VISA Nansemond Suffolk Academy Fleet Race Regatta

HostYouth Sailing Virginia
Date03/27/2021
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	18	32	50
2	Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	38	18	56
3	Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	38	21	59
4	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	33	35	68
5	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	31	39	70
6	Kecoughtan High School	Warriors	36	51	87
7	Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	63	52	115
8	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	41	91	132
9	Poquoson High School	Islanders 1	79	55	134
10	Granby High School	Comets	84	62	146
11	Christchurch School	Seahorses 3	56	109	165
12	Grafton High School	Varsity	86	79	165
13	Maury High School	Commodores	86	83	169
14	Poquoson High School	Islanders 3	110	65	175
15	York High School	Varsity	67	112	179
16	Poquoson High School	Islanders 2	92	90	182
17	The Hague School	The Tritons	117	96	213

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	2	6	2	1	1	2	4	18	Kyle Pfrang '22 [1-7] Nicholas Bielewicz '26 [1, 3-7] Leila Pfrang '25 [2]
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	1	3	1	4	3	RAF	1	31	Alex Schuck '21 Adam Elci '22
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	7	1	5	3	11	1	5	33	Sean Trudell '24 [1-7] Emily Britt '23 [1-6] Sabrina Casagrande '25 [7]
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors	6	2	7	6	5	3	7	36	Tyler Brown '23 Jack Herritage '24
Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	4	5	3	7	6	7	6	38	Gannon Troutman '21 Marina Dryer '22
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	5	4	11	9	2	5	2	38	Parker Moore '25 Pierce Brindley '24
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	9	8	4	2	4	6	8	41	Kiana Beachy '24 [1-2] Robert Chase '22 [3-7] Clara Murphy '23 [1-2] Brylie Schaubach '22 [3-7]
Christchurch School	Seahorses 3	8	7	9	10	7	4	11	56	Maison Koepke '23 Nat Bonham '24
Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	3	10	12	12	8	9	9	63	Aidan Iaconis '22 Sarah Ratcliffe '22
York High School	Varsity	14	16	6	5	13	10	3	67	Justin Kelly '25 [1-7] Nick Fogt '23 [1-2] Nathan Shaw '26 [3-4] Liam Burke '27 [5-7]
Poquoson High School	Islanders 1	12	11	10	14	9	8	15	79	Ashlyn Wise '21 Ava Michel '22
Granby High School	Comets	10	9	13	13	14	12	13	84	Henry Allard '23 [1-4] Davis Mann '23 [5-7] Hannah Bonheur '24 [1-4]
Grafton High School	Varsity	11	12	14	16	12	11	10	86	Blake Goodwin '23 [1-7] Nathan Shaw '26 [1-2, 7] Nick Fogt '23 [3-6]
Maury High School	Commodores	13	15	8	8	15	13	14	86	Connor Mccarty '21 Ava Morgan '25
Poquoson High School	Islanders 2	15	14	15	11	10	15	12	92	Chase Brewer '22 [1-3, 7] Evan Harris '24 [4-6] Barrett Wise '23 [1-3, 7] Tiernan Boyd '23 [4-6]
Poquoson High School	Islanders 3	17	13	16	15	17	14	DSQ	110	Aubrey Walton '23 [1-6] Evan Harris '24 [7] Maryjane Ramos '23 [1-6] Tiernan Boyd '23 [7]
The Hague School	The Tritons	16	17	17	17	16	16	DNF	117	Nicholas Davis '24 Madeline Ballard '25

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	1	1	5	3	1	1	6	18	Carlos Bermudez De Castro Castro '22 Emilie Janzen '22
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	5	5	1	2	4	2	2	21	Bo Angus '25 William Sutton '26
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	3	2	11	1	7	3	5	32	Leila Pfrang '25 Kevin Li '23
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	6	9	2	7	2	6	3	35	Jennifer Permenter '21 Audrey Permenter '23
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	2	6	4	5	3	OCS	1	39	Harrison Thomson '22 Sam Beck '21
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors	7	8	6	9	6	5	10	51	Morgan Handly '21 [1-7] Molly Hanson '23 [1-2, 5-6] Sophia Carleton '26 [3-4, 7]
Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	4	4	10	6	11	8	9	52	Jaxon Parker Searcy '22 Erin Stoik '22
Poquoson High School	Islanders 1	10	3	7	8	8	7	12	55	Olivia Gilmore '23 Emery Hill '23
Granby High School	Comets	DNF	7	3	12	5	13	4	62	Joe Murphy '24 Reagan Evans '23
Poquoson High School	Islanders 3	8	12	8	4	14	11	8	65	Cam Brewer '24 Mackenzie Haynes '24
Grafton High School	Varsity	11	13	9	13	12	14	7	79	Luke Manternach '22 Gracie Goodwin '25
Maury High School	Commodores	13	14	12	10	10	10	14	83	Charlotte Shumate '24 [1-4] Emily Priest '25 [5-7] Emily Priest '25 [1-4] Charlotte Shumate '24 [5-7]
Poquoson High School	Islanders 2	12	11	13	15	BKD	15	11	90	Grace Watlington '22 Ella Larocco '22
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	9	10	DSQ	DSQ	9	9	DSQ	91	Maddie Murphy '25 [1-2, 5-6] Kiana Beachy '24 [3-4, 7] Clara Murphy '23 [1-2, 5-6]
The Hague School	The Tritons	15	15	15	11	15	12	13	96	Charlotte Stillman '23 Justina Reynolds '24
Christchurch School	Seahorses 3	14	DNF	14	14	13	DNS	DNS	109	Peyton Mcdonald '23 Casey Moss '23
York High School	Varsity	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DNF	4	DSQ	112	Justin Kelly '25 [1-4, 7] Nick Fogt '23 [5-6] Liam Burke '27 [1-2, 5-6] Nathan Shaw '26 [3-4] Nick Fogt '23 [7]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.120+0.12

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (48 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
Christchurch School Seahorses 1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Christchurch School Seahorses 2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Christchurch School Seahorses 3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Grafton High School Varsity	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Granby High School Comets	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Kecoughtan High School Warriors	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Maury High School Commodores	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	18	18	18	18	18	18	18
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Poquoson High School Islanders 1	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Poquoson High School Islanders 2	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Poquoson High School Islanders 3	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
The Hague School The Tritons	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
York High School Varsity	9	9	9	9	9	9	9

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
Christchurch School Seahorses 1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Christchurch School Seahorses 2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Christchurch School Seahorses 3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Grafton High School Varsity	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Granby High School Comets	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Kecoughtan High School Warriors	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Maury High School Commodores	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	18	18	18	18	18	18	18
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Poquoson High School Islanders 1	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Poquoson High School Islanders 2	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Poquoson High School Islanders 3	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
The Hague School The Tritons	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
York High School Varsity	9	9	9	9	9	9	9

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Christchurch School	Gannon Troutman '21	Marina Dryer '22
Seahorses 1	Carlos Bermudez De Castro Castro '22	Emilie Janzen '22
Christchurch School	Aidan Iaconis '22	Sarah Ratcliffe '22
Seahorses 2	Jaxon Parker Searcy '22	Erin Stoik '22
Christchurch School	Maison Koepke '23	Nat Bonham '24
Seahorses 3	Peyton Mcdonald '23	Casey Moss '23
Grafton High School	Blake Goodwin '23 [1-7]	Nathan Shaw '26 [1-2, 7] Nick Fogt '23 [3-6]
Varsity	Luke Manternach '22	Gracie Goodwin '25
Granby High School	Henry Allard '23 [1-4] Davis Mann '23 [5-7]	Hannah Bonheur '24 [1-4]
Comets	Joe Murphy '24	Reagan Evans '23
Hampton Roads Academy	Parker Moore '25	Pierce Brindley '24
Navigators	Bo Angus '25	William Sutton '26
Kecoughtan High School	Tyler Brown '23	Jack Herritage '24
Warriors	Morgan Handly '21 [1-7]	Molly Hanson '23 [1-2, 5-6] Sophia Carleton '26 [3-4, 7]
Maury High School	Connor Mccarty '21	Ava Morgan '25
Commodores	Charlotte Shumate '24 [1-4] Emily Priest '25 [5-7]	Emily Priest '25 [1-4] Charlotte Shumate '24 [5-7]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Kyle Pfrang '22 [1-7]	Nicholas Bielewicz '26 [1, 3-7] Leila Pfrang '25 [2]
Saints	Leila Pfrang '25	Kevin Li '23
Norfolk Academy	Sean Trudell '24 [1-7]	Emily Britt '23 [1-6] Sabrina Casagrande '25 [7]
Bulldogs	Jennifer Permenter '21	Audrey Permenter '23
Norfolk Collegiate School	Alex Schuck '21	Adam Elci '22
Oaks 1	Harrison Thomson '22	Sam Beck '21
Norfolk Collegiate School	Kiana Beachy '24 [1-2] Robert Chase '22 [3-7]	Clara Murphy '23 [1-2] Brylie Schaubach '22 [3-7]
Oaks 2	Maddie Murphy '25 [1-2, 5-6] Kiana Beachy '24 [3-4, 7]	Clara Murphy '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Poquoson High School	Ashlyn Wise '21	Ava Michel '22
Islanders 1	Olivia Gilmore '23	Emery Hill '23
Poquoson High School	Chase Brewer '22 [1-3, 7] Evan Harris '24 [4-6]	Barrett Wise '23 [1-3, 7] Tiernan Boyd '23 [4-6]
Islanders 2	Grace Watlington '22	Ella Larocco '22
Poquoson High School	Aubrey Walton '23 [1-6] Evan Harris '24 [7]	Maryjane Ramos '23 [1-6] Tiernan Boyd '23 [7]
Islanders 3	Cam Brewer '24	Mackenzie Haynes '24
The Hague School	Nicholas Davis '24	Madeline Ballard '25
The Tritons	Charlotte Stillman '23	Justina Reynolds '24
York High School	Justin Kelly '25 [1-7]	Nick Fogt '23 [1-2] Nathan Shaw '26 [3-4] Liam Burke '27 [5-7]
Varsity	Justin Kelly '25 [1-4, 7] Nick Fogt '23 [5-6]	Liam Burke '27 [1-2, 5-6] Nathan Shaw '26 [3-4] Nick Fogt '23 [7]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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VISA Nansemond Suffolk Academy Fleet Race Regatta

Division A

Division B

From the notes