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Christchurch School Invitational Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 21 19 40
2 Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Varsity 70 76 146
3 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 78 86 164
4 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 91 73 164
5 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 4 87 80 167
6 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 68 121 189
7 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 109 87 196
8 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 126 71 197
9 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 82 129 211
10 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 6 146 125 271
11 Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 106 169 275
12 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 5 148 148 296
13 Xavier High School Xavier High School Xavier High Falcons 159 155 314
14 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 7 205 167 372
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 1 21 Boyd Bragg '19 [1-14]
Sally Johnson '18 [1-10]
Reese Bragg '21 [11-14]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 2 1 3 2 3 8 9 7 2 7 6 5 5 8 68 Daniel Unangst '20
Steven Twemlow '20
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Varsity 10 6 6 4 2 2 5 5 5 2 3 11 3 6 70 Andre Evans '18
William Seigener '18
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 3 7 11 3 4 3 4 6 4 3 7 9 9 5 78 Austin Suvari '19
Lucy Mulvihill '18
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 5 3 8 6 6 7 8 2 9 8 8 2 6 4 82 Taylor Warwick '20
Nate Ciak '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 4 4 5 2 7 RDG 5 3 11 10 4 10 3 8 9 87 Duke Cowart '19
Carson Rozell '19
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 6 4 5 5 5 6 2 4 6 11 4 10 12 11 91 Tristan Elden '20
Anna Flynn '20
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 7 8 4 9 10 4 13 3 3 12 2 8 10 13 106 No Show
Adam Strobridge '22
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 9 9 9 10 8 10 7 12 8 5 12 7 1 2 109 Reese Bragg '21
Mary Esten Brown '21
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 8 10 7 8 7 9 10 8 12 10 11 12 4 10 126 Harrison Thomson '22 [1, 3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Maggie Campbell '22 [2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Maggie Campbell '22 [1]
Harrison Thomson '22 [2]
Jon Krueger '20 [3-14]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 6 12 12 12 DNS DNS DNS 12 13 13 13 5 4 2 3 146 Holden Howle '21
Reagan Stilwell '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 5 DNS DNS DNS 11 DNS DNS 6 10 7 6 9 6 11 7 148 Zoe Harding '18
Cindy Wang '21
Xavier High School Xavier High School Xavier High Falcons 11 11 10 DNF 9 11 11 9 11 9 14 13 13 12 159 William Stottlemeyer '20
Francis Brown '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 7 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 13 14 14 14 205 Larkin Rae '18 [1-10]
Mariana Guzman Casas '19 [11-14]
Faith Beasley '18 [1-10]
Clare Elden Gaule '21 [11-14]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 1 2 19 Nathan Smith '20
Galt Oliver '18
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 6 5 8 3 3 4 5 4 2 6 5 3 7 10 71 Alex Schuck '21
Chapman Holt '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 2 3 2 8 2 6 2 7 5 8 8 7 6 7 73 Louie Lafevre '17
Kennedy Jones '20
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Varsity 5 4 3 5 9 5 9 2 6 4 6 9 5 4 76 Sam Dobens '18 [1-6, 8-14]
James Cipolletti '18 [7]
Griffin Lorimer '18 [1-6, 10-14]
Andrew Russo '18 [7-9]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 4 7 8 4 6 8 8 4 5 10 10 1 4 2 3 80 Egecan Tezcan '19
Peyton Smith '21
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 8 2 9 7 7 7 6 6 3 3 4 8 8 8 86 Ulysses Hennelly '20 [1-14]
Lily Allen '19 [1-3, 9-13]
Elias Henke '19 [4-8, 14]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 4 7 6 2 4 10 7 9 7 7 9 6 3 6 87 Lucas Masiello '19
Beliz Yilmaz '17
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 10 12 11 10 10 12 10 10 4 5 7 5 10 5 121 Dale Vanmeter '19
Julia Marino '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 6 12 11 DNS DNS DNS DNS 8 8 9 9 2 1 4 1 125 Claude Owen '18
David Zhang '21
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 3 6 12 11 11 11 12 11 8 1 10 11 11 11 129 Joseph Paccione '21 [1-3, 7-14]
Gabriel Anama '21 [4-6]
Gabriel Anama '21 [1-3, 7-14]
Anthony Steed '20 [4-6]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 5 DNS DNS 13 13 DNS 2 3 3 DNS DNS 11 10 9 9 148 Erik Demario '18
Elia Fontecchio '20
Xavier High School Xavier High School Xavier High Falcons 11 9 7 12 12 9 11 12 11 11 12 12 13 13 155 Franscisco Quintana '20
Michael Dellaripa '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 7 DNS DNS 5 4 5 3 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 167 Timmy Donaldson '20 [1-10]
John Vail '20 [11-14]
Pete Coburn '19 [1-10]
Jeff Elkin '20 [11-14]
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 9 10 10 9 6 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 13 13 12 12 169 No Show
Alex O'Brien '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 111223344556677
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 222334455667788
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 333445566778899
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 44455667788991010
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 5556677889910101111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 666778899101011111212
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 7131314141122334455
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins7788991010111112121313
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Varsity889910101111121213131414
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits991010111112121313141411
Fairport High SchoolFairport High School Red Raiders101011111212131314141122
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders1111121213131414112233
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks12121313141411223344
Xavier High SchoolXavier High School Xavier High Falcons1414112233445566

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 111223344556677
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 222334455667788
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 333445566778899
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 44455667788991010
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 5556677889910101111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 666778899101011111212
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 7131314141122334455
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins7788991010111112121313
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Varsity889910101111121213131414
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits991010111112121313141411
Fairport High SchoolFairport High School Red Raiders101011111212131314141122
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders1111121213131414112233
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks12121313141411223344
Xavier High SchoolXavier High School Xavier High Falcons1414112233445566
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School Boyd Bragg '19 [1-14] Sally Johnson '18 [1-10]
Reese Bragg '21 [11-14]
Seahorses 1 Nathan Smith '20 Galt Oliver '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Tristan Elden '20 Anna Flynn '20
Seahorses 2 Louie Lafevre '17 Kennedy Jones '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Reese Bragg '21 Mary Esten Brown '21
Seahorses 3 Lucas Masiello '19 Beliz Yilmaz '17
Christchurch School Christchurch School Duke Cowart '19 Carson Rozell '19
Seahorses 4 Egecan Tezcan '19 Peyton Smith '21
Christchurch School Christchurch School Zoe Harding '18 Cindy Wang '21
Seahorses 5 Erik Demario '18 Elia Fontecchio '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Holden Howle '21 Reagan Stilwell '20
Seahorses 6 Claude Owen '18 David Zhang '21
Christchurch School Christchurch School Larkin Rae '18 [1-10]
Mariana Guzman Casas '19 [11-14]		 Faith Beasley '18 [1-10]
Clare Elden Gaule '21 [11-14]
Seahorses 7 Timmy Donaldson '20 [1-10]
John Vail '20 [11-14]		 Pete Coburn '19 [1-10]
Jeff Elkin '20 [11-14]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
Griffins Joseph Paccione '21 [1-3, 7-14]
Gabriel Anama '21 [4-6]		 Gabriel Anama '21 [1-3, 7-14]
Anthony Steed '20 [4-6]
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Andre Evans '18 William Seigener '18
Varsity Sam Dobens '18 [1-6, 8-14]
James Cipolletti '18 [7]		 Griffin Lorimer '18 [1-6, 10-14]
Andrew Russo '18 [7-9]
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Austin Suvari '19 Lucy Mulvihill '18
Wildkits Ulysses Hennelly '20 [1-14] Lily Allen '19 [1-3, 9-13]
Elias Henke '19 [4-8, 14]
Fairport High School Fairport High School No Show Adam Strobridge '22
Red Raiders No Show Alex O'Brien '18
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Daniel Unangst '20 Steven Twemlow '20
Raiders Dale Vanmeter '19 Julia Marino '20
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Harrison Thomson '22 [1, 3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Maggie Campbell '22 [2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]		 Maggie Campbell '22 [1]
Harrison Thomson '22 [2]
Jon Krueger '20 [3-14]
Oaks Alex Schuck '21 Chapman Holt '20
Xavier High School Xavier High School William Stottlemeyer '20 Francis Brown '20
Xavier High Falcons Franscisco Quintana '20 Michael Dellaripa '20

Conditions — 10/28/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1014.9 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.7 kn
avg  ·  max 9.4 kn
Gusts to 22.4 kn
From S (174°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover54% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1014.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 12 kn · S 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Christchurch School: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.03
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.39 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christchurch School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (25 labelled days at Christchurch School).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →