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VISA Fleet Race Championship

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 9 11 20
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 17 10 27
3 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 22 16 38
4 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 4 22 26 48
5 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 47 27 74
6 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 39 42 81
7 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 23 58 81
8 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 41 43 84
9 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 29 60 89
10 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 45 52 97
11 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 5 54 61 115
12 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 51 69 120
13 Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Knights 59 72 131
14 York High School York High School Varsity 70 69 139
15 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans 89 62 151
16 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1 78 76 154
17 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 74 100 174
18 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 6 101 86 187
19 Tabb High School Tabb High School Varsity 102 91 193
20 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 2 103 98 201
21 Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 104 106 210
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 1 4 1 2 9 Boyd Bragg '19
Tristan Elden '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 5 6 2 3 1 17 Nathan Smith '20
Reese Bragg '21
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 4 2 5 5 6 22 Chris Robertson '19
Matt Wright '19
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 4 7 3 1 8 3 22 Mariana Guzman Casas '19
Jeff Elkin '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 6 4 6 2 5 23 Benton Amthor '19
Carson Rozell '19
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 5 3 6 13 29 Jack Mckenna '20
Emmaline Dicarlo '20
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 3 7 7 12 10 39 Harrison Thomson '22 [1-2, 5]
Alex Schuck '21 [3-4]
Sam Beck '21 [1-2, 5]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 11 9 10 7 4 41 Jennifer Permenter '21
Cameron Lloyd '19
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 8 10 8 11 8 45 Sam Brady '19
Laura Rhodes '20
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 12 11 9 4 11 47 Michael Hostutler '20 [1-2, 4-5]
Henry Allgeier '23 [3]
Mihir Damle '19 [1-2, 4-5]
Michael Hostutler '20 [3]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 10 8 13 13 7 51 Kyle Pfrang '22 [1-5]
Hunter Sznoluch '19 [1-2]
Alex Wilkerson '19 [3-5]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 5 9 15 11 10 9 54 Charlie Li '20
Weichen Zhao '20
Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Knights 14 12 12 9 12 59 Britt Cortina '20
Gracie Harris '20
York High School York High School Varsity 13 13 14 14 16 70 Brian Fox '19
Charlie Gibson '20
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 16 14 15 15 14 74 Tyler Brown '23
Alexandra Smith '23
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1 15 16 16 16 15 78 Alex Kitay '19
Ethan Kutner '18
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans 20 18 17 17 17 89 Ronan Donovan '19
Maddy O'Connell '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 6 18 17 DNF DNS DNS 101 Egecan Tezcan '19
Peyton Smith '21
Tabb High School Tabb High School Varsity DNF DNF DNS 18 18 102 David Hanna '21 [1-2]
Elias Rooker '23 [3-5]
Jude Link '22 [1-2]
Zack George '19 [3-5]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 2 17 20 DNS DNS DNS 103 Scott Spencer '19
Nathan Hoege '19
Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 19 19 DNS DNS DNS 104 Tori Dixon '20
Gavin Miller '23
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 2 3 1 1 3 10 Gannon Troutman '21
Clare Elden Gaule '21
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 3 2 2 2 2 11 John Vail '20
Anna Flynn '20
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 1 1 9 4 1 16 Parker Purrington '19
Ray Domena '19
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 4 6 4 3 8 5 26 Lucas Masiello '19
Jordan Bayliss '21
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 7 7 4 5 4 27 Charlie Britt '21
Ali Zaidi '20
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 5 6 DNS 3 6 42 Robert Chase '22 [1-2, 4-5]
Maggie Campbell '22 [3]
Jon Krueger '20 [1-2, 4-5]
Clare Harbin '19 [3]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 9 8 7 12 7 43 Maiya Foleck '19 [1-5]
Audrey Permenter '23 [1-2]
Paul Trudell '22 [3-5]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 10 17 11 6 8 52 Gavin Smith '21
Megan Geith '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 4 5 5 DSQ DSQ 58 Duke Cowart '19 [1-5]
Kennedy Jones '20 [1-3]
Benton Amthor '19 [4-5]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 8 15 8 7 RAF 60 Charlotte Patterson '20
Audrey Merritt '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 5 11 9 10 DNS 9 61 Jack Bickel '22
Wally Yu '21
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans 16 14 12 10 10 62 Katherine Anna Hamner '22
Joshua Morris '23
York High School York High School Varsity 12 DNF 13 11 11 69 Ethan White '21 [1-5]
Justin Kelly '25 [1-2]
Reilly Warren '21 [3-5]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 17 13 14 13 12 69 Jack Butler '23 [1-5]
Carter Lydon '21 [1-2]
Emily Argust '20 [3-5]
Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Knights 19 16 6 9 RAF 72 Will Robertson '21
Katie Fremaux '20
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1 14 11 15 14 RAF 76 Connor Duggan '19
Evan Liu-Phillips '17
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 6 15 10 17 DNS DNS 86 Jeronimo Guzman '21
Cindy Wang '21
Tabb High School Tabb High School Varsity 13 12 RAF DNS DNS 91 Elias Rooker '23 [1-2]
No Show [3-5]
Hunter Bryson '22 [1-2]
No Show [3-5]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 2 20 18 16 DNS DNS 98 Dax Dimuzio '21
Caden Sutton '21
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 18 19 19 DNS DNS 100 Morgan Handly '21 [1-2]
Tori Dixon '20 [3-5]
Ramazani Clement '23 [1-2]
Mallory Soter '20 [3-5]
Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers DNS RAF 18 DNS DNS 106 Charlotte Pirnik '20
Morgan Riggins '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 111111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 222222
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 333333
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 444444
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 555555
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 666666
Hampton High SchoolHampton High School Crabbers77777
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators 188888
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators 299999
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors1010101010
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints1111111111
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 11212121212
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 21313131313
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 11414141414
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 21515151515
Peninsula Catholic High SchoolPeninsula Catholic High School Knights1616161616
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms1717171717
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders1818181818
Tabb High SchoolTabb High School Varsity1919191919
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Trojans2020202020
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity2121212121

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 111111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 222222
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 333333
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 444444
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 555555
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 666666
Hampton High SchoolHampton High School Crabbers77777
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators 188888
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators 299999
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors1010101010
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints1111111111
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 11212121212
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 21313131313
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 11414141414
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 21515151515
Peninsula Catholic High SchoolPeninsula Catholic High School Knights1616161616
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms1717171717
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders1818181818
Tabb High SchoolTabb High School Varsity1919191919
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Trojans2020202020
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity2121212121
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School Boyd Bragg '19 Tristan Elden '20
Seahorses 1 John Vail '20 Anna Flynn '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Benton Amthor '19 Carson Rozell '19
Seahorses 2 Duke Cowart '19 [1-5] Kennedy Jones '20 [1-3]
Benton Amthor '19 [4-5]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Nathan Smith '20 Reese Bragg '21
Seahorses 3 Gannon Troutman '21 Clare Elden Gaule '21
Christchurch School Christchurch School Mariana Guzman Casas '19 Jeff Elkin '20
Seahorses 4 Lucas Masiello '19 Jordan Bayliss '21
Christchurch School Christchurch School Charlie Li '20 Weichen Zhao '20
Seahorses 5 Jack Bickel '22 Wally Yu '21
Christchurch School Christchurch School Egecan Tezcan '19 Peyton Smith '21
Seahorses 6 Jeronimo Guzman '21 Cindy Wang '21
Hampton High School Hampton High School Tori Dixon '20 Gavin Miller '23
Crabbers Charlotte Pirnik '20 Morgan Riggins '20
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Alex Kitay '19 Ethan Kutner '18
Navigators 1 Connor Duggan '19 Evan Liu-Phillips '17
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Scott Spencer '19 Nathan Hoege '19
Navigators 2 Dax Dimuzio '21 Caden Sutton '21
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Sam Brady '19 Laura Rhodes '20
Warriors Gavin Smith '21 Megan Geith '20
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Kyle Pfrang '22 [1-5] Hunter Sznoluch '19 [1-2]
Alex Wilkerson '19 [3-5]
Saints Jack Butler '23 [1-5] Carter Lydon '21 [1-2]
Emily Argust '20 [3-5]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Michael Hostutler '20 [1-2, 4-5]
Henry Allgeier '23 [3]		 Mihir Damle '19 [1-2, 4-5]
Michael Hostutler '20 [3]
Bulldogs 1 Charlie Britt '21 Ali Zaidi '20
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Jennifer Permenter '21 Cameron Lloyd '19
Bulldogs 2 Maiya Foleck '19 [1-5] Audrey Permenter '23 [1-2]
Paul Trudell '22 [3-5]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Chris Robertson '19 Matt Wright '19
Oaks 1 Parker Purrington '19 Ray Domena '19
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Harrison Thomson '22 [1-2, 5]
Alex Schuck '21 [3-4]		 Sam Beck '21 [1-2, 5]
Oaks 2 Robert Chase '22 [1-2, 4-5]
Maggie Campbell '22 [3]		 Jon Krueger '20 [1-2, 4-5]
Clare Harbin '19 [3]
Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Britt Cortina '20 Gracie Harris '20
Knights Will Robertson '21 Katie Fremaux '20
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Tyler Brown '23 Alexandra Smith '23
Phantoms Morgan Handly '21 [1-2]
Tori Dixon '20 [3-5]		 Ramazani Clement '23 [1-2]
Mallory Soter '20 [3-5]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Jack Mckenna '20 Emmaline Dicarlo '20
Islanders Charlotte Patterson '20 Audrey Merritt '20
Tabb High School Tabb High School David Hanna '21 [1-2]
Elias Rooker '23 [3-5]		 Jude Link '22 [1-2]
Zack George '19 [3-5]
Varsity Elias Rooker '23 [1-2]
No Show [3-5]		 Hunter Bryson '22 [1-2]
No Show [3-5]
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Ronan Donovan '19 Maddy O'Connell '20
Trojans Katherine Anna Hamner '22 Joshua Morris '23
York High School York High School Brian Fox '19 Charlie Gibson '20
Varsity Ethan White '21 [1-5] Justin Kelly '25 [1-2]
Reilly Warren '21 [3-5]

Conditions — 10/27/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 83%  ·  Pressure 1001.9 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.5 kn
avg  ·  max 10.4 kn
Gusts to 23.9 kn
From W (278°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine0.6 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1001.9 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Christchurch School: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.03 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christchurch School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (25 labelled days at Christchurch School).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →