NJISA 2021 Spring Series 5

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 14 6 20
2 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 16 7 23
3 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 13 17 30
4 Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 9 23 32
5 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 37 16 53
6 Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 31 25 56
7 Biotechnology High School Biotechnology High School Nerds 37 23 60
8 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 21 40 61
9 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 32 38 70
10 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 19 55 74
11 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 46 41 87
12 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 41 48 89
13 Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 50 41 91
14 Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 57 49 106
15 St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 57 51 108
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 2 4 2 1 9 Everett Botwinick '22
Lindsay Walsh '23
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 6 1 5 13 Brooke Schmelz '21 [1-4]
Ashley Abboud '22 [1-2]
Alexandria Forrest '22 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 5 3 4 2 14 Ryan Ehnot '22
Nicholas Cunha '23
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 4 1 5 6 16 Javier Ojeda '23
Kevin Brooksbank '23
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 5 7 4 19 Thomas Marino '21
Paige Lubrano '22
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 7 8 3 3 21 Bridget Green '21
Natalie Shaw '23
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 11 7 6 7 31 Sophie Harrington '22
Owen Geohegan '22
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 8 2 11 11 32 Joe Paccione '21
Nora Ciak '23
Biotechnology High School Biotechnology High School Nerds 6 13 8 10 37 Benson Chiles '22
Ronan Downie '22
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 9 11 9 8 37 Noah Kuzloski '23
Connor Feury '22
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 13 9 10 9 41 Walter Mehl '21
Martin Horowitz '23
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 12 10 12 12 46 Sonja Krajewski '22
Trent Morrison '22
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 10 12 13 15 50 Leila Cavanaugh '23
Annabel Bornebusch '22
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 14 14 15 14 57 Ella Bilow '22 [1-4]
Caroline Duffy '25 [1-2]
Sydney Gusmer '22 [3-4]
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 15 15 14 13 57 Mason Medolla '22
Zander Rudd '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 1 1 2 2 6 Colin Guerrera '22
Mitchell Hnatt '24
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 2 3 1 1 7 James Kopack '24
Caroline Felser '24
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 6 2 4 4 16 Luke Pennisi '24
Andrew Chiles '23
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 4 5 5 3 17 Alexa Whitman '22 [1-2]
Jack Whitman '23 [3-4]
Grace Bray '23 [1-2]
Tomas Mora '23 [3-4]
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 5 4 8 6 23 Iliana Vasslides '23
No Show
Biotechnology High School Biotechnology High School Nerds 7 6 3 7 23 Gabby Fontana '23
Andrew Pepe '23
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 3 7 7 8 25 Logan Twining '22
Hannah Nitka '25
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 9 8 6 15 38 Gabriel Anama '21 [1-4]
Dan Drennan '24 [1-2]
Jeffrey Jackson '24 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 15 10 10 5 40 Chloe Witt '23
Alex Klinov '22
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 8 11 12 10 41 Owen Desanto '23
Vaughn Armstrong '22
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 10 9 13 9 41 Cali Krean '24
Kelly Robinson '24
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 11 12 14 11 48 John Ruane '21 [1-2]
Matthew Wilhelm '24 [3-4]
Andrew Dinger '24 [1-2]
John Flannery '23 [3-4]
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 12 14 11 12 49 Allison Beisel '24
Margaret Burns '27
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 14 15 9 13 51 No Show
No Show
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 13 13 15 14 55 Jonathan Field '22
Milos Buchberger '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Biotechnology High SchoolBiotechnology High School Nerds16161616
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles1111
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars2222
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 13333
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 24444
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 35555
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 16666
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 27777
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers8888
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs9999
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams10101010
St. Augustine Prep SchoolSt. Augustine Prep School Hermits11111111
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners12121212
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians13131313
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs15151515

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Biotechnology High SchoolBiotechnology High School Nerds16161616
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles1111
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars2222
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 13333
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 24444
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 35555
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 16666
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 27777
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers8888
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs9999
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams10101010
St. Augustine Prep SchoolSt. Augustine Prep School Hermits11111111
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners12121212
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians13131313
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs15151515
School / Team SkipperCrew
Biotechnology High School Biotechnology High School Benson Chiles '22 Ronan Downie '22
Nerds Gabby Fontana '23 Andrew Pepe '23
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Leila Cavanaugh '23 Annabel Bornebusch '22
Eagles Owen Desanto '23 Vaughn Armstrong '22
Chatham High School Chatham High School Thomas Marino '21 Paige Lubrano '22
Cougars Jonathan Field '22 Milos Buchberger '21
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Ryan Ehnot '22 Nicholas Cunha '23
Colts 1 Colin Guerrera '22 Mitchell Hnatt '24
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Noah Kuzloski '23 Connor Feury '22
Colts 2 Luke Pennisi '24 Andrew Chiles '23
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Walter Mehl '21 Martin Horowitz '23
Colts 3 John Ruane '21 [1-2]
Matthew Wilhelm '24 [3-4]
Andrew Dinger '24 [1-2]
John Flannery '23 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Javier Ojeda '23 Kevin Brooksbank '23
Griffins 1 James Kopack '24 Caroline Felser '24
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Joe Paccione '21 Nora Ciak '23
Griffins 2 Gabriel Anama '21 [1-4] Dan Drennan '24 [1-2]
Jeffrey Jackson '24 [3-4]
Ranney School Ranney School Brooke Schmelz '21 [1-4] Ashley Abboud '22 [1-2]
Alexandria Forrest '22 [3-4]
Panthers Alexa Whitman '22 [1-2]
Jack Whitman '23 [3-4]
Grace Bray '23 [1-2]
Tomas Mora '23 [3-4]
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Sophie Harrington '22 Owen Geohegan '22
Bulldogs Logan Twining '22 Hannah Nitka '25
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Bridget Green '21 Natalie Shaw '23
Rams Chloe Witt '23 Alex Klinov '22
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Mason Medolla '22 Zander Rudd '24
Hermits No Show No Show
Toms River North Toms River North Everett Botwinick '22 Lindsay Walsh '23
Mariners Iliana Vasslides '23 No Show
Toms River South Toms River South Sonja Krajewski '22 Trent Morrison '22
Indians Cali Krean '24 Kelly Robinson '24
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Ella Bilow '22 [1-4] Caroline Duffy '25 [1-2]
Sydney Gusmer '22 [3-4]
Monarchs Allison Beisel '24 Margaret Burns '27

Conditions — 04/28/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 43%  ·  Pressure 1009.8 hPa

Temperature

80°F
↑ 87°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 80°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.0 kn
avg  ·  max 8.6 kn
Gusts to 18.7 kn
From W (272°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover89% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1009.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Christian Brothers: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.16 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christian Brothers by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Christian Brothers, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →