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VISA Norfolk Academy Team Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 9–1
2 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 8–2
3 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 7–3
4 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 2–8
5 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 4–6
6 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 0–10
7 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 6–2
8 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 6–2
9 Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 5–3
10 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 2–6
11 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans 1–7

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 7,729 team race matches sailed before 2021-09-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 28 of 30 matches (93%) with a log-loss of 0.296 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.81 ± 0.46: an orderly event, more orderly than 96% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Christchurch School
Seahorses 1		17.12
school +0.14		Carlos Bermudez De Castro Castro / Emilie Janzen 2.91
Jj Klempen / Pj Rodrigues Jr
Maison Koepke / Marina Dryer 2.06		77%9–1 (90%)+1.3
2Norfolk Collegiate School
Oaks 1		26.52
school −0.16		Harrison Thomson / Kiana Beachy 2.26
Maggie Campbell / Clara Murphy 2.33
Robert Chase / Brylie Schaubach 2.06		66%8–2 (80%)+1.3
3Norfolk Academy
Bulldogs 1		36.14
school +0.13, home +0.05		Rebecca Schill / Marin Soderberg 1.57
Henry Allgeier / Rachael Buchanan 2.47 5–3
Audrey Permenter / Emily Britt 1.72 5–3
Henry Allgeier / Audrey Permenter 2.63 2–0
Sean Trudell / Emily Britt 2.00 2–0		60%7–3 (70%)+1.0
4Hampton Roads Academy
Navigators		54.88Parker Moore / Alec Reed 2.03
Pierce Brindley / Rocson Larocco 1.16
Madeline Amthore / Olivia Slider		37%2–8 (20%)−1.7
5Nansemond-Suffolk Academy
Saints		45.97
school +0.14		Kyle Pfrang / Charlie Joseph 2.29
Leila Pfrang / Bennett Parker
Tyler Brown / Jack Herritage 1.96		55%4–6 (40%)−1.5
6Poquoson High School
Islanders		61.82
school +0.07		Chase Brewer / Eleanor Patterson 0.92
Grace Waltington / Ava Michel
Cam Brewer / Emery Hill 0.94		4%0–10 (0%)−0.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Christchurch School Seahorses 17.128.469–17.7+1.340.928%
2Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 16.527.578–26.6+1.050.827%
3Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 16.146.877–36.0+0.730.435%
5Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints5.974.844–65.5−1.131.094%
4Hampton Roads Academy Navigators4.883.032–83.7−1.851.698%
6Poquoson High School Islanders1.82-1.180–100.4≤−3.000.5>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Carlos Bermudez De Castro CastroChristchurch School2.914.259–17.7+1.340.928%
Maggie CampbellNorfolk Collegiate School2.333.398–26.6+1.050.827%
Audrey PermenterNorfolk Academy1.721.915–34.8+0.200.060%
Madeline AmthoreHampton Roads Academy1.46-0.392–83.7−1.851.698%
Grace WaltingtonPoquoson High School-0.21-3.210–100.4≤−3.000.5>99%
Cam BrewerPoquoson High School0.94-2.060–100.4≤−3.000.5>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1Poquoson High School Islanders98%
12Christchurch School Seahorses 1Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints71%
15Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1Poquoson High School Islanders96%
16Nansemond-Suffolk Academy SaintsHampton Roads Academy Navigators72%
19Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 160%
110Christchurch School Seahorses 1Hampton Roads Academy Navigators86%
113Nansemond-Suffolk Academy SaintsPoquoson High School Islanders96%
114Christchurch School Seahorses 1Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 169%
117Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1Hampton Roads Academy Navigators79%
118Christchurch School Seahorses 1Poquoson High School Islanders98%
121Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1Hampton Roads Academy Navigators72%
122Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints61%
123Hampton Roads Academy NavigatorsPoquoson High School Islanders92%
124Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints59%
125Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1Christchurch School Seahorses 138%upset
226Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1Poquoson High School Islanders97%
227Christchurch School Seahorses 1Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints71%
228Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1Poquoson High School Islanders96%
229Nansemond-Suffolk Academy SaintsHampton Roads Academy Navigators70%
230Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 142%upset
231Christchurch School Seahorses 1Hampton Roads Academy Navigators85%
232Nansemond-Suffolk Academy SaintsPoquoson High School Islanders96%
233Christchurch School Seahorses 1Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 169%
234Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1Hampton Roads Academy Navigators71%
235Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints60%
236Christchurch School Seahorses 1Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 162%
237Christchurch School Seahorses 1Poquoson High School Islanders98%
238Hampton Roads Academy NavigatorsPoquoson High School Islanders92%
239Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1Hampton Roads Academy Navigators77%
240Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints59%
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 1-2-6 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 3-4-5
2 Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1-2-3 def. Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 4-5-6
3 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 1-2-3 def. Grafton High School Varsity 4-5-6
4 Christchurch School Seahorses 2 1-2-3 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 4-5-6
5 Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 1-2-3 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 4-5-6
6 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1-2-3 def. Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 4-5-6
7 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 1-2-3 def. Walsingham Academy Trojans 4-5-6
8 Grafton High School Varsity 1-2-5 def. Christchurch School Seahorses 2 3-4-6
9 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 2-3-4 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 1-5-6
10 Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1-4-5 def. Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 2-3-6
11 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 1-2-4 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 3-5-6
12 Grafton High School Varsity 1-2-3 def. Walsingham Academy Trojans 4-5-6
13 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1-2-4 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 3-5-6
14 Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1-2-6 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 3-4-5
15 Christchurch School Seahorses 2 1-2-5 def. Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 3-4-6
16 Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 1-2-5 def. Walsingham Academy Trojans 3-4-6
17 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 1-2-3 def. Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 4-5-6
18 Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1-2-3 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 4-5-6
19 Grafton High School Varsity 1-2-5 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 3-4-6
20 Christchurch School Seahorses 2 1-2-3 def. Walsingham Academy Trojans 4-5-6
21 Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 1-2-3 def. Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 4-5-6
22 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 1-2-3 def. Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 4-5-6
23 Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1-2-3 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 4-5-6
24 Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 1-2-3 def. Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 4-5-6
25 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 1-4-6 def. Christchurch School Seahorses 1 2-3-5 RAF
26 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 1-2-5 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 3-4-6
27 Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1-2-6 def. Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 3-4-5
28 Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 1-2-5 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 3-4-6
29 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1-3-5 def. Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 2-4-6
30 Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 1-2-4 def. Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 3-5-6
31 Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1-2-3 def. Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 4-5-6
32 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1-2-3 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 4-5-6
33 Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1-3-4 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 2-5-6
34 Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 1-2-3 def. Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 4-5-6
35 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 1-3-6 def. Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 2-4-5
36 Christchurch School Seahorses 1 2-3-4 def. Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 1-5-6
37 Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1-2-4 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 3-5-6
38 Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1-2-6 def. Poquoson High School Islanders 3-4-5
39 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 1-2-3 def. Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 4-5-6
40 Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 2-3-4 def. Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1-5-6
41 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 1-2-6 def. Grafton High School Varsity 3-4-5
42 Christchurch School Seahorses 2 1-2-4 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 3-5-6
43 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 2-3-4 def. Walsingham Academy Trojans 1-5-6
44 Christchurch School Seahorses 2 1-2-4 def. Grafton High School Varsity 3-5-6
45 Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 1-3-6 def. Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 2-4-5
46 Grafton High School Varsity 1-2-5 def. Walsingham Academy Trojans 3-4-6
47 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 1-2-6 def. Christchurch School Seahorses 2 3-4-5
48 Walsingham Academy Trojans 1-3-6 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 2-4-5
49 Grafton High School Varsity 1-2-3 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 4-5-6
50 Christchurch School Seahorses 2 1-2-3 def. Walsingham Academy Trojans 4-5-6

Conditions — 09/25/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1016.2 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 73°F   ↓ 69°F
Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 7.6 kn
Gusts to 15.2 kn
From N (357°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover15% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1016.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Norfolk Academy — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Norfolk Academy in this breeze: a typical day (−0.00)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Norfolk Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Norfolk Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →