Christchurch School '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.12 (fleet 3.43) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 58–9 (87%) as crew 7–1 (88%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 9–2 | 7–1 |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 13–0 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 21–6 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 15–1 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (73 matches) the record is 63–10 against 58.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-25 | ISSA Team Racing Championship (Baker Trophy) | crew | 3.07 | 4.91 | 7–1 | 5.4 | +1.84 | 1.5 | 17% |
| 2019-04-06 | VISA NCS Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.44 | 4.04 | 7–2 | 5.7 | +1.60 | 1.1 | 24% |
| 2018-10-13 | VISA NCS Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.36 | 5.36 | 13–0 | 12.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.8 | 53% |
| 2018-05-26 | High School Team Racing Nationals - Baker Trophy | skipper | 2.53 | 2.35 | 7–6 | 7.4 | −0.18 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 2018-04-28 | MASSA Team Championship Baker Qualifier | skipper | 2.50 | 5.50 | 14–0 | 13.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.8 | 55% |
| 2017-10-14 | VISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.13 | 3.14 | 15–1 | 14.1 | +1.02 | 0.5 | 40% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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