NJISA 2021 Spring Series 7

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 8 8 16
2 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 14 17 31
3 Biotechnology High School Biotechnology High School Nerds 17 17 34
4 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 22 14 36
5 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 20 18 38
6 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 7 32 39
7 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 33 30 63
8 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 33 33 66
9 Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 35 32 67
10 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 32 42 74
11 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 47 33 80
12 Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 47 46 93
13 Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 49 44 93
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 1 2 3 7 Bridget Green '21
Natalie Shaw '23
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 3 3 1 1 8 Declan Botwinick '21
Lindsay Walsh '23
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 4 4 4 2 14 Ryan Ehnot '22
Mitchell Hnatt '24
Biotechnology High School Biotechnology High School Nerds 2 2 7 6 17 Benson Chiles '22
Ronan Downie '22
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 5 5 6 4 20 Brooke Schmelz '21
Ashley Abboud '22
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 8 6 3 5 22 Javier Ojeda '23
Kevin Brooksbank '23
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 9 8 8 7 32 Joe Paccione '21
Nora Ciak '23
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 6 7 9 11 33 Noah Kuzloski '23
Connor Feury '22
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 10 10 5 8 33 Sonja Krajewski '22
Trent Morrison '22
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 7 9 10 9 35 Sydney Gusmer '22 [1-4]
Aashima Chauhan '24 [1-2]
Sophia Galiano '26 [3-4]
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 11 13 11 12 47 Leila Cavanaugh '23
Lauren Desanto '25
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 13 12 12 10 47 Matthew Wilhelm '24 [1-4]
John Flannery '23 [1-2]
Andrew Dinger '24 [3-4]
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 12 11 13 13 49 No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 2 2 2 2 8 Everett Botwinick '22
Iliana Vasslides '23
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 1 6 3 4 14 James Kopack '24
Caroline Felser '24
Biotechnology High School Biotechnology High School Nerds 4 1 5 7 17 Gabby Fontana '23 [1-4]
Aiden Welch '24 [1-2]
Andrew Pepe '23 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 7 5 4 1 17 Colin Guerrera '22
Nicholas Cunha '23
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 3 3 6 6 18 Alexa Whitman '22 [1-2]
Jack Whitman '23 [3-4]
Tomas Mora '23 [1-2]
Alexandria Forrest '22 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 6 9 10 5 30 Luke Pennisi '24
Martin Horowitz '23
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 9 4 9 10 32 Allison Beisel '24 [1-2]
Ella Bilow '22 [3-4]
Mackenzie Boles '27 [1-2]
Caroline Duffy '25 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 12 8 1 11 32 Chloe Witt '23
Kennedy Laureigh '22
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 5 7 13 8 33 Ella Demand '24 [1-2]
Kelly Robinson '24 [3-4]
Sophia Delucca '24 [1-2]
Cali Krean '24 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 8 11 11 3 33 Andrew Chiles '23
Ryan Merkler '24
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 11 10 8 13 42 Sloane Nelson '22 [1-4]
Jeffrey Jackson '24 [1-2]
Dan Drennan '24 [3-4]
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils DNF DNF 7 9 44 No Show
No Show
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 10 12 12 12 46 Owen Desanto '23
Vaughn Armstrong '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Biotechnology High SchoolBiotechnology High School Nerds1111
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles2222
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 13333
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 24444
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 35555
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 16666
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 27777
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers8888
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams10101010
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners12121212
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians13131313
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs14141414
Westfield High SchoolWestfield High School Blue Devils15151515

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Biotechnology High SchoolBiotechnology High School Nerds1111
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles2222
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 13333
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 24444
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 35555
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 16666
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 27777
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers8888
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams10101010
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners12121212
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians13131313
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs14141414
Westfield High SchoolWestfield High School Blue Devils15151515
School / Team SkipperCrew
Biotechnology High School Biotechnology High School Benson Chiles '22 Ronan Downie '22
Nerds Gabby Fontana '23 [1-4] Aiden Welch '24 [1-2]
Andrew Pepe '23 [3-4]
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Leila Cavanaugh '23 Lauren Desanto '25
Eagles Owen Desanto '23 Vaughn Armstrong '22
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Ryan Ehnot '22 Mitchell Hnatt '24
Colts 1 Colin Guerrera '22 Nicholas Cunha '23
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Noah Kuzloski '23 Connor Feury '22
Colts 2 Luke Pennisi '24 Martin Horowitz '23
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Matthew Wilhelm '24 [1-4] John Flannery '23 [1-2]
Andrew Dinger '24 [3-4]
Colts 3 Andrew Chiles '23 Ryan Merkler '24
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Javier Ojeda '23 Kevin Brooksbank '23
Griffins 1 James Kopack '24 Caroline Felser '24
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Joe Paccione '21 Nora Ciak '23
Griffins 2 Sloane Nelson '22 [1-4] Jeffrey Jackson '24 [1-2]
Dan Drennan '24 [3-4]
Ranney School Ranney School Brooke Schmelz '21 Ashley Abboud '22
Panthers Alexa Whitman '22 [1-2]
Jack Whitman '23 [3-4]
Tomas Mora '23 [1-2]
Alexandria Forrest '22 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Bridget Green '21 Natalie Shaw '23
Rams Chloe Witt '23 Kennedy Laureigh '22
Toms River North Toms River North Declan Botwinick '21 Lindsay Walsh '23
Mariners Everett Botwinick '22 Iliana Vasslides '23
Toms River South Toms River South Sonja Krajewski '22 Trent Morrison '22
Indians Ella Demand '24 [1-2]
Kelly Robinson '24 [3-4]
Sophia Delucca '24 [1-2]
Cali Krean '24 [3-4]
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Sydney Gusmer '22 [1-4] Aashima Chauhan '24 [1-2]
Sophia Galiano '26 [3-4]
Monarchs Allison Beisel '24 [1-2]
Ella Bilow '22 [3-4]
Mackenzie Boles '27 [1-2]
Caroline Duffy '25 [3-4]
Westfield High School Westfield High School No Show No Show
Blue Devils No Show No Show

Conditions — 05/19/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 28%  ·  Pressure 1025.9 hPa

Temperature

81°F
↑ 86°F   ↓ 67°F
Feels like 79°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.6 kn
avg  ·  max 6.5 kn
Gusts to 18.9 kn
From N (356°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity28% Pressure1025.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Christian Brothers: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.14 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christian Brothers by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Christian Brothers, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →