Norfolk Collegiate School '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.14 (fleet 3.46) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 45–34 (57%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 3 | 18–9 | — |
| Fall 2019 | 3 | 11–7 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 4 | 16–18 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (78 matches) the record is 44–34 against 39.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-24 | MASSA Baker Team Race Qualifiers | skipper | 2.43 | 2.91 | 11–6 | 10.0 | +0.48 | 0.3 | 38% |
| 2021-04-17 | VISA Team Race Championship and Qualifier | skipper | 2.41 | 0.68 | 3–3 | 4.5 | −1.73 | 1.5 | 98% |
| 2021-03-20 | VISA CCS Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.00 | 5.00 | 4–0 | 3.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.6 | 29% |
| 2019-11-02 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.21 | 3.24 | 4–3 | 3.1 | +1.03 | 0.5 | 36% |
| 2019-10-12 | VISA NCS Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.14 | 2.45 | 5–3 | 4.7 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 56% |
| 2019-09-19 | VISA Southside Team Race | skipper | 2.07 | 2.86 | 2–1 | 1.6 | +0.79 | 0.2 | 53% |
| 2019-05-25 | NIT (Founders Trophy) | skipper | 1.75 | 4.75 | 3–0 | 1.5 | ≥+3.00 | 2.8 | 10% |
| 2019-04-27 | MASSA Team Race Championship (Baker Qualifier) | skipper | 1.76 | 2.22 | 9–12 | 7.9 | +0.46 | 0.3 | 36% |
| 2019-04-06 | VISA NCS Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.56 | 1.35 | 3–6 | 3.2 | −0.21 | 0.0 | 73% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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