VISA HCS/PC Regatta

HostYouth Sailing Virginia
Date10/06/2018
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	14	30	44
2	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	17	29	46
3	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 1	47	21	68
4	Poquoson High School	Islanders	15	56	71
5	Kecoughtan High School	Warriors	56	20	76
6	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 3	44	39	83
7	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 2	48	52	100
8	Hampton High School	Crabbers	67	42	109
9	Tabb High School	Varsity	66	62	128
10	Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	60	80	140
11	Peninsula Catholic High School	Knights	65	86	151
12	Phoebus High School	Phantoms	85	81	166
13	York High School	Varsity	88	83	171
14	Frank W. Cox High School	Falcons	104	68	172
15	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	79	100	179
16	Walsingham Academy	Trojans	90	103	193

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	1	1	1	1	3	4	3	14	Parker Purrington '19 Ray Domena '19
Poquoson High School	Islanders	RDG	5	2	2	2	1	1	15	Jack Mckenna '20 Emmaline Dicarlo '20
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	2	3	3	3	1	3	2	17	Chris Robertson '19 Sam Beck '21
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 3	5	4	8	8	10	2	7	44	Harrison Thomson '22 Jon Krueger '20
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 1	3	9	5	9	8	8	5	47	Michael Hostutler '20 Audrey Permenter '23
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 2	7	7	6	6	5	5	12	48	Maiya Foleck '19 Ali Zaidi '20
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors	8	6	9	4	12	13	4	56	Cole Handly '19 [1-7] Megan Geith '20 [1-4, 7] Mallory Soter '20 [5-6]
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	4	2	10	10	13	12	9	60	Alex Kitay '19 Scott Spencer '19
Peninsula Catholic High School	Knights	6	8	7	7	7	14	16	65	Dan Whelan '20 Katie Fremaux '20
Tabb High School	Varsity	10	11	16	13	4	6	6	66	David Hanna '21 [1-4] Madeline Amthor '22 [5-7] Christopher Raab '20 [1-4] Lenore Dougherty '20 [5-7]
Hampton High School	Crabbers	15	10	4	11	6	10	11	67	Gavin Smith '21 Tyson Denton '21
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	12	12	15	12	11	9	8	79	Jack Butler '23 [1-7] Hunter Sznoluch '19 [1-2, 5-7] Adam Mcaninley '23 [3-4]
Phoebus High School	Phantoms	16	13	11	15	9	11	10	85	Ryan Nguyen '20 [1-4] Morgan Handly '21 [5-7] David Michael Jennings '14 [1-4] Ryan Nguyen '20 [5-7]
York High School	Varsity	13	14	14	5	14	15	13	88	Justin Kelly '25 [1-2] Ethan White '21 [3-7] Ethan White '21 [1-2] Justin Kelly '25 [3-4] Jude Link '22 [5-7]
Walsingham Academy	Trojans	11	15	12	16	15	7	14	90	Ronan Donovan '19 Maddy O'Connell '20
Frank W. Cox High School	Falcons	14	16	13	14	16	16	15	104	Ryan Allman '21 [1-7] Erin Allman '21 [1-4] Joshua Childers '21 [5-7]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors	4	4	3	4	2	1	2	20	Sam Brady '19 Laura Rhodes '20
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 1	2	1	1	10	1	2	4	21	Charlie Britt '21 Cameron Lloyd '19
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	7	2	2	3	8	4	3	29	Alex Schuck '21 Adam Elci '22
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	1	3	5	1	5	3	12	30	Maggie Campbell '22 Clare Harbin '19
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 3	10	6	4	2	4	5	8	39	Robert Chase '22 Tova Rosenberg '21
Hampton High School	Crabbers	5	9	8	9	3	7	1	42	Tyler Brown '23 Gavin Miller '23
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 2	6	5	6	7	11	6	11	52	Jennifer Permenter '21 Paul Trudell '22
Poquoson High School	Islanders	12	7	7	5	9	10	6	56	Charlotte Patterson '20 Eleanor Patterson '22
Tabb High School	Varsity	3	8	15	13	6	12	5	62	Madeline Amthor '22 [1-2] Elias Rooker '23 [3-4] David Hanna '21 [5-7] Zack George '19 [1-2] Reilly Warren '21 [3-4] Christopher Raab '20 [5-7]
Frank W. Cox High School	Falcons	8	10	9	8	12	8	13	68	Konrad Freischlag '20 [1-7] Joshua Childers '21 [1-4] Erin Allman '21 [5-7]
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	9	11	10	6	14	14	16	80	Dax Dimuzio '21 [1-2] Connor Duggan '19 [3-7] Krysta Rutherford '19 [1-4] Nathan Hoege '19 [5-7]
Phoebus High School	Phantoms	15	15	13	11	7	11	9	81	Alexandra Smith '23 [1-2, 7] Tori Dixon '20 [3-6] Ramazani Clement '23 [1-2, 7]
York High School	Varsity	11	12	12	15	13	13	7	83	Charlie Gibson '20 [1-2] Hunter Bryson '22 [3-4] Justin Kelly '25 [5-7] Hunter Bryson '22 [1-2] Charlie Gibson '20 [3-7]
Peninsula Catholic High School	Knights	13	13	11	14	16	9	10	86	Will Robertson '21 Jacob Fugere '20
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	14	14	14	12	15	16	15	100	Carter Lydon '21 [1-7] Andy Beute '23 [1-4] Morgan Jenkins '24 [5-7]
Walsingham Academy	Trojans	16	16	16	16	10	15	14	103	Riley Kelley '20 Sidney Woloszynowski '20

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.120+0.12

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (48 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
Frank W. Cox High School Falcons	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
Hampton High School Crabbers	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Kecoughtan High School Warriors	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Peninsula Catholic High School Knights	11	11	13	13	15	15	1
Phoebus High School Phantoms	12	12	14	14	16	16	2
Poquoson High School Islanders	13	13	15	15	1	1	3
Tabb High School Varsity	14	14	16	16	2	2	4
Walsingham Academy Trojans	15	15	1	1	3	3	5
York High School Varsity	16	16	2	2	4	4	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
Frank W. Cox High School Falcons	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Hampton High School Crabbers	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Kecoughtan High School Warriors	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3	11	11	13	13	15	15	1
Peninsula Catholic High School Knights	12	12	14	14	16	16	2
Phoebus High School Phantoms	13	13	15	15	1	1	3
Poquoson High School Islanders	14	14	16	16	2	2	4
Tabb High School Varsity	15	15	1	1	3	3	5
Walsingham Academy Trojans	16	16	2	2	4	4	6
York High School Varsity	1	1	3	3	5	5	7

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Frank W. Cox High School	Ryan Allman '21 [1-7]	Erin Allman '21 [1-4] Joshua Childers '21 [5-7]
Falcons	Konrad Freischlag '20 [1-7]	Joshua Childers '21 [1-4] Erin Allman '21 [5-7]
Hampton High School	Gavin Smith '21	Tyson Denton '21
Crabbers	Tyler Brown '23	Gavin Miller '23
Hampton Roads Academy	Alex Kitay '19	Scott Spencer '19
Navigators	Dax Dimuzio '21 [1-2] Connor Duggan '19 [3-7]	Krysta Rutherford '19 [1-4] Nathan Hoege '19 [5-7]
Kecoughtan High School	Cole Handly '19 [1-7]	Megan Geith '20 [1-4, 7] Mallory Soter '20 [5-6]
Warriors	Sam Brady '19	Laura Rhodes '20
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Jack Butler '23 [1-7]	Hunter Sznoluch '19 [1-2, 5-7] Adam Mcaninley '23 [3-4]
Saints	Carter Lydon '21 [1-7]	Andy Beute '23 [1-4] Morgan Jenkins '24 [5-7]
Norfolk Academy	Michael Hostutler '20	Audrey Permenter '23
Bulldogs 1	Charlie Britt '21	Cameron Lloyd '19
Norfolk Academy	Maiya Foleck '19	Ali Zaidi '20
Bulldogs 2	Jennifer Permenter '21	Paul Trudell '22
Norfolk Collegiate School	Parker Purrington '19	Ray Domena '19
Oaks 1	Maggie Campbell '22	Clare Harbin '19
Norfolk Collegiate School	Chris Robertson '19	Sam Beck '21
Oaks 2	Alex Schuck '21	Adam Elci '22
Norfolk Collegiate School	Harrison Thomson '22	Jon Krueger '20
Oaks 3	Robert Chase '22	Tova Rosenberg '21
Peninsula Catholic High School	Dan Whelan '20	Katie Fremaux '20
Knights	Will Robertson '21	Jacob Fugere '20
Phoebus High School	Ryan Nguyen '20 [1-4] Morgan Handly '21 [5-7]	David Michael Jennings '14 [1-4] Ryan Nguyen '20 [5-7]
Phantoms	Alexandra Smith '23 [1-2, 7] Tori Dixon '20 [3-6]	Ramazani Clement '23 [1-2, 7]
Poquoson High School	Jack Mckenna '20	Emmaline Dicarlo '20
Islanders	Charlotte Patterson '20	Eleanor Patterson '22
Tabb High School	David Hanna '21 [1-4] Madeline Amthor '22 [5-7]	Christopher Raab '20 [1-4] Lenore Dougherty '20 [5-7]
Varsity	Madeline Amthor '22 [1-2] Elias Rooker '23 [3-4] David Hanna '21 [5-7]	Zack George '19 [1-2] Reilly Warren '21 [3-4] Christopher Raab '20 [5-7]
Walsingham Academy	Ronan Donovan '19	Maddy O'Connell '20
Trojans	Riley Kelley '20	Sidney Woloszynowski '20
York High School	Justin Kelly '25 [1-2] Ethan White '21 [3-7]	Ethan White '21 [1-2] Justin Kelly '25 [3-4] Jude Link '22 [5-7]
Varsity	Charlie Gibson '20 [1-2] Hunter Bryson '22 [3-4] Justin Kelly '25 [5-7]	Hunter Bryson '22 [1-2] Charlie Gibson '20 [3-7]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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VISA HCS/PC Regatta

Division A

Division B

From the notes