| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | 4–0 |
| 2 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders | 2–2 |
| 3 |  |
Peninsula Catholic High School | Knights | 2–2 |
| 4 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 2–2 |
| 5 |  |
Walsingham Academy | Trojans | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,748 team race matches sailed before 2019-09-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 6 of 10 matches (60%) with a log-loss of 0.576 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.74 ± 0.71: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 11% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kecoughtan High School | 2.38 | 5.38 | 4–0 | 2.3 | ≥+3.00 | 3.3 | 6% |
| 3 | Peninsula Catholic High School | 1.16 | 2.29 | 2–2 | 1.3 | +1.13 | 0.4 | 40% |
| 4 | Hampton Roads Academy | 2.68 | 1.60 | 2–2 | 2.6 | −1.08 | 0.4 | 91% |
| 2 | Poquoson High School | 3.84 | 1.49 | 2–2 | 3.3 | −2.34 | 1.8 | 99% |
| 5 | Walsingham Academy | -0.45 | -3.45 | 0–4 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Britt Cortina | Peninsula Catholic High School | 1.11 | 2.23 | 2–2 | 1.3 | +1.13 | 0.4 | 40% |
| Will Robertson | Peninsula Catholic High School | -0.32 | 0.81 | 2–2 | 1.3 | +1.13 | 0.4 | 40% |
| Disraeli Brooks | Peninsula Catholic High School | 0.46 | 1.58 | 2–2 | 1.3 | +1.13 | 0.4 | 40% |
| Niccolo Nodero | Hampton Roads Academy | 1.73 | 0.65 | 2–2 | 2.6 | −1.08 | 0.4 | 91% |
| Dax Dimuzio | Hampton Roads Academy | -0.42 | -1.49 | 2–2 | 2.6 | −1.08 | 0.4 | 91% |
| Jack Mckenna | Poquoson High School | 2.16 | -0.18 | 2–2 | 3.3 | −2.34 | 1.8 | 99% |
| Eleanor Patterson | Poquoson High School | 0.83 | -1.52 | 2–2 | 3.3 | −2.34 | 1.8 | 99% |
| Katherine Anna Hamner | Walsingham Academy | 0.36 | -2.63 | 0–4 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
| Riley Kelley | Walsingham Academy | -0.47 | -3.47 | 0–4 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Kecoughtan High School | Walsingham Academy | 88% | |
| 1 | 2 | Peninsula Catholic High School | Walsingham Academy | 72% | |
| 1 | 3 | Hampton Roads Academy | Walsingham Academy | 93% | |
| 1 | 4 | Poquoson High School | Walsingham Academy | 98% | |
| 1 | 5 | Kecoughtan High School | Peninsula Catholic High School | 71% | |
| 1 | 6 | Kecoughtan High School | Hampton Roads Academy | 44% | upset |
| 1 | 7 | Kecoughtan High School | Poquoson High School | 24% | upset |
| 1 | 8 | Peninsula Catholic High School | Hampton Roads Academy | 23% | upset |
| 1 | 9 | Poquoson High School | Peninsula Catholic High School | 90% | |
| 1 | 10 | Hampton Roads Academy | Poquoson High School | 36% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Warriors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-6 DNF |
| 2 | |
Knights | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Trojans | 2-4-6 DNF |
| 3 | |
Navigators | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-5-6 DNF |
| 4 | |
Islanders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-5-6 DNF |
| 5 | |
Warriors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 DNF |
| 6 | |
Warriors | 3-4-6 | def. | |
Navigators | 1-2-5 DSQ |
| 7 | |
Warriors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Knights | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Islanders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Knights | 2-5-6 DNF |
| 10 | |
Navigators | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | Megan Geith '20 Morgan Handly '21 Tyler Brown '23 |
Laura Rhodes '20 Ryan Nguyen '20 Gavin Miller '23 Mallory Soter '20 Morgan Riggins '20 Grace Bridges '20 |
|
Poquoson High School | Islanders | Chase Brewer '22 Eleanor Patterson '22 Jack Mckenna '20 |
Ashlyn Wise '21 Lauren Messerschmidt '21 Claire Dicarlo '22 Olivia Gilmore '23 Emmaline Dicarlo '20 Ava Michel '22 |
|
Peninsula Catholic High School | Knights | Britt Cortina '20 Disraeli Brooks '22 Will Robertson '21 |
Gracie Harris '20 Jacob Fugere '20 Katie Fremaux '20 |
|
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | Dax Dimuzio '21 Niccolo Nodero '20 Parker Moore '25 |
Samuel Strawn '23 Justus Kaminski '22 Kyle Rutherford '22 |
|
Walsingham Academy | Trojans | Joshua Morris '23 Katherine Anna Hamner '22 Mike Laccheo '23 Riley Kelley '20 |
Jack Pflika '22 Maddy O'Connell '20 Alex Yang '20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
