MASSA Baker Team Race Qualifiers

HostAnnapolis Yacht Club
Date04/24/2021
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatC420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Severn School	Admirals	24–0
2	Christchurch School	Seahorses	15–9
3	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Battlin' Baron	14–10
4	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	12–12
5	Rye High School	Garnets	13–11
6	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	10–14
7	Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	8–16
8	St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	0–0

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 7,239 team race matches sailed before 2021-04-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 80 of 96 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.370 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.31 ± 0.24: an orderly event, more orderly than 63% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Severn School Admirals	1	8.82	Robby Meek / Lilly Baker 2.77 Thomas Sitzmann / Raam Fox 3.28 18–0 Owen Hennessey / Scarlett Harris 2.68 18–0 Thomas Sitzmann / Scarlett Harris 3.27 6–0 Zander King / Rees Tindall 2.43 6–0	91%	24–0 (100%)	+2.2
2	Christchurch School Seahorses	5	6.03	Carlos Bermudez De Castro Castro / Reese Bragg 2.59 10–8 Gannon Troutman / Marina Dryer 1.94 10–8 Aidan Iaconis / Emilie Janzen 1.13 8–6 Maison Koepke / Sarah Ratcliffe 1.78 5–1 Carlos Bermudez De Castro Castro / Emilie Janzen 2.53 5–1 Gannon Troutman / Reese Bragg 1.95 5–1 Maison Koepke / Emilie Janzen 1.75 2–2	52%	15–9 (62%)	+2.5
3	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron	2	6.64 school +0.27	Matt Budington / Ryan Tatelbaum 2.31 Nick Budington / Simon Ringler 2.26 Liam Gronda / Anna Grolleman 1.73	61%	14–10 (58%)	−0.8
4	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	4	6.40 school −0.13	Harrison Thomson / Brylie Schaubach 2.10 9–12 Alex Schuck / Adam Elci 2.43 11–6 Robert Chase / Sam Beck 1.95 9–4 Maggie Campbell / Clara Murphy 2.25 3–8 Robert Chase / Kiana Beachy 1.84 3–4 Maggie Campbell / Adam Elci 2.33 1–2	54%	12–12 (50%)	−1.1
5	Rye High School Garnets	3	5.95 school +0.50	Quirke Declan / Sacristan Clara 0.88 Vanessa Lahrkamp / Saffer Lillian 3.03 5–8 Matthew Wallace / Van Der Voort Elizabeth 1.92 5–8 Vanessa Lahrkamp / Emmerson Jack 3.05 8–3 Saffer Lillian / Van Der Voort Elizabeth 0.91 8–3	58%	13–11 (54%)	−1.0
6	Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	6	5.02 school −0.16	James Kopack / Caroline Felser Javier Ojeda / Kevin Brooksbank Joe Paccione / Nora Ciak	38%	10–14 (42%)	+0.8
7	Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	7	4.78 school +0.06	Griffin Richardson / Claire Woynerowski 1.31 Ava Farley / Joaquin Marquez 1.64 4–16 Hugh Carty / Ty Ryan 1.94 8–9 Anna Groszkowski / Addison Lisiewski 1.38 4–7	37%	8–16 (33%)	−0.9
8	St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	8	2.40 school −0.13, home +0.04	Amelia Johnson / Bridget Bisson Andrew Tollefson / Christian Fontanella 1.39 Antigua Steward / Cole Wiegand	7%	0–24 (0%)	−1.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Severn School	8.82	11.82	24–0	21.8	≥+3.00	3.0	10%
2	Christchurch School	6.03	6.78	15–9	12.5	+0.75	1.0	17%
6	Donovan Catholic High School	5.02	5.25	10–14	9.2	+0.24	0.1	44%
3	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	6.64	6.41	14–10	14.8	−0.22	0.1	73%
5	Rye High School	5.95	5.67	13–11	14.0	−0.28	0.2	76%
7	Archbishop Spalding	4.78	4.50	8–16	8.9	−0.29	0.1	75%
4	Norfolk Collegiate School	6.40	6.09	12–12	13.1	−0.31	0.2	77%
8	St. Mary's High School (MD)	2.40	-0.60	0–24	1.7	≤−3.00	2.4	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Aidan Iaconis	Christchurch School	1.13	2.42	8–6	5.4	+1.29	1.9	9%
Carlos Bermudez De Castro Castro	Christchurch School	2.59	3.34	15–9	12.5	+0.75	1.0	17%
Alex Schuck	Norfolk Collegiate School	2.43	2.91	11–6	10.0	+0.48	0.3	38%
Javier Ojeda	Donovan Catholic High School	2.17	2.41	10–14	9.2	+0.24	0.1	44%
Joe Paccione	Donovan Catholic High School	0.76	1.00	10–14	9.2	+0.24	0.1	44%
Saffer Lillian	Rye High School	0.91	1.13	8–3	7.7	+0.22	0.0	57%
Quirke Declan	Rye High School	0.88	0.59	13–11	14.0	−0.28	0.2	76%
Ava Farley	Archbishop Spalding	1.64	1.08	4–16	5.4	−0.56	0.4	85%
Anna Groszkowski	Archbishop Spalding	1.38	0.65	4–7	4.8	−0.73	0.3	87%
Maggie Campbell	Norfolk Collegiate School	2.25	1.26	4–10	6.0	−0.99	1.1	94%
Amelia Johnson	St. Mary's High School (MD)	0.52	-2.48	0–24	1.7	≤−3.00	2.4	>99%
Andrew Tollefson	St. Mary's High School (MD)	1.39	-1.61	0–24	1.7	≤−3.00	2.4	>99%
Antigua Steward	St. Mary's High School (MD)	0.38	-2.62	0–24	1.7	≤−3.00	2.4	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Norfolk Collegiate School	Donovan Catholic High School	78%
1	2	Christchurch School	Rye High School	57%
1	3	Severn School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	85%
1	4	Archbishop Spalding	St. Mary's High School (MD)	88%
1	5	Christchurch School	Donovan Catholic High School	67%
1	6	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Norfolk Collegiate School	58%
1	7	Rye High School	St. Mary's High School (MD)	92%
1	8	Severn School	Archbishop Spalding	97%
1	9	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Christchurch School	66%
1	10	Donovan Catholic High School	St. Mary's High School (MD)	88%
1	11	Severn School	Norfolk Collegiate School	84%
1	12	Rye High School	Archbishop Spalding	68%
1	13	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	St. Mary's High School (MD)	97%
1	14	Severn School	Christchurch School	92%
1	15	Rye High School	Donovan Catholic High School	76%
1	16	Norfolk Collegiate School	Archbishop Spalding	77%
1	17	Severn School	St. Mary's High School (MD)	99%
1	18	Rye High School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	45%	upset
1	19	Norfolk Collegiate School	Christchurch School	49%	upset
1	20	Donovan Catholic High School	Archbishop Spalding	49%	upset
1	21	Severn School	Rye High School	88%
1	22	Norfolk Collegiate School	St. Mary's High School (MD)	96%
1	23	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Donovan Catholic High School	79%
1	24	Christchurch School	Archbishop Spalding	73%
1	25	Norfolk Collegiate School	Rye High School	46%	upset
1	26	Severn School	Donovan Catholic High School	94%
1	27	Christchurch School	St. Mary's High School (MD)	96%
1	28	Archbishop Spalding	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	22%	upset
2	29	Norfolk Collegiate School	Donovan Catholic High School	75%
2	30	Christchurch School	Rye High School	57%
2	31	Severn School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	85%
2	32	Archbishop Spalding	St. Mary's High School (MD)	86%
2	33	Donovan Catholic High School	Christchurch School	35%	upset
2	34	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Norfolk Collegiate School	58%
2	35	Rye High School	St. Mary's High School (MD)	91%
2	36	Severn School	Archbishop Spalding	97%
2	37	Christchurch School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	34%	upset
2	38	Donovan Catholic High School	St. Mary's High School (MD)	88%
2	39	Severn School	Norfolk Collegiate School	84%
2	40	Rye High School	Archbishop Spalding	68%
2	41	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	St. Mary's High School (MD)	96%
2	42	Severn School	Christchurch School	92%
2	43	Donovan Catholic High School	Rye High School	26%	upset
2	44	Norfolk Collegiate School	Archbishop Spalding	77%
2	45	Severn School	St. Mary's High School (MD)	99%
2	46	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Rye High School	55%
2	47	Norfolk Collegiate School	Christchurch School	48%	upset
2	48	Archbishop Spalding	Donovan Catholic High School	49%	upset
2	49	Severn School	Rye High School	88%
2	50	Norfolk Collegiate School	St. Mary's High School (MD)	96%
2	51	Donovan Catholic High School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	22%	upset
2	52	Archbishop Spalding	Christchurch School	26%	upset
2	53	Rye High School	Norfolk Collegiate School	54%
2	54	Severn School	Donovan Catholic High School	94%
2	55	Christchurch School	St. Mary's High School (MD)	95%
2	56	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Archbishop Spalding	78%
3	69	Norfolk Collegiate School	Donovan Catholic High School	74%
3	70	Christchurch School	Rye High School	57%
3	71	Severn School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	86%
3	72	Archbishop Spalding	St. Mary's High School (MD)	86%
3	73	Christchurch School	Donovan Catholic High School	64%
3	74	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Norfolk Collegiate School	58%
3	75	Rye High School	St. Mary's High School (MD)	91%
3	76	Severn School	Archbishop Spalding	97%
3	77	Christchurch School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	35%	upset
3	78	Donovan Catholic High School	St. Mary's High School (MD)	89%
3	79	Severn School	Norfolk Collegiate School	85%
3	80	Rye High School	Archbishop Spalding	69%
3	81	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	St. Mary's High School (MD)	96%
3	82	Severn School	Christchurch School	92%
3	83	Rye High School	Donovan Catholic High School	73%
3	84	Norfolk Collegiate School	Archbishop Spalding	77%
3	85	Severn School	St. Mary's High School (MD)	99%
3	86	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Rye High School	54%
3	87	Christchurch School	Norfolk Collegiate School	53%
3	88	Donovan Catholic High School	Archbishop Spalding	52%
3	89	Severn School	Rye High School	88%
3	90	Norfolk Collegiate School	St. Mary's High School (MD)	96%
3	91	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Donovan Catholic High School	77%
3	92	Christchurch School	Archbishop Spalding	74%
3	93	Rye High School	Norfolk Collegiate School	54%
3	94	Severn School	Donovan Catholic High School	94%
3	95	Christchurch School	St. Mary's High School (MD)	95%
3	96	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Archbishop Spalding	78%
4	57	Severn School	Norfolk Collegiate School	85%
4	58	Christchurch School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	34%	upset
4	59	Christchurch School	Norfolk Collegiate School	52%
4	60	Severn School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	85%
4	61	Severn School	Christchurch School	92%
4	62	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Norfolk Collegiate School	58%
4	63	Archbishop Spalding	Donovan Catholic High School	48%	upset
4	64	Rye High School	St. Mary's High School (MD)	91%
4	65	Donovan Catholic High School	St. Mary's High School (MD)	89%
4	66	Rye High School	Archbishop Spalding	69%
4	67	Archbishop Spalding	St. Mary's High School (MD)	86%
4	68	Donovan Catholic High School	Rye High School	26%	upset

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Oaks	1-2-4	def.	Griffins	3-5-6 DNF
2	Seahorses	1-2-5	def.	Garnets	3-4-6
3	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Battlin' Baron	3-4-6
4	Cavaliers	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
5	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Griffins	4-5-6
6	Battlin' Baron	2-3-4	def.	Oaks	1-5-6
7	Garnets	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
8	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Cavaliers	4-5-6
9	Battlin' Baron	1-3-6	def.	Seahorses	2-4-5
10	Griffins	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
11	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Oaks	3-4-6
12	Garnets	1-2-6	def.	Cavaliers	3-4-5
13	Battlin' Baron	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
14	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Seahorses	3-5-6
15	Garnets	1-3-5	def.	Griffins	2-4-6
16	Oaks	1-2-4	def.	Cavaliers	3-5-6
17	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
18	Garnets	1-2-6	def.	Battlin' Baron	3-4-5
19	Oaks	1-2-4	def.	Seahorses	3-5-6
20	Griffins	1-2-6	def.	Cavaliers	3-4-5
21	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Garnets	3-5-6
22	Oaks	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
23	Battlin' Baron	1-2-5	def.	Griffins	3-4-6
24	Seahorses	1-2-6	def.	Cavaliers	3-4-5
25	Oaks	1-4-5	def.	Garnets	2-3-6
26	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Griffins	4-5-6
27	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
28	Cavaliers	1-3-6	def.	Battlin' Baron	2-4-5
29	Oaks	1-2-5	def.	Griffins	3-4-6
30	Seahorses	2-3-5	def.	Garnets	1-4-6
31	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Battlin' Baron	3-5-6
32	Cavaliers	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
33	Griffins	1-2-6	def.	Seahorses	3-4-5
34	Battlin' Baron	1-2-5	def.	Oaks	3-4-6
35	Garnets	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
36	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Cavaliers	4-5-6
37	Seahorses	1-3-5	def.	Battlin' Baron	2-4-6
38	Griffins	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
39	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Oaks	3-4-6
40	Garnets	2-3-4	def.	Cavaliers	1-5-6
41	Battlin' Baron	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
42	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Seahorses	4-5-6
43	Griffins	1-2-5	def.	Garnets	3-4-6
44	Oaks	1-2-5	def.	Cavaliers	3-4-6
45	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
46	Battlin' Baron	1-2-4	def.	Garnets	3-5-6
47	Oaks	1-2-4	def.	Seahorses	3-5-6
48	Cavaliers	1-2-4	def.	Griffins	3-5-6
49	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Garnets	3-4-6
50	Oaks	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
51	Griffins	1-2-6	def.	Battlin' Baron	3-4-5
52	Cavaliers	1-2-5	def.	Seahorses	3-4-6
53	Garnets	1-3-5	def.	Oaks	2-4-6
54	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Griffins	3-5-6
55	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
56	Battlin' Baron	1-3-4	def.	Cavaliers	2-5-6
69	Oaks	1-2-5	def.	Griffins	3-4-6
70	Seahorses	1-3-4	def.	Garnets	2-5-6
71	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Battlin' Baron	4-5-6
72	Cavaliers	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
73	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Griffins	4-5-6
74	Battlin' Baron	2-3-4	def.	Oaks	1-5-6
75	Garnets	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
76	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Cavaliers	4-5-6
77	Seahorses	1-2-5	def.	Battlin' Baron	3-4-6
78	Griffins	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
79	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Oaks	3-4-6
80	Garnets	2-3-5	def.	Cavaliers	1-4-6
81	Battlin' Baron	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
82	Admirals	1-2-6	def.	Seahorses	3-4-5
83	Garnets	1-2-5	def.	Griffins	3-4-6
84	Oaks	1-3-6	def.	Cavaliers	2-4-5
85	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
86	Battlin' Baron	1-3-6	def.	Garnets	2-4-5
87	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Oaks	4-5-6
88	Griffins	1-3-5	def.	Cavaliers	2-4-6
89	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Garnets	4-5-6
90	Oaks	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
91	Battlin' Baron	1-2-6	def.	Griffins	3-4-5
92	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Cavaliers	3-5-6
93	Garnets	1-2-4	def.	Oaks	3-5-6
94	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Griffins	3-5-6
95	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
96	Battlin' Baron	1-2-3	def.	Cavaliers	4-5-6
57	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Oaks	4-5-6
58	Seahorses	1-4-5	def.	Battlin' Baron	2-3-6
59	Seahorses	1-2-5	def.	Oaks	3-4-6
60	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Battlin' Baron	4-5-6
61	Admirals	2-3-4	def.	Seahorses	1-5-6
62	Battlin' Baron	2-3-4	def.	Oaks	1-5-6
63	Cavaliers	1-3-6	def.	Griffins	2-4-5
64	Garnets	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
65	Griffins	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
66	Garnets	1-2-3	def.	Cavaliers	4-5-6
67	Cavaliers	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
68	Griffins	1-3-6	def.	Garnets	2-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Severn School	Admirals	Owen Hennessey '21 Robby Meek '23 Thomas Sitzmann '23 Zander King '21	Scarlett Harris '24 Lilly Baker '23 Raam Fox '22 Rees Tindall '21
Christchurch School	Seahorses	Aidan Iaconis '22 Carlos Bermudez De Castro Castro '22 Gannon Troutman '21 Maison Koepke '23	Emilie Janzen '22 Reese Bragg '21 Marina Dryer '22 Sarah Ratcliffe '22
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Battlin' Baron	Liam Gronda '21 Matt Budington '21 Nick Budington '21	Anna Grolleman '22 Ryan Tatelbaum '21 Simon Ringler '23
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	Alex Schuck '21 Harrison Thomson '22 Maggie Campbell '22 Robert Chase '22	Adam Elci '22 Brylie Schaubach '22 Clara Murphy '23 Sam Beck '21 Kiana Beachy '24
Rye High School	Garnets	Lahrkamp Vanessa '22 Matthew Wallace '21 Quirke Declan '22 Saffer Lillian '23	Saffer Lillian '23 Emmerson Jack '23 Van Der Voort Elizabeth '21 Sacristan Clara '22
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	James Kopack '24 Javier Ojeda '23 Joe Paccione '21	Caroline Felser '24 Kevin Brooksbank '23 Nora Ciak '23
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	Anna Groszkowski '22 Ava Farley '22 Griffin Richardson '21 Hugh Carty '23	Addison Lisiewski '22 Joaquin Marquez '21 Claire Woynerowski '22 Ty Ryan '22
St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	Amelia Johnson '21 Andrew Tollefson '22 Antigua Steward '24	Bridget Bisson '22 Christian Fontanella '22 Cole Wiegand '21

Conditions — 04/24/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 50% · Pressure 1017.2 hPa

Temperature

58°F

↑ 62°F ↓ 48°F

Feels like 54°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.8 kn

avg · max 7.6 kn

Gusts to 18.1 kn

From SSE (150°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine7.3 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1017.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Annapolis Yacht Club — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Annapolis Yacht Club in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Annapolis Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Annapolis Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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