Donovan Catholic High School '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.10 (fleet 3.38) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–14 (42%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 10–14 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (24 matches) the record is 10–14 against 9.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-24 | MASSA Baker Team Race Qualifiers | skipper | 2.17 | 2.41 | 10–14 | 9.2 | +0.24 | 0.1 | 44% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| NJISA 2021 Spring Tune-Up Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.8 | 2.66 |
| NJISA 2021 Spring Series 6 | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.6 | 1.03 |
| NJISA 2021 Spring Series 7 | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.5 | 0.82 |
| NJISA 2021 Spring Series 5 | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.0 | 1.76 |
| NJISA 2021 Spring Series 3 | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.8 | 3.77 |
| NJISA 2021 Spring Fleet Championship | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.3 | 1.31 |
| NJISA 2021 Spring Break Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.9 | 2.54 |
| NJISA 2021 Icebreaker Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.9 | 2.25 |
| MASSA Baker Team Race Qualifiers | Skipper | TR | 24 | 42% | — |
| MASSA 2021 Mallory Fleet Qualifier Championship | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.2 | 1.98 |
| Fall 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| NJISA 2020 BBYRA Fall Invitational | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.0 | 3.36 |
| NJISA 2020 Toms River Autumn Challenge | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.9 | 3.53 |
| NJISA 2020 Fall Series 3 | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.5 | 0.30 |
| NJISA 2020 Fall Series 2 | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.0 | 2.04 |
| NJISA 2020 Fall Series 1 | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.2 | 4.25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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