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VISA Mathews Grafton Tabb Fleet Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 9 9 18
2 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 20 15 35
3 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 29 27 56
4 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 17 52 69
5 York High School York High School Varsity 43 42 85
6 Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 48 39 87
7 Mathews High School Mathews High School Blue Devils 37 73 110
8 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 64 67 131
9 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 86 MRP 66 MRP 152 MRP
10 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 85 MRP 71 MRP 156 MRP
11 Granby High School Granby High School Comets 84 MRP 76 MRP 160 MRP
12 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 91 91 182
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 9 Parker Purrington '19
Ray Domena '19
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 6 3 2 2 1 1 2 17 Jack Mckenna '20 [1-7]
Emmaline Dicarlo '20 [1-4]
Mollypaige Deans '19 [5-7]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 3 20 Alex Schuck '21
Adam Elci '22
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 3 5 4 5 3 5 4 29 Cole Handly '19 [1-7]
Megan Geith '20 [1-2]
Laura Rhodes '20 [3-4]
Morgan Handly '21 [5-7]
Mathews High School Mathews High School Blue Devils 4 8 6 4 5 4 6 37 Andrew Ciszewski '21 [1-7]
Quinton Dixon '20 [1]
Henry Ciszewski '24 [2-7]
York High School York High School Varsity 5 4 7 8 6 8 5 43 Justin Kelly '25
Charlie Gibson '20
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 7 6 8 7 7 6 7 48 David Hanna '21 [1-7]
Lenore Dougherty '20 [1-2, 5-7]
Luke Manternach '22 [3-4]
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 9 7 5 11 11 11 10 64 Ricky Cordner '19 [1-4]
Ramazani Clement '23 [5-7]
Ramazani Clement '23 [1-2]
Tori Dixon '20 [3-7]
Granby High School Granby High School Comets 10 11 9 6 9 10 9 84 MRP Huaqiu "Cho-Cho" Williams '22
Henry Allard '24
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 11 9 10 9 8 7 11 85 MRP Emily Britt '23 [1-7]
Margaret Wyatt '25 [1-4]
Michael Polsinelli '23 [5-7]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 8 10 11 10 10 9 8 86 MRP Connor Mccarty '21
Jack Carson '22
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 91 No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 9 Chris Robertson '19
Matt Wright '19
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 15 Harrison Thomson '22
Sam Beck '21
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 3 5 4 6 1 5 3 27 Tyler Brown '23 [1-7]
Maggie Leddy '20 [1-2]
Charlotte Pirnik '20 [3-7]
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 11 8 3 4 4 3 6 39 Cody Carnes '21
Henry Ciszewski '24
York High School York High School Varsity 7 7 5 2 5 8 8 42 Ethan White '21 [1-7]
Hunter Bryson '22 [1-2]
Reilly Warren '21 [3-4]
Luke Manternach '22 [5-7]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 5 4 8 8 9 9 9 52 Chase Brewer '22 [1-4]
Olivia Gilmore '23 [5-7]
Claire Dicarlo '22 [1-2]
Ashlyn Wise '21 [3-4]
Emery Hill '23 [5-7]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 9 6 7 5 6 6 7 66 MRP Lane Kilduff '25
Gabby Cloe '24
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 4 3 11 10 DSQ DSQ DSQ 67 Robert Chase '22 [1-4]
Ricky Cordner '19 [5-7]
Barrett Wise '23 [1-4]
Elias Rooker '23 [5-7]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 10 9 6 7 7 7 5 71 MRP Emily Britt '23 [1-7]
Margaret Wyatt '25 [1-4]
Michael Polsinelli '23 [5-7]
Mathews High School Mathews High School Blue Devils 6 10 9 9 DSQ DSQ DSQ 73 Alaya Mccurry '21 [1-7]
Quinton Dixon '20 [1-4]
Andrew Ciszewski '21 [5-7]
Granby High School Granby High School Comets 8 11 10 11 8 4 4 76 MRP Henry Allard '24 [1-7]
Huaqiu "Cho-Cho" Williams '22 [1-4]
Margaret Wyatt '25 [5-7]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 91 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (29 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity4466141416
Granby High SchoolGranby High School Comets11335513
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors22446614
Mathews High SchoolMathews High School Blue Devils3355131315
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 1551313151517
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 266141416161
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs18181818181818
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 11313151517172
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 214141616113
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms15151717224
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders161611335
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity171722446

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity551313151517
Granby High SchoolGranby High School Comets22446614
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors3355131315
Mathews High SchoolMathews High School Blue Devils4466141416
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 166141416161
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 21313151517172
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs18181818181818
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 114141616113
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 215151717224
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms161611335
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders171722446
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity11335513
School / Team SkipperCrew
Grafton High School Grafton High School David Hanna '21 [1-7] Lenore Dougherty '20 [1-2, 5-7]
Luke Manternach '22 [3-4]
Varsity Cody Carnes '21 Henry Ciszewski '24
Granby High School Granby High School Huaqiu "Cho-Cho" Williams '22 Henry Allard '24
Comets Henry Allard '24 [1-7] Huaqiu "Cho-Cho" Williams '22 [1-4]
Margaret Wyatt '25 [5-7]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Cole Handly '19 [1-7] Megan Geith '20 [1-2]
Laura Rhodes '20 [3-4]
Morgan Handly '21 [5-7]
Warriors Tyler Brown '23 [1-7] Maggie Leddy '20 [1-2]
Charlotte Pirnik '20 [3-7]
Mathews High School Mathews High School Andrew Ciszewski '21 [1-7] Quinton Dixon '20 [1]
Henry Ciszewski '24 [2-7]
Blue Devils Alaya Mccurry '21 [1-7] Quinton Dixon '20 [1-4]
Andrew Ciszewski '21 [5-7]
Maury High School Maury High School Connor Mccarty '21 Jack Carson '22
Commodores 1 Lane Kilduff '25 Gabby Cloe '24
Maury High School Maury High School Emily Britt '23 [1-7] Margaret Wyatt '25 [1-4]
Michael Polsinelli '23 [5-7]
Commodores 2 Emily Britt '23 [1-7] Margaret Wyatt '25 [1-4]
Michael Polsinelli '23 [5-7]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy No Show No Show
Bulldogs No Show No Show
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Parker Purrington '19 Ray Domena '19
Oaks 1 Chris Robertson '19 Matt Wright '19
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Alex Schuck '21 Adam Elci '22
Oaks 2 Harrison Thomson '22 Sam Beck '21
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Ricky Cordner '19 [1-4]
Ramazani Clement '23 [5-7]		 Ramazani Clement '23 [1-2]
Tori Dixon '20 [3-7]
Phantoms Robert Chase '22 [1-4]
Ricky Cordner '19 [5-7]		 Barrett Wise '23 [1-4]
Elias Rooker '23 [5-7]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Jack Mckenna '20 [1-7] Emmaline Dicarlo '20 [1-4]
Mollypaige Deans '19 [5-7]
Islanders Chase Brewer '22 [1-4]
Olivia Gilmore '23 [5-7]		 Claire Dicarlo '22 [1-2]
Ashlyn Wise '21 [3-4]
Emery Hill '23 [5-7]
York High School York High School Justin Kelly '25 Charlie Gibson '20
Varsity Ethan White '21 [1-7] Hunter Bryson '22 [1-2]
Reilly Warren '21 [3-4]
Luke Manternach '22 [5-7]

Conditions — 05/04/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1010.2 hPa

Temperature

80°F
↑ 84°F   ↓ 71°F
Feels like 84°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.4 kn
avg  ·  max 8.5 kn
Gusts to 17.3 kn
From WSW (241°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover72% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1010.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.19 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled days at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →