Chase Brewer

Rating History

Team Race Rating

Rating	Rank	vs fleet rating	Record
0.66 (fleet 1.12)	unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active)	−0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts	as skipper 30–93 (24%)

Season	Regattas	Skipper W–L	Crew W–L
Spring 2022	2	1–6	—
Fall 2021	4	7–35	—
Spring 2021	1	0–4	—
Fall 2019	4	7–14	—
Spring 2019	3	8–27	—
Spring 2018	1	7–7	—

Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.

Team race surprisal: regatta by regatta

Over 14 graded regattas (121 matches) the record is 30–91 against 36.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−6.6). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 11 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 14 bits of surprise in all.

Date	Regatta	Role	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2022-04-23	VISA Team Championship	skipper	0.96	0.02	1–4	1.4	−0.94	0.2	89%
2021-11-06	MASSA Silver Team Race Championship	skipper	0.92	-0.58	4–11	6.7	−1.50	2.2	98%
2021-10-23	VISA Team Race Championship and Qualifier	skipper	0.90	0.09	1–5	1.5	−0.81	0.2	86%
2021-10-09	VISA NA Team Race Regatta 2	skipper	0.94	-0.05	2–9	3.1	−0.99	0.6	91%
2021-09-25	VISA Norfolk Academy Team Race Regatta	skipper	0.92	-2.08	0–10	0.4	≤−3.00	0.5	>99%
2021-04-17	VISA Team Race Championship and Qualifier	skipper	0.73	-2.27	0–4	0.5	≤−3.00	0.7	>99%
2019-11-02	MASSA Team Race Championship	skipper	0.68	-0.10	1–6	1.5	−0.78	0.2	85%
2019-10-12	VISA NCS Team Race Championship	skipper	0.53	-1.38	1–5	2.4	−1.91	1.4	97%
2019-10-10	VISA Peninsula Team Race Series Three	skipper	0.47	0.33	3–1	3.1	−0.13	0.0	77%
2019-09-18	VISA Peninsula Team Race Series 1	skipper	0.69	-1.66	2–2	3.3	−2.34	1.8	99%
2019-04-27	MASSA Team Race Championship (Baker Qualifier)	skipper	0.46	-0.15	2–19	2.8	−0.60	0.3	83%
2019-04-06	VISA NCS Team Race Championship	skipper	0.45	-1.02	3–5	4.5	−1.47	1.2	96%
2019-03-28	VISA Peninsula Team Race Series 1	skipper	0.30	2.21	3–3	1.1	+1.91	2.1	9%
2018-05-12	VISA 2v2 Team Race Regatta	skipper	-0.17	1.20	7–7	4.2	+1.37	2.3	7%

Regatta results

Regatta	Role	Div	Races	Avg	Rating
Spring 2018 Season
VISA CCS Fleet Race Regatta	Crew	A	4	14.2	—

Linked Profiles

League	Name	School	Year
ISSA	Chase Brewer	Christchurch School	'22
ISSA	Chase Brewer	walsingham-academy	'22

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How do skipper ratings work?A log-strength fitted to every race at once, smoothed week to week.
What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
How does a crew rating work?A crew rating is small and uncertain; a worked example on one roster.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.

All notes →