Granby High School '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.48 (fleet 0.78) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–15 (25%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2021 | 2 | 5–12 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 0–3 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (20 matches) the record is 5–15 against 5.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-23 | VISA Team Race Championship and Qualifier | skipper | 0.68 | 0.48 | 2–7 | 2.2 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2021-10-09 | VISA NA Team Race Regatta 2 | skipper | 0.55 | 1.33 | 3–5 | 2.2 | +0.78 | 0.3 | 39% |
| 2021-03-20 | VISA CCS Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.51 | -2.49 | 0–3 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA York/Grafton Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | 2 | 11.5 | 0.46 |
| VISA WCA/WA V Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 8.3 | 0.33 |
| VISA Team Race Championship and Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| VISA NA Team Race Regatta 2 | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| VISA NA JV Fleet Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.8 | 2.72 |
| VISA Kecoughtan/Phoebus Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.2 | -0.24 |
| VISA Fall Fleet Championship | Skipper | A | 7 | 16.7 | -1.63 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Fleet Qualifier | Crew | A | 6 | 8.5 | — |
| VISA CCS Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| VISA Nansemond Suffolk Academy Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 13.0 | -0.73 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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