| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 6–0 |
| 2 |  |
Towson High School | Generals | 5–1 |
| 3 |  |
Gilman School | Greyhounds | 4–2 |
| 4 |  |
St. Mary's High School (MD) | Saints | 3–3 |
| 5 |  |
Chopticon High School | Braves | 2–4 |
| 6 |  |
Severna Park | Falcons | 1–5 |
| 7 |  |
Georgetown Day School | Georgetown Day | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 5,440 team race matches sailed before 2018-09-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 6 of 6 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.076 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School Admirals | 1 | 6.09 school +0.27 | Teddy Cromwell / Rees Tindall Zander King / Raam Fox Patrick Dolan / Jack O'Donnell | 95% | 3–0 (100%) | +0.1 |
| 4 | St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints | 2 | 3.73 school −0.06 | Chase Conway / Molly Jones- Lantzy Andrew Tollefson / Stella Reshetiloff Cole Wiegand / Lucy Duckett | 66% | 2–1 (67%) | +0.0 |
| 5 | Chopticon High School Braves | 3 | 1.15 | Dale Vanmeter / Shaun Ransford Will Miller / Joseph Mcgraw Audrey Commerford / Steven Twemlow | 33% | 1–2 (33%) | +0.0 |
| 6 | Severna Park Falcons | 4 | -1.21 school −0.53 | Douglas Patrick / Sophie Eitel Zach Hammel / Jack Alpert 0–2 Pierre Auchincloss / Janie Powell 0–2 Zach Hammel / Ethan Lane 0–1 Pierre Auchincloss / Piper Shrout 0–1 | 6% | 0–3 (0%) | −0.2 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School | 6.09 | 9.09 | 3–0 | 2.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.2 | 85% |
| 4 | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 3.73 | 3.81 | 2–1 | 2.0 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 88% |
| 5 | Chopticon High School | 1.15 | 1.17 | 1–2 | 1.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 88% |
| 6 | Severna Park | -1.21 | -4.21 | 0–3 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Cromwell | Severn School | 2.08 | 5.08 | 3–0 | 2.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.2 | 85% |
| Chase Conway | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 1.56 | 1.63 | 2–1 | 2.0 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 88% |
| Andrew Tollefson | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 1.17 | 1.25 | 2–1 | 2.0 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 88% |
| Cole Wiegand | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 0.94 | 1.02 | 2–1 | 2.0 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 88% |
| Audrey Commerford | Chopticon High School | 0.56 | 0.58 | 1–2 | 1.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 88% |
| Douglas Patrick | Severna Park | 0.06 | -2.94 | 0–3 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| Zach Hammel | Severna Park | 0.07 | -2.93 | 0–3 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| Pierre Auchincloss | Severna Park | -0.89 | -3.89 | 0–3 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | Chopticon High School | Severna Park | 86% | |
| 1 | 7 | Severn School | Severna Park | 100% | |
| 1 | 10 | Severn School | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 87% | |
| 1 | 14 | St. Mary's High School (MD) | Severna Park | 98% | |
| 1 | 16 | Severn School | Chopticon High School | 98% | |
| 1 | 20 | St. Mary's High School (MD) | Chopticon High School | 88% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Braves | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Georgetown Day | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Greyhounds | 1-3-6 DNF | def. | |
Saints | 2-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Admirals | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Generals | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Braves | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Greyhounds | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Georgetown Day | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Generals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Saints | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Greyhounds | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Braves | 1-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Generals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Georgetown Day | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Saints | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Greyhounds | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Generals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Braves | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Georgetown Day | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Generals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Greyhounds | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Braves | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Georgetown Day | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Generals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Greyhounds | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Braves | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Georgetown Day | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Severn School | Admirals | Patrick Dolan '21 Teddy Cromwell '20 Zander King '21 |
Jack O'Donnell '21 Rees Tindall '21 Raam Fox '22 |
|
St. Mary's High School (MD) | Saints | Andrew Tollefson '22 Chase Conway '22 Cole Wiegand '21 |
Stella Reshetiloff '21 Molly Jones- Lantzy '21 Lucy Duckett '22 |
|
Chopticon High School | Braves | Audrey Commerford '21 Dale Vanmeter '19 Will Miller '20 |
Steven Twemlow '20 Shaun Ransford '19 Joseph Mcgraw '19 |
|
Severna Park | Falcons | Douglas Patrick '20 Pierre Auchincloss '21 Zach Hammel '21 |
Sophie Eitel '21 Janie Powell '21 Piper Shrout '22 Jack Alpert '21 Ethan Lane '21 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
