Christchurch School '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 69–26 (73%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 3 | — | 25–9 |
| Fall 2021 | 3 | — | 27–6 |
| Spring 2021 | 2 | — | 17–11 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (95 matches) the record is 69–26 against 62.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+6.1). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-21 | Baker Trophy 2022 | crew | 3.38 | 4.27 | 7–4 | 5.5 | +0.89 | 0.8 | 24% |
| 2022-04-30 | MASSA 2022 Team Race Championship | crew | 3.23 | 5.02 | 11–2 | 8.5 | +1.78 | 2.3 | 8% |
| 2022-04-23 | VISA Team Championship | crew | 3.28 | 2.41 | 7–3 | 8.0 | −0.87 | 0.5 | 90% |
| 2021-10-23 | VISA Team Race Championship and Qualifier | crew | 2.97 | 2.27 | 9–3 | 9.9 | −0.69 | 0.4 | 87% |
| 2021-10-09 | VISA NA Team Race Regatta 2 | crew | 3.01 | 2.35 | 9–2 | 9.6 | −0.65 | 0.2 | 86% |
| 2021-09-25 | VISA Norfolk Academy Team Race Regatta | crew | 2.91 | 4.25 | 9–1 | 7.7 | +1.34 | 0.9 | 28% |
| 2021-05-22 | 2021 ISSA Baker Team Race National Championship | crew | 2.77 | 4.01 | 2–2 | 1.3 | +1.25 | 0.5 | 36% |
| 2021-04-24 | MASSA Baker Team Race Qualifiers | crew | 1.13 | 1.89 | 15–9 | 12.5 | +0.75 | 1.0 | 17% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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