| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 10–0 |
| 2 |  |
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | Battlin' Baron | 7–3 |
| 3 |  |
St. Mary's High School (MD) | Saints | 5–5 |
| 4 |  |
Great Mills High School | Hornets | 3–7 |
| 5 |  |
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | 3–4 |
| 6 |  |
Leonardtown High School | Raiders | 3–4 |
| 7 |  |
Broadneck High School | Bruins | 3–4 |
| 8 |  |
Severna Park | Falcons | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 5,898 team race matches sailed before 2019-04-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 25 of 34 matches (74%) with a log-loss of 0.384 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.30 ± 0.38: a typical event, more orderly than 22% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School | 9.24 | 12.24 | 10–0 | 9.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 67% |
| 5 | Archbishop Spalding | 2.68 | 4.22 | 3–4 | 1.7 | +1.54 | 1.1 | 20% |
| 2 | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | 5.63 | 6.95 | 7–3 | 5.8 | +1.32 | 0.9 | 27% |
| 6 | Leonardtown High School | 3.78 | 4.02 | 3–4 | 2.8 | +0.24 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 7 | Broadneck High School | 4.12 | 3.94 | 3–4 | 3.2 | −0.18 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 4 | Great Mills High School | 3.99 | 3.65 | 3–7 | 3.4 | −0.35 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 3 | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 6.46 | 4.68 | 5–5 | 7.0 | −1.78 | 2.1 | 99% |
| 8 | Severna Park | 1.16 | -1.84 | 0–7 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anna Groszkowski | Archbishop Spalding | 0.83 | 2.37 | 3–4 | 1.7 | +1.54 | 1.1 | 20% |
| Ava Farley | Archbishop Spalding | 1.14 | 2.67 | 3–4 | 1.7 | +1.54 | 1.1 | 20% |
| Friso Grolleman | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | 1.33 | 2.65 | 7–3 | 5.8 | +1.32 | 0.9 | 27% |
| Audrey Commerford | Leonardtown High School | 0.85 | 1.10 | 3–4 | 2.8 | +0.24 | 0.0 | 61% |
| Alex Heim | Broadneck High School | 0.70 | 0.51 | 3–4 | 3.2 | −0.18 | 0.0 | 74% |
| James Golden | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 2.12 | 0.33 | 5–5 | 7.0 | −1.78 | 2.1 | 99% |
| Chase Conway | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 1.86 | 0.08 | 5–5 | 7.0 | −1.78 | 2.1 | 99% |
| Connor Killeen | Severna Park | 0.94 | -2.06 | 0–7 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| No Show | Severna Park | 0.47 | -2.53 | 0–7 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| Douglas Patrick | Severna Park | 0.30 | -2.70 | 0–7 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hornets | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 2-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Battlin' Baron | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Bruins | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Saints | 2-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Battlin' Baron | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Saints | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Hornets | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Cavaliers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 1-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Raiders | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 1-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Cavaliers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Bruins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Battlin' Baron | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Saints | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 1-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Battlin' Baron | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Raiders | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 2-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Hornets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Saints | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Saints | 2-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Battlin' Baron | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Admirals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-5 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
