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VISA Kecoughtan Fleet Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 7 12 19
2 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 20 10 30
3 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 32 21 53
4 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 37 25 62
5 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1 30 38 68
6 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 49 23 72
7 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 29 46 75
8 York High School York High School Varsity 46 45 91
9 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 47 65 112
10 Mathews High School Mathews High School Blue Devils 1 43 74 117
11 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 75 66 141
12 Tabb High School Tabb High School Varsity 75 75 150
13 Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 70 96 166
14 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 86 88 174
15 Mathews High School Mathews High School Blue Devils 2 91 94 185
16 Granby High School Granby High School Comets 114 114 228
17 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 114 114 228
18 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 114 114 228
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 7 Boyd Bragg '19
Jeff Elkin '20
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 3 5 4 2 5 1 20 Parker Purrington '19
Ray Domena '19
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 4 3 8 3 9 29 Jack Mckenna '20
Emmaline Dicarlo '20
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1 6 2 7 7 4 4 30 Cole Handly '19
Megan Geith '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 4 7 10 3 2 6 32 John Vail '20
Anna Flynn '20
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 8 8 2 4 7 8 37 Alex Schuck '21
Adam Elci '22
Mathews High School Mathews High School Blue Devils 1 5 9 6 6 6 11 43 Andrew Ciszewski '21
David Mattox '21
York High School York High School Varsity 7 10 8 9 9 3 46 Brian Fox '19
Charlie Gibson '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 DNS 3 5 5 10 5 47 Gannon Troutman '21
Lucas Masiello '19
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 9 6 9 10 8 7 49 Harrison Thomson '22
Sam Beck '21
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 10 11 13 14 12 10 70 Madeline Amthor '22
Lenore Dougherty '20
Tabb High School Tabb High School Varsity 11 12 14 13 11 14 75 David Hanna '21 [1-6]
Elias Rooker '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Jude Link '22 [3-4]
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 12 13 12 11 14 13 75 Ricky Cordner '19
Ramazani Clement '23
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 DNF DNS 11 12 13 12 86 Morgan Handly '21
Maggie Leddy '20
Mathews High School Mathews High School Blue Devils 2 13 14 DNF 15 15 15 91 Dylan White '22
Quinton Dixon '20
Granby High School Granby High School Comets DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 114 No Show
No Show
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 114 Kyle Pfrang '22
Leila Pfrang '25
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 114
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 10 Chris Robertson '19
Matt Wright '19
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 1 5 1 2 2 12 Benton Amthor '19 [1-4]
Nathan Smith '20 [5-6]
Nathan Smith '20 [1-4]
Benton Amthor '19 [5-6]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 3 3 4 3 3 5 21 Mariana Guzman Casas '19
Carson Rozell '19
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 4 5 3 4 4 3 23 Henry Allgeier '23
Ali Zaidi '20
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 5 4 1 5 6 4 25 Robert Chase '22
Jon Krueger '20
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1 6 7 7 6 5 7 38 Tyler Brown '23 [1-6]
Mallory Soter '20 [1-4]
Charlotte Pirnik '20 [5-6]
York High School York High School Varsity 7 6 8 9 7 8 45 Justin Kelly '25
Ethan White '21
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 8 8 9 7 8 6 46 Charlotte Patterson '20
Sam Palmertree '21
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 9 11 6 DNS 10 10 65 Chase Brewer '22 [1-6]
Olivia Gilmore '23 [1-2, 5]
Claire Dicarlo '22 [3-4]
Emery Hill '23 [6]
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 10 9 DNF 8 11 9 66 David Michael Jennings '14 [1-6]
Alexandra Smith '23 [1-4]
Peyton Crum '23 [5-6]
Mathews High School Mathews High School Blue Devils 1 12 DNF 13 10 9 11 74 Alaya Mccurry '21
Quinton Dixon '20
Tabb High School Tabb High School Varsity 14 13 12 12 12 12 75 Hunter Bryson '22
Reilly Warren '21
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 11 10 10 DNS DNF DNS 88 Ryan Nguyen '20
Tori Dixon '20
Mathews High School Mathews High School Blue Devils 2 15 DNF 11 11 DSQ DNF 94 Henry Ciszewski '24 [1-6]
Cody Carnes '21 [1-4]
Dylan White '22 [5-6]
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 13 12 14 DNF DNS DNS 96 Christopher Raab '20
Luke Manternach '22
Granby High School Granby High School Comets DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 114 No Show
No Show
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 114
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 114
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.290+0.29
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1111111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2222222
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 3111111111111
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity333333
Granby High SchoolGranby High School Comets444444
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 1555555
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 2666666
Mathews High SchoolMathews High School Blue Devils 1777777
Mathews High SchoolMathews High School Blue Devils 2888888
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores999999
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints101010101010
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs121212121212
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1131313131313
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2141414141414
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms151515151515
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders161616161616
Tabb High SchoolTabb High School Varsity171717171717
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity181818181818

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1111111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2222222
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 3111111111111
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity333333
Granby High SchoolGranby High School Comets444444
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 1555555
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 2666666
Mathews High SchoolMathews High School Blue Devils 1777777
Mathews High SchoolMathews High School Blue Devils 2888888
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores999999
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints101010101010
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs121212121212
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1131313131313
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2141414141414
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms151515151515
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders161616161616
Tabb High SchoolTabb High School Varsity171717171717
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity181818181818
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School Boyd Bragg '19 Jeff Elkin '20
Seahorses 1 Benton Amthor '19 [1-4]
Nathan Smith '20 [5-6]		 Nathan Smith '20 [1-4]
Benton Amthor '19 [5-6]
Christchurch School Christchurch School John Vail '20 Anna Flynn '20
Seahorses 2 Mariana Guzman Casas '19 Carson Rozell '19
Christchurch School Christchurch School Gannon Troutman '21 Lucas Masiello '19
Seahorses 3 Chase Brewer '22 [1-6] Olivia Gilmore '23 [1-2, 5]
Claire Dicarlo '22 [3-4]
Emery Hill '23 [6]
Grafton High School Grafton High School Madeline Amthor '22 Lenore Dougherty '20
Varsity Christopher Raab '20 Luke Manternach '22
Granby High School Granby High School No Show No Show
Comets No Show No Show
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Cole Handly '19 Megan Geith '20
Warriors 1 Tyler Brown '23 [1-6] Mallory Soter '20 [1-4]
Charlotte Pirnik '20 [5-6]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Morgan Handly '21 Maggie Leddy '20
Warriors 2 Ryan Nguyen '20 Tori Dixon '20
Mathews High School Mathews High School Andrew Ciszewski '21 David Mattox '21
Blue Devils 1 Alaya Mccurry '21 Quinton Dixon '20
Mathews High School Mathews High School Dylan White '22 Quinton Dixon '20
Blue Devils 2 Henry Ciszewski '24 [1-6] Cody Carnes '21 [1-4]
Dylan White '22 [5-6]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Kyle Pfrang '22 Leila Pfrang '25
Saints
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Harrison Thomson '22 Sam Beck '21
Bulldogs Henry Allgeier '23 Ali Zaidi '20
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Parker Purrington '19 Ray Domena '19
Oaks 1 Chris Robertson '19 Matt Wright '19
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Alex Schuck '21 Adam Elci '22
Oaks 2 Robert Chase '22 Jon Krueger '20
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Ricky Cordner '19 Ramazani Clement '23
Phantoms David Michael Jennings '14 [1-6] Alexandra Smith '23 [1-4]
Peyton Crum '23 [5-6]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Jack Mckenna '20 Emmaline Dicarlo '20
Islanders Charlotte Patterson '20 Sam Palmertree '21
Tabb High School Tabb High School David Hanna '21 [1-6] Elias Rooker '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Jude Link '22 [3-4]
Varsity Hunter Bryson '22 Reilly Warren '21
York High School York High School Brian Fox '19 Charlie Gibson '20
Varsity Justin Kelly '25 Ethan White '21

Conditions — 03/23/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 42%  ·  Pressure 1020.1 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
13.0 kn
avg  ·  max 14.9 kn
Gusts to 26.4 kn
From WNW (293°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity42% Pressure1020.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 17 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Kecoughtan: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.25)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.25
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.28 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.25 means a rating gap counts about 22% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kecoughtan by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Kecoughtan, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →