| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | 5–1 |
| 2 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | 4–2 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 3–3 |
| 4 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 2–4 |
| 5 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders | 1–5 |
| 6 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | 4–1 |
| 7 |  |
Grafton High School | Varsity | 4–1 |
| 8 |  |
Granby High School | Comets | 1–4 |
| 9 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 1–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,167 team race matches sailed before 2021-04-17, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 10 of 14 matches (71%) with a log-loss of 0.445 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.04 ± 0.63: a typical event, more orderly than 38% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | 5.40 | 7.31 | 5–1 | 3.6 | +1.92 | 1.4 | 18% |
| 2 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | 5.06 | 5.79 | 4–2 | 3.3 | +0.73 | 0.3 | 44% |
| 4 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 3.16 | 3.19 | 2–3 | 2.0 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 75% |
| 3 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 6.11 | 4.38 | 3–3 | 4.5 | −1.73 | 1.5 | 98% |
| 5 | Poquoson High School Islanders | 1.42 | -1.58 | 0–5 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Iaconis | Christchurch School | 1.18 | 3.10 | 5–1 | 3.6 | +1.92 | 1.4 | 18% |
| Carlos Bermudez De Castro Castro | Christchurch School | 2.45 | 4.36 | 5–1 | 3.6 | +1.92 | 1.4 | 18% |
| Walker Angus | Hampton Roads Academy | 0.39 | 0.42 | 2–3 | 2.0 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 75% |
| Maggie Campbell | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.61 | 1.01 | 2–1 | 2.2 | −0.60 | 0.1 | 86% |
| Alex Schuck | Norfolk Collegiate School | 2.41 | 0.68 | 3–3 | 4.5 | −1.73 | 1.5 | 98% |
| Ashlyn Wise | Poquoson High School | 0.09 | -2.91 | 0–5 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 31% | upset |
| 1 | 2 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | Poquoson High School Islanders | 94% | |
| 1 | 3 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 86% | |
| 1 | 4 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | 64% | |
| 1 | 5 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | Poquoson High School Islanders | 79% | |
| 1 | 6 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | 43% | upset |
| 1 | 7 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | Poquoson High School Islanders | 97% | |
| 1 | 8 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 82% | |
| 1 | 9 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Poquoson High School Islanders | 96% | |
| 1 | 10 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 92% | |
| 2 | 17 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | 56% | |
| 2 | 18 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 32% | upset |
| 2 | 19 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 36% | upset |
| 2 | 20 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | Poquoson High School Islanders | 80% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Oaks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Oaks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Comets | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Comets | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-3-6 |
| 16 | |
Commodores | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Comets | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Seahorses 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 1-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Navigators | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Islanders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Commodores | 2-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Comets | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 DSQ | def. | |
Comets | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | Aidan Iaconis '22 Carlos Bermudez De Castro Castro '22 Gannon Troutman '21 |
Marina Dryer '22 Reese Bragg '21 Sarah Ratcliffe '22 |
|
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | Jennifer Permenter '21 Rebecca Schill '23 Sean Trudell '24 |
Audrey Permenter '23 Henry Campbell '21 Emily Britt '23 Sabrina Casagrande '25 |
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | Alex Schuck '21 Harrison Thomson '22 Maggie Campbell '22 Robert Chase '22 |
Clara Murphy '23 Kiana Beachy '24 Brylie Schaubach '22 |
|
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | Pierce Brindley '24 Tyler Brown '23 Walker Angus '24 |
Nicholas Bielewicz '26 Jack Herritage '24 Mason Chapman Jr. '22 |
|
Poquoson High School | Islanders | Ashlyn Wise '21 Chase Brewer '22 Grace Watlington '22 Olivia Gilmore '23 |
Lauren Messerschmidt '21 Claire Dicarlo '22 Ava Michel '22 Emery Hill '23 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
