| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | 8–2 |
| 2 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 8–2 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 1 | 6–4 |
| 4 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | 1–9 |
| 5 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders | 3–4 |
| 6 |  |
Grafton High School | Varsity | 3–4 |
| 7 |  |
Granby High School | Comets | 1–6 |
| 8 | |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 2 | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,993 team race matches sailed before 2021-03-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 6 of 7 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.433 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | 2 | 2.83 home +0.03 | Peyton Mcdonald / Cameron Nealon Jaxon Parker Searcy / Sarah Ratcliffe 1.59 Maison Koepke / Erin Stoik | 57% | 1–3 (25%) | −1.3 |
| 3 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | 1 | 3.52 school −0.14 | Alex Schuck / Mason Chapman Jr. 2.00 Kiana Beachy / Clara Murphy Maddie Murphy / Jackson Delanty | 74% | 4–0 (100%) | +1.0 |
| 4 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 2 | 2.83 home +0.03 | Peyton Mcdonald / Cameron Nealon Jaxon Parker Searcy / Sarah Ratcliffe 1.59 Maison Koepke / Erin Stoik | 57% | 1–3 (25%) | −1.3 |
| 6 | Grafton High School Varsity | 3 | 1.65 school −0.20 | Blake Goodwin / Nick Fogt Luke Manternach / Gracie Goodwin Justin Kelly / Savanah Van Cleave | 39% | 2–1 (67%) | +0.8 |
| 7 | Granby High School Comets | 4 | 0.68 | Huaqiu "Cho-Cho" Williams / Gabby Cloe Henry Allard / Hannah Bonheur Davis Mann / Reagan Evans | 19% | 0–3 (0%) | −0.6 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | 3.52 | 6.53 | 4–0 | 3.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.6 | 29% |
| 6 | Grafton High School Varsity | 1.65 | 3.41 | 2–1 | 1.2 | +1.76 | 0.8 | 31% |
| 4 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 2.83 | 0.68 | 1–3 | 2.3 | −2.15 | 1.5 | 98% |
| 7 | Granby High School Comets | 0.68 | -2.32 | 0–3 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Schuck | Norfolk Collegiate School | 2.00 | 5.00 | 4–0 | 3.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.6 | 29% |
| Justin Kelly | Grafton High School | 0.31 | 2.07 | 2–1 | 1.2 | +1.76 | 0.8 | 31% |
| Peyton Mcdonald | Christchurch School | -0.32 | -2.47 | 1–3 | 2.3 | −2.15 | 1.5 | 98% |
| Jaxon Parker Searcy | Christchurch School | 1.59 | -0.55 | 1–3 | 2.3 | −2.15 | 1.5 | 98% |
| Huaqiu "Cho-Cho" Williams | Granby High School | -0.04 | -3.04 | 0–3 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
| Henry Allard | Granby High School | 0.09 | -2.91 | 0–3 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
| Davis Mann | Granby High School | 0.51 | -2.49 | 0–3 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Grafton High School Varsity | Granby High School Comets | 68% | |
| 2 | 2 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 64% | |
| 2 | 5 | Grafton High School Varsity | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 29% | upset |
| 2 | 6 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | Granby High School Comets | 90% | |
| 2 | 9 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | Granby High School Comets | 84% | |
| 2 | 10 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | Grafton High School Varsity | 81% | |
| 4 | 33 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 63% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Islanders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 1 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Comets | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 5 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Comets | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Comets | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Comets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Islanders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Comets | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Comets | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Navigators | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Islanders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 DNS |
| 27 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Comets | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Navigators | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 1 | Alex Schuck '21 Kiana Beachy '24 Maddie Murphy '25 |
Mason Chapman Jr. '22 Clara Murphy '23 Jackson Delanty '23 |
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | Jaxon Parker Searcy '22 Maison Koepke '23 Peyton Mcdonald '23 |
Sarah Ratcliffe '22 Erin Stoik '22 Cameron Nealon '23 |
|
Grafton High School | Varsity | Blake Goodwin '23 Justin Kelly '25 Luke Manternach '22 |
Nick Fogt '23 Savanah Van Cleave '25 Gracie Goodwin '25 |
|
Granby High School | Comets | Davis Mann '23 Henry Allard '23 Huaqiu "Cho-Cho" Williams '22 |
Reagan Evans '23 Hannah Bonheur '24 Gabby Cloe '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
