Grafton High School '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.32 (fleet 0.50) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–15 (35%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2021 | 2 | 6–14 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 2–1 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (23 matches) the record is 8–15 against 5.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-23 | VISA Team Race Championship and Qualifier | skipper | 0.43 | 0.61 | 2–7 | 1.8 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 59% |
| 2021-10-09 | VISA NA Team Race Regatta 2 | skipper | 0.45 | 1.54 | 4–7 | 2.8 | +1.09 | 0.8 | 26% |
| 2021-03-20 | VISA CCS Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.31 | 2.07 | 2–1 | 1.2 | +1.76 | 0.8 | 31% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Team Race Championship and Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| VISA NA Team Race Regatta 2 | Skipper | TR | 11 | 36% | — |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA CCS Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA York County JV Fleet Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 7.3 | 0.23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
