| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 2 | 4–0 |
| 2 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | 3–0 |
| 2 | |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 1 | 3–0 |
| 4 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders | 2–1 |
| 5 |  |
York High School | Varsity | 1–2 |
| 5 |  |
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | 1–2 |
| 7 |  |
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Saints | 1–3 |
| 8 |  |
Grafton High School | Varsity | 0–3 |
| 9 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,411 team race matches sailed before 2019-05-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 1 of 1 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.027 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 | 1 | 5.65 school −0.26 | Alex Schuck / Adam Elci 1.70 Harrison Thomson / Sam Beck 1.94 Unreported Sailor / Unreported Sailor 2.27 | 97% | 1–0 (100%) | +0.0 |
| 9 | Maury High School Commodores | 2 | 1.02 school +0.08 | Sean Trudell / Gabby Cloe Connor Mccarty / Henry Allard Unreported Sailor / Unreported Sailor 0.09 | 3% | 0–1 (0%) | −0.0 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 | 5.65 | 8.65 | 1–0 | 1.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 97% |
| 9 | Maury High School Commodores | 1.02 | -1.98 | 0–1 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 | Maury High School Commodores | 97% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 2 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-5 DNF | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 3 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 4 | |
Islanders | 1-3-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 DNS |
| 5 | |
Warriors | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 6 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 7 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 8 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 9 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 10 | |
Saints | 1-3-6 DNS | def. | |
Islanders | 2-4-5 DNS |
| 11 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-3-5 DNS | def. | |
Warriors | 2-4-6 DNS |
| 12 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 13 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 14 | |
Islanders | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 15 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-6 DNS |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 2 | Alex Schuck '21 Harrison Thomson '22 Unreported Sailor '15 |
Adam Elci '22 Sam Beck '21 Unreported Sailor '19 |
|
Maury High School | Commodores | Connor Mccarty '21 Sean Trudell '24 Unreported Sailor '19 |
Henry Allard '24 Gabby Cloe '24 Unreported Sailor '15 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
