| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | 7–2 |
| 2 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | 8–1 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 1 | 6–3 |
| 4 | |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 2 | 3–6 |
| 5 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders | 4–5 |
| 6 |  |
York High School | Varsity | 3–6 |
| 7 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 3 | 7–2 |
| 8 |  |
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | 1–8 |
| 9 |  |
Hampton High School | Crabbers | 4–5 |
| 10 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 2–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 5,898 team race matches sailed before 2019-04-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 25 of 30 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.367 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.07 ± 0.41: a typical event, more orderly than 36% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 6.24 | 7.84 | 7–2 | 5.7 | +1.60 | 1.1 | 24% |
| 3 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | 5.64 | 6.81 | 6–3 | 4.9 | +1.17 | 0.7 | 29% |
| 6 | York High School Varsity | 2.19 | 2.83 | 2–6 | 1.5 | +0.64 | 0.2 | 45% |
| 4 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 | 4.50 | 4.29 | 3–6 | 3.2 | −0.21 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 8 | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | 2.47 | 1.42 | 1–7 | 1.7 | −1.05 | 0.4 | 90% |
| 2 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | 9.10 | 7.82 | 8–1 | 8.6 | −1.29 | 0.5 | 94% |
| 5 | Poquoson High School Islanders | 4.54 | 3.08 | 3–5 | 4.5 | −1.47 | 1.2 | 96% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariana Guzman Casas | Christchurch School | 2.44 | 4.04 | 7–2 | 5.7 | +1.60 | 1.1 | 24% |
| Justin Kelly | York High School | 0.48 | 1.13 | 2–6 | 1.5 | +0.64 | 0.2 | 45% |
| Alex Schuck | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.56 | 1.35 | 3–6 | 3.2 | −0.21 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Cole Handly | Kecoughtan High School | 1.22 | 0.17 | 1–7 | 1.7 | −1.05 | 0.4 | 90% |
| Jack Mckenna | Poquoson High School | 2.19 | 0.73 | 3–5 | 4.5 | −1.47 | 1.2 | 96% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | |
Crabbers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-5 |
| 38 | |
Crabbers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 2-3-6 |
| 45 | |
Commodores | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Crabbers | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Crabbers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Crabbers | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Crabbers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Crabbers | 2-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Commodores | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Crabbers | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Crabbers | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Oaks 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Seahorses 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 1-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Islanders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 2-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-5 |
| 42 | |
Islanders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Islanders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-4-5 |
| 44 | |
Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 1-5-6 |
| 1 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Warriors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 2-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Oaks 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-3-6 |
| 19 | |
Islanders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Seahorses 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Seahorses 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 1-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
