Leonardtown High School '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.26 (fleet 0.41) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–10 (41%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 | 3 | 7–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (17 matches) the record is 7–10 against 5.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-09-29 | Severn School Team Race | skipper | 0.47 | 1.22 | 2–4 | 1.4 | +0.75 | 0.2 | 45% |
| 2018-09-23 | SSA Team Race | skipper | 0.28 | 1.46 | 4–4 | 2.5 | +1.18 | 1.0 | 21% |
| 2018-09-22 | BCSC Fall 2018 JV Team Race | skipper | 0.26 | 0.27 | 1–2 | 1.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 88% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Christchurch Spring Intersectional Kick Off | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.9 | -0.03 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Christchurch School Invitational Regatta | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.6 | 0.12 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Dale Vanmeter |  Great Mills High School |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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