Severn School '20
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 65.54 percentile among ISSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.110 rating points from 36 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.33 (fleet 0.53) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 91–9 (91%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 | 1 | — | 6–1 |
| Spring 2019 | 5 | — | 48–7 |
| Fall 2018 | 3 | — | 19–1 |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | — | 10–0 |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | — | 4–0 |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | — | 4–0 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 12 graded regattas (100 matches) the record is 91–9 against 87.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-11-02 | MASSA Team Race Championship | crew | 3.43 | 1.39 | 6–1 | 6.8 | −2.04 | 1.1 | 98% |
| 2019-05-25 | ISSA Team Racing Championship (Baker Trophy) | crew | 2.73 | 1.23 | 8–4 | 10.3 | −1.50 | 2.1 | 98% |
| 2019-04-27 | MASSA Team Race Championship (Baker Qualifier) | crew | 2.68 | 3.50 | 13–2 | 11.9 | +0.82 | 0.5 | 34% |
| 2019-04-06 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | crew | 2.69 | 5.69 | 8–0 | 7.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 72% |
| 2019-03-23 | Severn Spring TR 12 boats | crew | 2.56 | 2.97 | 9–1 | 8.8 | +0.41 | 0.1 | 64% |
| 2019-03-17 | MDISA Team Race | crew | 2.52 | 5.52 | 10–0 | 9.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.6 | 63% |
| 2018-10-27 | 2018 MDISA Fall Team Race Championship | crew | 2.67 | 5.67 | 6–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 57% |
| 2018-09-29 | Severn School Team Race | crew | 2.17 | 3.10 | 5–1 | 4.6 | +0.94 | 0.2 | 58% |
| 2018-09-23 | SSA Team Race | crew | 2.13 | 5.13 | 8–0 | 7.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.6 | 64% |
| 2018-03-18 | DC Sail TR | crew | 2.18 | 5.18 | 10–0 | 8.7 | ≥+3.00 | 1.8 | 25% |
| 2017-10-08 | MDISA Fall Team Race Championship | crew | 2.18 | 5.18 | 4–0 | 3.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 77% |
| 2017-05-06 | Saints Peter & Paul Team Race Regatta | crew | 1.90 | 4.90 | 4–0 | 2.3 | ≥+3.00 | 3.5 | 5% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| MASSA Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 16 | 94% | — |
| Maryland State Championship | Crew | A | 8 | 2.6 | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Severn Spring TR 12 boats | Crew | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| MDISA Team Race Qualifier | Crew | TR | 10 | 100% | — |
| MDISA Team Race | Crew | TR | 10 | 100% | — |
| MDISA Fleet Qualifier | Crew | B | 4 | 1.8 | — |
| MASSA Team Race Championship (Baker Qualifier) | Crew | TR | 21 | 90% | — |
| ISSA Team Racing Championship (Baker Trophy) | Crew | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SSA Team Race | Crew | TR | 8 | 100% | — |
| 2018 MDISA Fall Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 8 | 100% | — |
| 2018 Atlantic Coast Championship | Crew | B | 5 | 7.4 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Phebe Corckran King Memorial Trophy | Crew | B | 11 | 3.4 | — |
| DC Sail TR | Crew | TR | 7 | 100% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SCC Varsity | Crew | A | 6 | 4.7 | — |
| MDISA Fall Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 8 | 100% | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Saints Peter & Paul Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | — | — | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| SCC Fleet Race | Crew | B | 2 | 3.5 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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