VISA Women's Championship

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 11 11
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 17 17
3 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 33 33
4 Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 42 42
5 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 43 43
6 Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 45 45
7 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1 64 64
8 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 71 71
9 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 79 79
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 11 Ellie Maus '18
Sarah Smith '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 17 Mariana Guzman Casas '19
Clare Elden Gaule '21
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 4 5 3 4 3 3 3 6 2 33 Reese Bragg '21
Anna Flynn '20
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 3 4 5 6 4 5 6 4 5 42 Madeline Amthor '22
Lenore Daugherty '20
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 5 3 6 3 6 6 5 5 4 43 Olivia Basco '19
Charlotte Pirnik '20
Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 6 6 4 5 7 4 4 3 6 45 Avery Mcnight '20
Tori Dixon '20
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1 7 7 7 7 5 7 8 8 8 64 Morgan Handly '21
Mallory Soter '20
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 9 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 71 Emmaline Dicarlo '20
Ashlyn Wise '21
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 79 Megan Geith '20 [1-4]
Laura Rhodes '20 [5-9]
Laura Rhodes '20 [1-4]
Megan Geith '20 [5-9]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.290+0.29
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 111111111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 222222222
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity33333333
Hampton High SchoolHampton High School Crabbers44444444
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators55555555
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 166666666
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 299999999
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks77777777
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders88888888

Conditions — 04/22/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1029.4 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.0 kn
avg  ·  max 12.3 kn
Gusts to 22.0 kn
From SE (126°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover81% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1029.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Kecoughtan: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.46 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kecoughtan by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Kecoughtan, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →