| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | 7–1 |
| 2 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 6–2 |
| 3 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | 5–2 |
| 4 |  |
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Saints | 5–3 |
| 5 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | 4–4 |
| 6 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 3 | 4–5 |
| 7 |  |
Grafton High School | Varsity | 3–5 |
| 8 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders | 3–5 |
| 9 |  |
Granby High School | Comets | 2–5 |
| 10 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,023 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-19, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 2 of 2 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.479 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Grafton High School Varsity | 1 | 3.08 school +0.11 | Blake Goodwin / Gracie Goodwin 1.39 Luke Manternach / Helen Schmuck 1.11 Nick Fogt / Elias Rooker | 62% | 2–0 (100%) | +0.8 |
| 8 | Poquoson High School Islanders | 2 | 2.46 school −0.11 | Chase Brewer / Barrett Wise 0.84 Grace Watlington / Aubrey Walton 0.80 Olivia Gilmore / Emery Hill 0.93 | 38% | 0–2 (0%) | −0.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Grafton High School Varsity | 3.08 | 6.08 | 2–0 | 1.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.2 | 38% |
| 8 | Poquoson High School Islanders | 2.46 | -0.54 | 0–2 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Grafton High School Varsity | Poquoson High School Islanders | 62% | |
| 35 | 35 | Grafton High School Varsity | Poquoson High School Islanders | 62% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Islanders | 2-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Comets | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Oaks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Comets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 1-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Saints | 2-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Seahorses 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Saints | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Comets | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Oaks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Islanders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 2-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Comets | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 20 | |
Saints | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 25 | |
Comets | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Saints | 2-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Comets | 2-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Islanders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 31 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Saints | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Commodores | 2-4-6 DNS,DNS,DNS | def. | |
Comets | 1-3-5 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 35 | |
Varsity | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Islanders | 2-3-6 |
| 36 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 39 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-3-6 |
| 40 | |
Islanders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Comets | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Grafton High School | Varsity | Blake Goodwin '23 Luke Manternach '22 Nick Fogt '23 |
Gracie Goodwin '25 Helen Schmuck '23 Elias Rooker '23 |
|
Poquoson High School | Islanders | Chase Brewer '22 Grace Watlington '22 Olivia Gilmore '23 |
Barrett Wise '23 Aubrey Walton '23 Emery Hill '23 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
