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MASSA Team Race Championship

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 15–1
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 14–2
3 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 10–6
4 Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 10–6
5 Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 8–8
6 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 7–9
7 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 9–7
8 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 6–10
9 The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 5–11
10 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 5–11
11 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 5–11
12 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 6,934 team race matches sailed before 2019-11-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 18 of 21 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.519 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.72 ± 0.54: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 12% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Severn School
Admirals		19.65
school +0.09		Mariner Fagan / Ryan Wahba 3.26
Maddie Hawkins / Andrea Riefkohl 3.43
Sam Bruce / Addi Harris 2.88 5–1
Sam Bruce / Rees Tindall 2.84 1–0		97%6–1 (86%)−0.8
3Norfolk Collegiate School
Oaks		45.59
school −0.17		Alex Schuck / Adam Elci 2.21
Harrison Thomson / Sam Beck 2.17
Robert Chase / Clara Murphy 1.17 3–1
Maggie Campbell / Clara Murphy 1–2		44%4–3 (57%)+0.9
5Rumson-Fair Haven
Bulldogs		35.67
school +0.17		Colleen O'Brien / Sophie Harrington 2.29
Fritz Sellig / Owen Geohegan 0.93
Michaela O'Brien / Amelia Buch 2.19		48%5–2 (71%)+1.7
9The Stony Brook School
Bears		25.29
school +0.08		Lilly Jette / Harry Fredericks 1.45
Jack Crager / Isabella Seminario 1.67 1–3
Steven Hardee / Julia Evans 2.08 1–3
Jack Crager / Julia Evans 1.59 2–1
Steven Hardee / Isabella Seminario 2.14 2–1		59%3–4 (43%)−1.1
11Great Mills High School
Hornets		54.01
school −0.07		Olivia Sowa / Braedon Myers 1.80
Lucy Paskoff / Jonathan Stevenson 1.31
Lochlann Ludwig / Clare Greenwell 0.89		30%2–5 (29%)−0.1
12Poquoson High School
Islanders		63.52
school +0.17		Jack Mckenna / Emmaline Dicarlo 2.16
Eleanor Patterson / Claire Dicarlo 0.78 0–5
Chase Brewer / Ashlyn Wise 0.68 0–5
Chase Brewer / Eleanor Patterson 0.62 1–1
Ashlyn Wise / Claire Dicarlo -0.16 1–1		22%1–6 (14%)−0.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
5Rumson-Fair Haven5.677.985–23.3+2.312.013%
3Norfolk Collegiate School5.596.624–33.1+1.030.536%
11Great Mills High School4.013.902–52.1−0.100.069%
12Poquoson High School3.522.741–61.5−0.780.285%
9The Stony Brook School5.294.093–44.1−1.200.894%
1Severn School9.657.626–16.8−2.041.198%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Fritz SelligRumson-Fair Haven0.933.245–23.3+2.312.013%
Alex SchuckNorfolk Collegiate School2.213.244–33.1+1.030.536%
Maggie CampbellNorfolk Collegiate School1.541.991–20.9+0.460.084%
Jack MckennaPoquoson High School2.161.381–61.5−0.780.285%
Lilly JetteThe Stony Brook School1.450.253–44.1−1.200.894%
Eleanor PattersonPoquoson High School0.78-2.220–51.3≤−3.002.1>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Norfolk Collegiate SchoolThe Stony Brook School52%
12Rumson-Fair HavenPoquoson High School80%
13Severn SchoolGreat Mills High School99%
17Norfolk Collegiate SchoolRumson-Fair Haven46%upset
18The Stony Brook SchoolGreat Mills High School73%
19Severn SchoolPoquoson High School99%
113Rumson-Fair HavenGreat Mills High School78%
114Norfolk Collegiate SchoolPoquoson High School82%
115Severn SchoolThe Stony Brook School97%
119Great Mills High SchoolPoquoson High School54%
120Rumson-Fair HavenThe Stony Brook School58%
121Severn SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School95%
125Poquoson High SchoolThe Stony Brook School12%upset
126Norfolk Collegiate SchoolGreat Mills High School76%
127Severn SchoolRumson-Fair Haven96%
173Rumson-Fair HavenSevern School4%upset
176The Stony Brook SchoolGreat Mills High School73%
187Rumson-Fair HavenNorfolk Collegiate School55%
190The Stony Brook SchoolPoquoson High School88%
193Severn SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School95%
196Great Mills High SchoolPoquoson High School55%
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-2-3 def. The Stony Brook School Bears 4-5-6
2 Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 3-5-6
3 Severn School Admirals 1-2-4 def. Great Mills High School Hornets 3-5-6
4 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 1-2-6 def. Leonardtown High School Raiders 3-4-5
5 Rye High School Garnets 1-2-6 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 3-4-5
6 Christchurch School Seahorses 1-2-4 def. Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 3-5-6
7 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-2-4 def. Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 3-5-6
8 The Stony Brook School Bears 1-2-5 def. Great Mills High School Hornets 3-4-6
9 Severn School Admirals 1-2-3 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 4-5-6
10 Rye High School Garnets 1-2-6 def. Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 3-4-5
11 Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 1-2-4 def. Leonardtown High School Raiders 3-5-6
12 Christchurch School Seahorses 1-2-3 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 4-5-6
13 Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. Great Mills High School Hornets 1-5-6
14 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-3-4 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 2-5-6
15 Severn School Admirals 1-2-3 def. The Stony Brook School Bears 4-5-6
16 Rye High School Garnets 2-3-4 def. Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 1-5-6
17 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 1-3-4 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2-5-6
18 Christchurch School Seahorses 1-2-4 def. Leonardtown High School Raiders 3-5-6
19 Great Mills High School Hornets 1-2-3 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 4-5-6
20 Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. The Stony Brook School Bears 3-4-6
21 Severn School Admirals 1-2-3 def. Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 4-5-6
22 Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1-2-6 def. Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 3-4-5
23 Rye High School Garnets 1-2-3 def. Leonardtown High School Raiders 4-5-6
24 Christchurch School Seahorses 1-2-4 def. Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 3-5-6
25 Poquoson High School Islanders 1-2-4 def. The Stony Brook School Bears 3-5-6
26 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-3-5 def. Great Mills High School Hornets 2-4-6
27 Severn School Admirals 1-2-4 def. Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 3-5-6
28 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 1-3-6 def. Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 2-4-5
29 Christchurch School Seahorses 1-2-6 def. Rye High School Garnets 3-4-5
30 Leonardtown High School Raiders 1-4-5 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2-3-6
31 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2-3-4 def. Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 1-5-6
32 Severn School Admirals 1-2-3 def. Christchurch School Seahorses 4-5-6
33 Rye High School Garnets 1-2-6 def. Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 3-4-5
34 Leonardtown High School Raiders 1-3-6 def. The Stony Brook School Bears 2-4-5
35 Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 3-5-6
36 Great Mills High School Hornets 1-3-5 def. Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 2-4-6
37 Christchurch School Seahorses 2-3-4 def. Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1-5-6
38 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-2-6 def. Rye High School Garnets 3-4-5
39 Severn School Admirals 1-2-5 def. Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 3-4-6
40 Leonardtown High School Raiders 1-2-4 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 3-5-6
41 Great Mills High School Hornets 1-3-5 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2-4-6
42 The Stony Brook School Bears 1-2-4 def. Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 3-5-6
43 Severn School Admirals 1-2-5 def. Rye High School Garnets 3-4-6
44 Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1-3-4 def. Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 2-5-6
45 Christchurch School Seahorses 1-2-3 def. Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 4-5-6
46 Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. The Stony Brook School Bears 3-5-6
47 Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 2-3-4 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 1-5-6
48 Leonardtown High School Raiders 1-2-6 def. Great Mills High School Hornets 3-4-5
49 Christchurch School Seahorses 1-2-5 def. The Stony Brook School Bears 3-4-6
50 Rye High School Garnets 1-3-4 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 2-5-6
51 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 1-3-4 def. Great Mills High School Hornets 2-5-6
52 Severn School Admirals 1-2-3 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 4-5-6
53 Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 1-5-6
54 Leonardtown High School Raiders 2-3-5 def. Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-4-6
55 Christchurch School Seahorses 1-2-3 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 4-5-6
56 Rye High School Garnets 1-2-3 def. Great Mills High School Hornets 4-5-6
57 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 1-2-3 def. The Stony Brook School Bears 4-5-6
58 Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 3-4-6
59 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-2-3 def. Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 4-5-6
60 Severn School Admirals 1-2-3 def. Leonardtown High School Raiders 4-5-6
61 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 1-2-3 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 4-5-6
62 Christchurch School Seahorses 1-2-5 def. Great Mills High School Hornets 3-4-6
63 Rye High School Garnets 1-2-4 def. The Stony Brook School Bears 3-5-6
64 Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. Leonardtown High School Raiders 1-5-6
65 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-3-4 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2-5-6
66 Severn School Admirals 1-2-3 def. Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 4-5-6
67 Christchurch School Seahorses 1-2-4 def. Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 3-5-6
68 Severn School Admirals 1-2-3 def. Rye High School Garnets 4-5-6
69 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-2-6 def. Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 3-4-5
70 Leonardtown High School Raiders 1-2-4 def. The Stony Brook School Bears 3-5-6
71 Great Mills High School Hornets 3-4-6 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1-2-5 DSQ
72 Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 2-3-5 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 1-4-6
73 Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2-3-5 def. Severn School Admirals 1-4-6
74 Christchurch School Seahorses 1-2-4 def. Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 3-5-6
75 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-2-5 def. Rye High School Garnets 3-4-6
76 The Stony Brook School Bears 1-3-6 def. Great Mills High School Hornets 2-4-5
77 Leonardtown High School Raiders 1-2-6 def. Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 3-4-5
78 Poquoson High School Islanders 3-4-6 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1-2-5 DSQ
79 Severn School Admirals 1-2-4 def. Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 3-5-6
80 Rye High School Garnets 1-2-3 def. Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 4-5-6
81 Christchurch School Seahorses 1-2-6 def. Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3-4-5
82 Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 1-3-5 def. Great Mills High School Hornets 2-4-6
83 The Stony Brook School Bears 2-3-4 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1-5-6
84 Leonardtown High School Raiders 1-3-5 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 2-4-6
85 Rye High School Garnets 1-3-4 def. Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 2-5-6
86 Severn School Admirals 1-2-3 def. Christchurch School Seahorses 4-5-6
87 Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1-2-6 def. Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3-4-5
88 Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1-4-5 def. Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 2-3-6
89 Leonardtown High School Raiders 1-2-4 def. Great Mills High School Hornets 3-5-6
90 The Stony Brook School Bears 1-3-4 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 2-5-6
91 Christchurch School Seahorses 1-3-5 def. Rye High School Garnets 2-4-6
92 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 1-2-6 def. Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 3-4-5
93 Severn School Admirals 1-2-5 def. Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3-4-6
94 Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1-3-6 def. Leonardtown High School Raiders 2-4-5
95 Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 1-2-5 def. The Stony Brook School Bears 3-4-6
96 Great Mills High School Hornets 2-3-4 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 1-5-6

Conditions — 11/02/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1021.3 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.7 kn
avg  ·  max 7.4 kn
Gusts to 15.0 kn
From NE (50°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover57% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1021.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled fleet-race days at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →