| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 1 | 3–1 |
| 2 | |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 2 | 2–1 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 2 | 1–1 |
| 4 | |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 1 | 1–2 |
| 5 |  |
Catholic High School | Crusaders | 0–2 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,758 team race matches sailed before 2019-09-19, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 2 of 3 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.688 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | 1 | 5.17 school −0.20 | Alex Schuck / Adam Elci 2.07 Robert Chase / Jon Krueger 1.23 Harrison Thomson / Sam Beck 2.06 | 52% | 2–1 (67%) | +0.4 |
| 3 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 | 2 | 5.08 | Henry Allgeier / Ali Zaidi 2.19 Michael Hostutler / Audrey Permenter 1.38 Charlie Britt / Elaina Tenfelde 1.47 | 48% | 1–2 (33%) | −0.4 |
| 4 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | 2 | 5.08 | Henry Allgeier / Ali Zaidi 2.19 Michael Hostutler / Audrey Permenter 1.38 Charlie Britt / Elaina Tenfelde 1.47 | 48% | 1–2 (33%) | −0.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | 5.17 | 5.97 | 2–1 | 1.6 | +0.79 | 0.2 | 53% |
| 4 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | 5.08 | 4.28 | 1–2 | 1.4 | −0.79 | 0.2 | 86% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Schuck | Norfolk Collegiate School | 2.07 | 2.86 | 2–1 | 1.6 | +0.79 | 0.2 | 53% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | 48% | upset |
| 3 | 3 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | 52% | |
| 7 | 7 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | 51% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Crusaders | 2-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Crusaders | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 1 | Alex Schuck '21 Harrison Thomson '22 Robert Chase '22 |
Adam Elci '22 Sam Beck '21 Jon Krueger '20 |
|
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 1 | Charlie Britt '21 Henry Allgeier '23 Michael Hostutler '20 |
Elaina Tenfelde '20 Ali Zaidi '20 Audrey Permenter '23 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
