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VISA CCS Fleet Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 6 22 28
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 18 13 31
3 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 15 20 35
4 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 22 15 37
5 York High School York High School Varsity 1 42 43 85
6 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 58 27 85
7 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 49 40 89
8 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 40 50 90
9 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 55 69 124
10 York High School York High School Varsity 2 61 66 127
11 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 69 72 141
12 Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 81 67 148
13 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 52 101 153
14 Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 80 82 162
15 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 89 83 172
16 Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Knights 93 90 183
17 Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons 102 97 199
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 1 1 1 1 BKD 6 Boyd Bragg '19
Sally Johnson '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 15 Nathan Smith '20
Reese Bragg '21
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 2 2 5 2 4 3 18 Benton Amthor '19 [1-5]
Duke Cowart '19 [6]
Galt Oliver '18 [1-5]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 5 4 2 6 3 2 22 Ellie Maus '18
Matt Wright '19
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 7 9 6 9 5 4 40 Parker Purrington '19 [1-6]
Jon Krueger '20 [1-4, 6]
Harrison Thomson '22 [5]
York High School York High School Varsity 1 6 7 7 8 8 6 42 Zane Morris '18
Ethan White '21
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 10 14 8 5 7 5 49 Cole Handly '19
Megan Geith '20
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 4 11 9 11 10 7 52 Jack Mckenna '20
Ashlyn Wise '21
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 9 8 13 7 9 9 55 Paul Trudell '22
Emily Palmer '18
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 8 6 4 4 DNS DNS 58 Harrison Parker '18
Jack Butler '23
York High School York High School Varsity 2 14 13 10 10 6 8 61 Brian Fox '19
Hunter Bryson '22
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 11 5 11 12 12 DNS 69 Blake Harrington '18
Alexandra Smith '23
Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 13 12 16 16 13 10 80 Avery Mcnight '20
Mallory Soter '20
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 17 16 12 14 11 11 81 Haydon Gould '19
Jacqueline Lankford '18
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 16 10 14 13 DNS DNS 89 Tyler Cason '18
Will Moore '20
Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Knights 12 15 15 15 DNS DNS 93 Britt Cortina '20
Chase Brewer '22
Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons 15 17 17 17 DNS DNS 102 Ryan Allman '21 [1-6]
Erin Allman '21 [1-2]
Leland Cobb '18 [3-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 3 4 3 1 1 1 13 Mariana Guzman Casas '19
Jeff Elkin '20
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 5 1 1 2 3 3 15 Chris Robertson '19
Sam Beck '21
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 2 2 5 4 5 2 20 John Vail '20
Lucas Masiello '19
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 8 2 3 4 4 22 Brendan Little '18
Anna Flynn '20
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 6 3 4 5 2 7 27 Kyle Pfrang '22
Hunter Sznoluch '19
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 8 5 6 7 9 5 40 Sam Brady '19
Laura Rhodes '20
York High School York High School Varsity 1 7 6 8 8 6 8 43 Daniel Hodges '18
Charlie Gibson '20
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 4 10 7 9 10 10 50 Sarah Smith '18 [1-5]
Harrison Thomson '22 [6]
Jenks Britt '20 [1-5]
York High School York High School Varsity 2 12 9 15 6 DNS 6 66 Kai Vylet '19
Elias Rooker '23
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 11 13 11 12 8 12 67 David Hanna '21
Lenore Dougherty '20
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 10 16 9 14 11 9 69 Jalen Rogers '19
Sophia Bibbo '20
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 15 12 14 13 7 11 72 Bryce Hoen '18
Ryan Nguyen '20
Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 13 11 12 10 DNS DNS 82 Tyler Brown '22
Morgan Handly '21
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 9 7 13 DNS DNS DNS 83 Paul Trudell '22
Connor Mccarty '21
Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Knights 14 15 10 15 DNS DNS 90 Dan Whelan '20
Gabby Cloe '24
Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Falcons 16 17 17 11 DNS DNS 97 Logan Deaver '18 [1-6]
Ian Lichacz '18 [1-2]
Warren Smith '18 [3-6]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 17 14 16 DNS DNS DNS 101 Emmaline Dicarlo '20
Kalia Haupt '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1112233
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2223344
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 3334455
Frank W. Cox High SchoolFrank W. Cox High School Falcons445566
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity556677
Hampton High SchoolHampton High School Crabbers667788
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors778899
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 188991010
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 29910101111
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints101011111212
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1111112121313
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2121213131414
Peninsula Catholic High SchoolPeninsula Catholic High School Knights131314141515
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms141415151616
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders151516161717
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity 11616171711
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity 217171122

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1112233
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2223344
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 3334455
Frank W. Cox High SchoolFrank W. Cox High School Falcons445566
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity556677
Hampton High SchoolHampton High School Crabbers667788
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors778899
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 188991010
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 29910101111
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints101011111212
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1111112121313
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2121213131414
Peninsula Catholic High SchoolPeninsula Catholic High School Knights131314141515
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms141415151616
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders151516161717
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity 11616171711
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity 217171122
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School Boyd Bragg '19 Sally Johnson '18
Seahorses 1 Brendan Little '18 Anna Flynn '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Benton Amthor '19 [1-5]
Duke Cowart '19 [6]		 Galt Oliver '18 [1-5]
Seahorses 2 Mariana Guzman Casas '19 Jeff Elkin '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Nathan Smith '20 Reese Bragg '21
Seahorses 3 John Vail '20 Lucas Masiello '19
Frank W. Cox High School Frank W. Cox High School Ryan Allman '21 [1-6] Erin Allman '21 [1-2]
Leland Cobb '18 [3-6]
Falcons Logan Deaver '18 [1-6] Ian Lichacz '18 [1-2]
Warren Smith '18 [3-6]
Grafton High School Grafton High School Haydon Gould '19 Jacqueline Lankford '18
Varsity David Hanna '21 Lenore Dougherty '20
Hampton High School Hampton High School Avery Mcnight '20 Mallory Soter '20
Crabbers Tyler Brown '22 Morgan Handly '21
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Cole Handly '19 Megan Geith '20
Warriors Sam Brady '19 Laura Rhodes '20
Maury High School Maury High School Paul Trudell '22 Emily Palmer '18
Commodores 1 Jalen Rogers '19 Sophia Bibbo '20
Maury High School Maury High School Tyler Cason '18 Will Moore '20
Commodores 2 Paul Trudell '22 Connor Mccarty '21
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Harrison Parker '18 Jack Butler '23
Saints Kyle Pfrang '22 Hunter Sznoluch '19
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Ellie Maus '18 Matt Wright '19
Oaks 1 Chris Robertson '19 Sam Beck '21
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Parker Purrington '19 [1-6] Jon Krueger '20 [1-4, 6]
Harrison Thomson '22 [5]
Oaks 2 Sarah Smith '18 [1-5]
Harrison Thomson '22 [6]		 Jenks Britt '20 [1-5]
Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Britt Cortina '20 Chase Brewer '22
Knights Dan Whelan '20 Gabby Cloe '24
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Blake Harrington '18 Alexandra Smith '23
Phantoms Bryce Hoen '18 Ryan Nguyen '20
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Jack Mckenna '20 Ashlyn Wise '21
Islanders Emmaline Dicarlo '20 Kalia Haupt '19
York High School York High School Zane Morris '18 Ethan White '21
Varsity 1 Daniel Hodges '18 Charlie Gibson '20
York High School York High School Brian Fox '19 Hunter Bryson '22
Varsity 2 Kai Vylet '19 Elias Rooker '23

Conditions — 03/17/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 49%  ·  Pressure 1013.6 hPa

Temperature

45°F
↑ 51°F   ↓ 31°F
Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.2 kn
avg  ·  max 4.5 kn
Gusts to 14.2 kn
From SSE (151°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover71% Sunshine8.4 hrs Humidity49% Pressure1013.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Christchurch School: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.03
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.31 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christchurch School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (25 labelled days at Christchurch School).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →