| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | 8–0 |
| 2 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 1 | 5–3 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 1 | 5–3 |
| 4 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | 2–6 |
| 5 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders 1 | 3–4 |
| 6 |  |
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Saints | 6–1 |
| 7 |  |
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | 1–6 |
| 8 |  |
York High School | Varsity | 4–3 |
| 9 | |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 2 | 6–2 |
| 10 | |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 2 | 4–4 |
| 11 |  |
Walsingham Academy | Trojans | 4–2 |
| 12 |  |
Catholic High School | Crusaders | 2–4 |
| 13 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 2–6 |
| 14 | |
Poquoson High School | Islanders 2 | 3–5 |
| 15 |  |
Granby High School | Comets | 3–3 |
| 16 |  |
Grafton High School | Varsity | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,871 team race matches sailed before 2019-10-12, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 19 of 22 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.322 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.66 ± 0.48: an orderly event, more orderly than 89% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | 7.20 | 10.20 | 8–0 | 7.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.3 | 35% |
| 3 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | 5.16 | 5.79 | 5–3 | 4.3 | +0.63 | 0.2 | 44% |
| 2 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | 5.39 | 5.70 | 5–3 | 4.7 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 56% |
| 7 | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | 2.81 | 2.47 | 1–5 | 1.2 | −0.34 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 4 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 3.87 | 3.50 | 2–6 | 2.4 | −0.36 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 5 | Poquoson High School Islanders 1 | 3.76 | 1.85 | 1–5 | 2.4 | −1.91 | 1.4 | 97% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Schuck | Norfolk Collegiate School | 2.14 | 2.45 | 5–3 | 4.7 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 56% |
| Anne Jensen | Christchurch School | 0.80 | 0.44 | 2–6 | 2.4 | −0.36 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Jaxon Parker Searcy | Christchurch School | 1.44 | 1.08 | 2–6 | 2.4 | −0.36 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Louie Lafevre | Christchurch School | 1.52 | 1.15 | 2–6 | 2.4 | −0.36 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Jack Mckenna | Poquoson High School | 2.16 | 0.25 | 1–5 | 2.4 | −1.91 | 1.4 | 97% |
| Eleanor Patterson | Poquoson High School | 0.81 | -1.10 | 1–5 | 2.4 | −1.91 | 1.4 | 97% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Seahorses 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Islanders 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Oaks 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Islanders 1 | 1-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Islanders 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 38 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Saints | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-5 |
| 40 | |
Islanders 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Warriors | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Islanders 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Saints | 1-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 46 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS | def. | |
Saints | 1-2-3 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 48 | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS | def. | |
Islanders 1 | 1-2-3 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 16 | |
Comets | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 17 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Saints | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Islanders 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Trojans | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Crusaders | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 21 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Crusaders | 1-3-6 DNS | def. | |
Comets | 2-4-5 DNS |
| 25 | |
Saints | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Trojans | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-3-6 |
| 29 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Trojans | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Comets | 2-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Islanders 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 1-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Saints | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-3-6 |
| 36 | |
Crusaders | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 49 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-5 |
| 50 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Crusaders | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 51 | |
Islanders 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Comets | 3-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Commodores | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 53 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-3-5 DNS | def. | |
Crusaders | 2-4-6 DNS |
| 54 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-5 |
| 55 | |
Islanders 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 56 | |
Comets | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 |
| 57 | |
Trojans | 1-3-5 DNS | def. | |
Crusaders | 2-4-6 DNS |
| 58 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 59 | |
Comets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 60 | |
Commodores | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Islanders 2 | 2-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | Gannon Troutman '21 John Vail '20 Nathan Smith '20 |
Reese Bragg '21 Marina Dryer '22 Anna Flynn '20 Kennedy Jones '20 |
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 1 | Alex Schuck '21 Harrison Thomson '22 Robert Chase '22 |
Adam Elci '22 Sam Beck '21 Jon Krueger '20 |
|
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 1 | Charlie Britt '21 Henry Allgeier '23 Jennifer Permenter '21 Michael Hostutler '20 |
Elaina Tenfelde '20 Ali Zaidi '20 Audrey Permenter '23 |
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | Anne Jensen '21 Jaxon Parker Searcy '22 Louie Lafevre '21 |
Peyton Smith '21 Francesca Penati '22 Cindy Wang '21 Anna Flynn '20 Marina Dryer '22 |
|
Poquoson High School | Islanders 1 | Chase Brewer '22 Eleanor Patterson '22 Jack Mckenna '20 |
Grace Watlington '22 Claire Dicarlo '22 Emmaline Dicarlo '20 |
|
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | Megan Geith '20 Morgan Handly '21 Tyler Brown '23 |
Charlotte Pirnik '20 Tori Dixon '20 Ramazani Clement '23 Ryan Nguyen '20 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
