| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals 2 | 0–0 |
| 2 | |
Severn School | Admirals 1 | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
Edmund Burke School | Bengals | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
Saints Peter & Paul High School | Sabres | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
Leonardtown High | Raiders | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 3,374 team race matches sailed before 2017-05-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 4 of 6 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.504 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School Admirals 2 | 2 | 6.97 school +0.39 | Jordan Bruce / Andrea Riefkohl 1.90 Sam Bruce / Ryan Wahba 2.08 Mariner Fagan / Abby Tindall 2.53 | 57% | 4–0 (100%) | +1.7 |
| 2 | Severn School Admirals 1 | 1 | 8.29 school +0.39 | Connor Bayless / Hayden Lamb 2.93 Stephanie Houck / Aidan Morgan 2.66 Caroline Bayless / Sophie Taczak 2.29 | 84% | 2–2 (50%) | −1.4 |
| 3 | Edmund Burke School Bengals | 3 | 4.46 school −0.10 | Casey Cabot / Genevieve Dickinson 2.29 Tye Rubin / River Carson 1.55 Talia Frank | 9% | 0–4 (0%) | −0.3 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School Admirals 2 | 6.97 | 9.97 | 4–0 | 2.3 | ≥+3.00 | 3.5 | 5% |
| 2 | Severn School Admirals 1 | 8.29 | 5.73 | 2–2 | 3.4 | −2.57 | 2.1 | 99% |
| 3 | Edmund Burke School Bengals | 4.46 | 1.46 | 0–4 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talia Frank | Edmund Burke School | 0.71 | -2.29 | 0–4 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Severn School Admirals 2 | Edmund Burke School Bengals | 87% | |
| 1 | 5 | Severn School Admirals 1 | Edmund Burke School Bengals | 95% | |
| 1 | 9 | Severn School Admirals 2 | Severn School Admirals 1 | 26% | upset |
| 4 | 11 | Severn School Admirals 1 | Edmund Burke School Bengals | 95% | |
| 4 | 14 | Severn School Admirals 2 | Edmund Burke School Bengals | 88% | |
| 4 | 16 | Severn School Admirals 2 | Severn School Admirals 1 | 27% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bengals | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bengals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sabres | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bengals | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sabres | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Bengals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sabres | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Admirals 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Admirals 1 | 1-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Sabres | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Admirals 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bengals | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sabres | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Admirals 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sabres | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Admirals 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bengals | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bengals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sabres | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Admirals 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Admirals 1 | 1-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Severn School | Admirals 2 | Jordan Bruce '20 Mariner Fagan '20 Sam Bruce '20 |
Andrea Riefkohl '20 Abby Tindall '19 Ryan Wahba '20 |
|
Severn School | Admirals 1 | Caroline Bayless '19 Connor Bayless '17 Stephanie Houck '17 |
Sophie Taczak '17 Hayden Lamb '20 Aidan Morgan '17 |
|
Edmund Burke School | Bengals | Casey Cabot '17 Talia Frank '17 Tye Rubin '17 |
Genevieve Dickinson '17 River Carson '17 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.30 means a rating gap counts about 26% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
