MASSA 2021 Mallory Fleet Qualifier Championship

HostTRYC & BBYRA
Date05/15/2021
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Severn School	Admirals	22	44	66
2	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Battlin' Baron	67	69	136
3	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	74	64	138
4	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	75	90	165
5	The Stony Brook School	Bears	66	102	168
6	Ranney School	Panthers	62	115	177
7	Toms River North	Mariners	120	60	180
8	Christchurch School	Seahorses	82	98	180
9	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	91	97	188
10	Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	96	113	209
11	Broadneck High School	Bruins	102	113	215
12	St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	118	120	238
13	Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	168	91	259
14	Biotechnology High School	Nerds	145	142	287
15	Fairport High School	Red Raiders	165	146	311
16	Pittsford High School	Knights	177	168	345

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
Severn School	Admirals	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	6	3	1	2	22	Thomas Sitzmann '23 [1-10] Owen Hennessey '21 [11-12] Scarlett Harris '24 [1-2, 11-12] Raam Fox '22 [3-10]
Ranney School	Panthers	5	2	5	3	3	2	7	4	7	12	6	6	62	Brooke Schmelz '21 Ashley Abboud '22
The Stony Brook School	Bears	8	3	11	13	5	4	2	2	3	2	2	11	66	Steven Hardee '22 Mairead Reitzel '24
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Battlin' Baron	6	6	7	2	2	8	5	11	1	7	7	5	67	Nick Budington '21 Liam Gronda '21
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	4	4	9	4	DSQ	5	8	9	4	6	3	1	74	Javier Ojeda '23 Kevin Brooksbank '23
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	1	7	8	5	4	6	11	5	10	1	10	7	75	Maggie Campbell '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-12] Alex Schuck '21 [3-4, 7-8] Clara Murphy '23 [1-2, 5-12] Brylie Schaubach '22 [3-4]
Christchurch School	Seahorses	9	5	4	6	6	7	RDG	3	5	5	13	12	82	Carlos Bermudez De Castro Castro '22 Emilie Janzen '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	2	9	2	9	8	3	13	7	13	9	8	8	91	Ryan Ehnot '22 Nicholas Cunha '23
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	10	8	3	15	9	10	4	6	8	11	9	3	96	Hugh Carty '23 Ty Ryan '22
Broadneck High School	Bruins	13	11	10	8	7	14	10	8	2	10	5	4	102	Jonjon Weed '22 Will Harding '22
St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	11	10	13	7	11	11	3	13	12	4	14	9	118	William Cornell '21 Amelia Johnson '21
Toms River North	Mariners	7	15	6	11	10	13	14	10	9	8	4	13	120	Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
Biotechnology High School	Nerds	12	14	12	10	12	9	6	16	14	14	12	14	145	Benson Chiles '22 Ronan Downie '22
Fairport High School	Red Raiders	14	DSQ	14	14	14	12	15	12	15	DSQ	11	10	165	Adam Strobridge '22 [1-12] Matt Lago '23 [1-4, 7-12] Cameron Bernabei '21 [5-6]
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	16	12	16	16	15	16	9	14	11	13	15	15	168	Pierce Brindley '24 Liam Ambrosino '23
Pittsford High School	Knights	15	13	15	12	13	15	16	15	16	15	16	16	177	Lena Fine '21 Peter Higgins '22

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
Severn School	Admirals	2	3	1	1	16	7	1	3	2	1	4	3	44	Robby Meek '23 [1-10] Zander King '21 [11-12] Lilly Baker '23 [1-10]
Toms River North	Mariners	1	1	5	2	6	4	2	15	3	8	11	2	60	Everett Botwinick '22 [1-12] Iliana Vasslides '23 [1-6] Lindsay Walsh '23 [7-12]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	5	2	8	9	3	1	6	8	8	6	7	1	64	James Kopack '24 Caroline Felser '24
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Battlin' Baron	7	4	4	3	2	13	13	1	1	14	2	5	69	Matt Budington '21 Anna Grolleman '22
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	8	9	3	6	5	14	5	9	10	12	1	8	90	Robert Chase '22 [1-2] Harrison Thomson '22 [3-12] Kiana Beachy '24 [1-8, 11-12] Robert Chase '22 [9-10]
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	12	10	6	7	7	12	10	7	6	5	5	4	91	Madeline Amthore '22 Ellie Hasbrouck '24
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	10	5	13	8	1	15	9	14	4	4	8	6	97	Colin Guerrera '22 Mitchell Hnatt '24
Christchurch School	Seahorses	4	7	11	11	8	6	8	6	9	7	6	15	98	Gannon Troutman '21 Reese Bragg '21
The Stony Brook School	Bears	9	12	7	4	4	10	14	12	5	9	9	7	102	Gavin Hudson '24 Lilly Jette '21
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	6	15	9	13	12	9	3	5	15	3	13	10	113	Griffin Richardson '21 [1-4, 9-12] Ava Farley '22 [5-8] Joaquin Marquez '21 [1-4, 9-12]
Broadneck High School	Bruins	15	11	10	10	10	3	12	10	7	2	10	13	113	Morgan Carew '21 Emilie Orendorff '22
Ranney School	Panthers	3	6	2	5	13	8	16	2	16	16	16	12	115	Alexa Whitman '22 [1-12] Grace Bray '23 [1-4, 7-10] Jack Whitman '23 [5-6, 11-12]
St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	14	8	12	16	14	2	7	11	12	10	3	11	120	Cole Wiegand '21 Emma Kissell '21
Biotechnology High School	Nerds	11	13	15	14	9	16	11	4	13	13	14	9	142	Gabby Fontana '23 [1-12] Aiden Welch '24 [1-2, 5-6, 9-12] Andrew Pepe '23 [3-4, 7-8]
Fairport High School	Red Raiders	13	14	14	12	15	11	4	13	11	11	12	16	146	Benjamin Hosford '21 Emily Grevell '23
Pittsford High School	Knights	16	16	16	15	11	5	15	16	14	15	15	14	168	Bobby Dodge '22 Vitoria Fornataro '23

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (48 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A
Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	6	6
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	2	2
Biotechnology High School Nerds	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	14	14
Broadneck High School Bruins	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	3	3
Christchurch School Seahorses	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	13	13
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	17	17
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	7	7
Fairport High School Red Raiders	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	11	11
Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	10	10
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	16	16
Pittsford High School Knights	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	4	4
Ranney School Panthers	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	12	12
Severn School Admirals	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	8	8
St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	9	9
The Stony Brook School Bears	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	20	20
Toms River North Mariners	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	5	5

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B
Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	6	6
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	2	2
Biotechnology High School Nerds	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	14	14
Broadneck High School Bruins	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	3	3
Christchurch School Seahorses	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	13	13
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	17	17
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	7	7
Fairport High School Red Raiders	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	11	11
Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	10	10
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	16	16
Pittsford High School Knights	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	4	4
Ranney School Panthers	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	12	12
Severn School Admirals	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	8	8
St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	9	9
The Stony Brook School Bears	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	20	20
Toms River North Mariners	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	5	5

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Archbishop Spalding	Hugh Carty '23	Ty Ryan '22
Cavaliers	Griffin Richardson '21 [1-4, 9-12] Ava Farley '22 [5-8]	Joaquin Marquez '21 [1-4, 9-12]
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Nick Budington '21	Liam Gronda '21
Battlin' Baron	Matt Budington '21	Anna Grolleman '22
Biotechnology High School	Benson Chiles '22	Ronan Downie '22
Nerds	Gabby Fontana '23 [1-12]	Aiden Welch '24 [1-2, 5-6, 9-12] Andrew Pepe '23 [3-4, 7-8]
Broadneck High School	Jonjon Weed '22	Will Harding '22
Bruins	Morgan Carew '21	Emilie Orendorff '22
Christchurch School	Carlos Bermudez De Castro Castro '22	Emilie Janzen '22
Seahorses	Gannon Troutman '21	Reese Bragg '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Ryan Ehnot '22	Nicholas Cunha '23
Colts	Colin Guerrera '22	Mitchell Hnatt '24
Donovan Catholic High School	Javier Ojeda '23	Kevin Brooksbank '23
Griffins	James Kopack '24	Caroline Felser '24
Fairport High School	Adam Strobridge '22 [1-12]	Matt Lago '23 [1-4, 7-12] Cameron Bernabei '21 [5-6]
Red Raiders	Benjamin Hosford '21	Emily Grevell '23
Hampton Roads Academy	Pierce Brindley '24	Liam Ambrosino '23
Navigators	Madeline Amthore '22	Ellie Hasbrouck '24
Norfolk Collegiate School	Maggie Campbell '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-12] Alex Schuck '21 [3-4, 7-8]	Clara Murphy '23 [1-2, 5-12] Brylie Schaubach '22 [3-4]
Oaks	Robert Chase '22 [1-2] Harrison Thomson '22 [3-12]	Kiana Beachy '24 [1-8, 11-12] Robert Chase '22 [9-10]
Pittsford High School	Lena Fine '21	Peter Higgins '22
Knights	Bobby Dodge '22	Vitoria Fornataro '23
Ranney School	Brooke Schmelz '21	Ashley Abboud '22
Panthers	Alexa Whitman '22 [1-12]	Grace Bray '23 [1-4, 7-10] Jack Whitman '23 [5-6, 11-12]
Severn School	Thomas Sitzmann '23 [1-10] Owen Hennessey '21 [11-12]	Scarlett Harris '24 [1-2, 11-12] Raam Fox '22 [3-10]
Admirals	Robby Meek '23 [1-10] Zander King '21 [11-12]	Lilly Baker '23 [1-10]
St. Mary's High School (MD)	William Cornell '21	Amelia Johnson '21
Saints	Cole Wiegand '21	Emma Kissell '21
The Stony Brook School	Steven Hardee '22	Mairead Reitzel '24
Bears	Gavin Hudson '24	Lilly Jette '21
Toms River North	Declan Botwinick '21	Evan Harrison '21
Mariners	Everett Botwinick '22 [1-12]	Iliana Vasslides '23 [1-6] Lindsay Walsh '23 [7-12]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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MASSA 2021 Mallory Fleet Qualifier Championship

Division A

Division B

From the notes