura Rhodes '20 [1-4, 7-10] Grace Bridges '20 [5-6]
York High School	Varsity	11	9	18	12	5	5	14	10	16	6	106	Kai Vylet '19 Ethan White '21
Broadneck High School	Bruins	17	16	9	5	13	13	9	5	12	15	114	Morgan Carew '21 [1-2] Alex Heim '20 [3-10] Josh Becker '20 [1-2, 5-8] Will Sizemore '20 [3-4, 9-10]
St. John the Baptist	Cougars	13	11	10	17	10	12	DSQ	16	9	2	119	Dylan O'Donnell '22 [1-6] Ean Larocca '20 [7-10] Sofia Scarpa '22 [1-6]
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Varsity	5	13	15	9	11	8	13	14	17	18	123	Topher Lucyk '20 Shane Mccutcheon '20
Williamsville North	Spartans	9	12	13	16	14	16	12	9	14	12	127	Matthew Kennedy '20 Joshua Bloom '19
Fairport High School	Red Raiders	14	18	16	14	16	14	15	15	15	16	153	Cameron Bernabei '21 Amy Frankovich '20
Peninsula Catholic High School	Knights	18	17	17	18	18	17	16	18	18	17	174	Will Robertson '21 [1-10] Katie Fremaux '20 [1-2, 5-10] Jacob Fugere '20 [3-4]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A
Annapolis High School Panthers	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Broadneck High School Bruins	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Conestoga High School Pioneers	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Fairport High School Red Raiders	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Grafton High School Varsity	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Kecoughtan High School Warriors	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Key School Zags	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Varsity	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18
Peninsula Catholic High School Knights	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1
Pittsford High School Knights	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2
St. John the Baptist Cougars	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3
Summit High School Hilltoppers	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4
The Stony Brook School Bears	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5
Toms River South Indians	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6
Williamsville North Spartans	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
York High School Varsity	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B
Annapolis High School Panthers	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Broadneck High School Bruins	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Conestoga High School Pioneers	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Fairport High School Red Raiders	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Grafton High School Varsity	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Kecoughtan High School Warriors	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
Key School Zags	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Varsity	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1
Peninsula Catholic High School Knights	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2
Pittsford High School Knights	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3
St. John the Baptist Cougars	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4
Summit High School Hilltoppers	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5
The Stony Brook School Bears	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6
Toms River South Indians	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Williamsville North Spartans	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
York High School Varsity	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Annapolis High School	Thomas Johnson '20	Isabella Fadullon '23
Panthers	Carter O'Neill '20 [1-10]	Ava Walker '20 [1-4, 6, 9-10] Adam Ginsburg '23 [5, 7-8]
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Nick Budington '21	Liam Gronda '21
Battlin' Baron	Matt Budington '21 [1-4, 7-10] Friso Grolleman '20 [5-6]	Ryan Tatelbaum '21 [1-4, 7-10] C. Augie Spendley '19 [5-6]
Broadneck High School	Emma Snead '19	Lucien Parker '20
Bruins	Morgan Carew '21 [1-2] Alex Heim '20 [3-10]	Josh Becker '20 [1-2, 5-8] Will Sizemore '20 [3-4, 9-10]
Christian Brothers Academy	Ryan Mullins '19 [1-2, 9-10] Quinn Harrington '19 [3-8]	Walter Mehl '21 [1-8] Joseph David '20 [9-10]
Colts	Ryan Ehnot '22	Justin Modin '19
Conestoga High School	Garrett Roach '20	Justin Roach '20
Pioneers	Charlie Mckenzie '21	Emily Dougherty '21
Fairport High School	Megan Thurley '21	Tori Mullaney '20
Red Raiders	Cameron Bernabei '21	Amy Frankovich '20
Grafton High School	Madeline Amthor '22	Lenore Dougherty '20
Varsity	Haydon Gould '19	Christopher Raab '20
Kecoughtan High School	Cole Handly '19 [1-4, 9-10] Gavin Smith '21 [5-8]	Tyler Brown '23 [1-4] Tyson Denton '21 [5-8] Tori Dixon '20 [9-10]
Warriors	Sam Brady '19 [1-10]	Laura Rhodes '20 [1-4, 7-10] Grace Bridges '20 [5-6]
Key School	Charles Anderson '21	Molly Roden '22
Zags	Luke Koerschner '20 [1-10]	Emma Kissel '22 [1-2] Max Shapiro '20 [3-10]
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Patrick Modin '19	Harrison Quinn '20
Varsity	Topher Lucyk '20	Shane Mccutcheon '20
Peninsula Catholic High School	Britt Cortina '20	Gracie Harris '20
Knights	Will Robertson '21 [1-10]	Katie Fremaux '20 [1-2, 5-10] Jacob Fugere '20 [3-4]
Pittsford High School	Olivia Callon '20	Sierra Bornheim '20
Knights	Lena Fine '21 [1-10]	Pierson Deloe '20 [1-4, 9-10] Peter Higgins '22 [5-8]
St. John the Baptist	Emma Worthington '19	Maggie Scott '19
Cougars	Dylan O'Donnell '22 [1-6] Ean Larocca '20 [7-10]	Sofia Scarpa '22 [1-6]
Summit High School	Sean Groskoph '20	Malcolm Harrison '19
Hilltoppers	Sophie Lusty '20 [1-4, 9-10] Hannah Mercurio '20 [5-8]	Mia Chmelar '19 [1-4, 9-10]
The Stony Brook School	Thomas Derose '19 [1-10]	Joshua Pavao '20 [1-4, 7-8] Will Meitz '19 [5-6, 9-10]
Bears	Jack Crager '20	Margaret Hunt '19
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19	Paige Zelenak '19
Indians	Alexa Carles '19 [1-4, 7-8] Leo Krajewski '19 [5-6, 9-10]	Jack Parks '21 [1-4, 7-8] Sonja Krajewski '22 [5-6] Alexa Carles '19 [9-10]
Williamsville North	Sydney Kelsch '22	Nicholas Barillari '22
Spartans	Matthew Kennedy '20	Joshua Bloom '19
York High School	Brian Fox '19	Charlie Gibson '20
Varsity	Kai Vylet '19	Ethan White '21

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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MASSA Fall SILVER Fleet Champs

Division A

Division B

From the notes