VISA York Fleet Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 11 11 22
2 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 31 24 55
3 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 52 65 117
4 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 61 60 121
5 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 73 53 126
6 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 108 35 143
7 York High School York High School Varsity 68 90 158
8 Mathews High School Mathews High School Blue Devils 73 86 159
9 Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 80 82 162
10 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 49 121 170
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 Boyd Bragg '19 [1-11]
Jeff Elkin '20 [1-6]
Kennedy Jones '20 [7-8]
Reese Bragg '21 [9-11]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 2 2 2 2 2 5 2 3 6 3 2 31 Parker Purrington '19
Ray Domena '19
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 4 4 5 8 5 2 6 2 5 4 4 49 John Vail '20 [1-11]
Kennedy Jones '20 [1-6, 9-11]
Jeff Elkin '20 [7-8]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 6 5 4 4 3 4 8 5 3 7 3 52 Jack Mckenna '20
Emmaline Dicarlo '20
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 5 3 3 5 8 7 3 10 7 2 8 61 Kyle Pfrang '22
Henry Ciszewski '24
York High School York High School Varsity 3 6 7 3 4 8 4 8 9 6 10 68 Brian Fox '19
Ethan White '21
Mathews High School Mathews High School Blue Devils 9 9 9 7 6 6 5 7 4 5 6 73 Andrew Ciszewski '21
David Mattox '21
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 10 7 8 9 9 3 7 4 2 9 5 73 Cole Handly '19 [1-11]
Maggie Leddy '20 [1]
Morgan Handly '21 [2-4]
Ryan Nguyen '20 [5-11]
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 8 8 6 6 7 9 BKD 6 8 8 7 80 Madeline Amthor '22
Lenore Dougherty '20
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 7 DNS DNS 10 10 10 DNS 9 10 10 9 108 Alex Schuck '21 [1-5]
Robert Chase '22 [6-11]
Jon Krueger '20 [1-5]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 Nathan Smith '20
Benton Amthor '19
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 24 Chris Robertson '19
Sam Beck '21
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 3 4 2 2 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 35 Harrison Thomson '22 [1-3, 8-11]
Henry Allgeier '23 [4-7]
Ali Zaidi '20 [1-3, 8-11]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 5 3 5 4 6 7 3 4 6 5 5 53 Tyler Brown '22 [1-11]
Charlotte Pirnik '20 [1-5]
Tori Dixon '20 [6-8]
Morgan Riggins '20 [9-11]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 7 5 4 5 5 3 7 5 9 4 6 60 Charlotte Patterson '20 [1-8, 10-11]
Olivia Gilmore '23 [9]
Sam Palmertree '21 [1-8]
Barrett Wise '23 [9-11]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 6 6 6 6 3 5 5 6 7 8 7 65 Chase Brewer '22
Claire Dicarlo '22
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity DNF DNS 7 7 7 8 9 8 4 6 4 82 Christopher Raab '20 [1-6]
David Hanna '21 [7-11]
Luke Manternach '22 [1-6]
Christopher Raab '20 [7-11]
Mathews High School Mathews High School Blue Devils DNF 8 8 8 8 6 6 9 5 9 8 86 Dylan White '22 [1-5, 10]
Alaya Mccurry '21 [6-9, 11]
Quinton Dixon '20 [1-5, 10]
Cody Carnes '21 [6-9, 11]
York High School York High School Varsity 4 7 DNS DNS 9 9 8 7 8 7 9 90 Charlie Gibson '20 [1-11]
Hunter Bryson '22 [1-5]
Jude Link '22 [6-11]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 121 No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 111111111111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 21111111111111111111111
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity22222222222
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors33333333333
Mathews High SchoolMathews High School Blue Devils99999999999
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints44444444444
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 155555555555
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 266666666666
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders88888888888
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity1010101010101010101010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 111111111111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 21111111111111111111111
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity22222222222
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors33333333333
Mathews High SchoolMathews High School Blue Devils99999999999
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints44444444444
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 155555555555
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 266666666666
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders88888888888
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity1010101010101010101010
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School Boyd Bragg '19 [1-11] Jeff Elkin '20 [1-6]
Kennedy Jones '20 [7-8]
Reese Bragg '21 [9-11]
Seahorses 1 Nathan Smith '20 Benton Amthor '19
Christchurch School Christchurch School John Vail '20 [1-11] Kennedy Jones '20 [1-6, 9-11]
Jeff Elkin '20 [7-8]
Seahorses 2 No Show
Grafton High School Grafton High School Madeline Amthor '22 Lenore Dougherty '20
Varsity Christopher Raab '20 [1-6]
David Hanna '21 [7-11]
Luke Manternach '22 [1-6]
Christopher Raab '20 [7-11]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Cole Handly '19 [1-11] Maggie Leddy '20 [1]
Morgan Handly '21 [2-4]
Ryan Nguyen '20 [5-11]
Warriors Tyler Brown '22 [1-11] Charlotte Pirnik '20 [1-5]
Tori Dixon '20 [6-8]
Morgan Riggins '20 [9-11]
Mathews High School Mathews High School Andrew Ciszewski '21 David Mattox '21
Blue Devils Dylan White '22 [1-5, 10]
Alaya Mccurry '21 [6-9, 11]
Quinton Dixon '20 [1-5, 10]
Cody Carnes '21 [6-9, 11]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Kyle Pfrang '22 Henry Ciszewski '24
Saints Charlotte Patterson '20 [1-8, 10-11]
Olivia Gilmore '23 [9]
Sam Palmertree '21 [1-8]
Barrett Wise '23 [9-11]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Parker Purrington '19 Ray Domena '19
Oaks 1 Chris Robertson '19 Sam Beck '21
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Alex Schuck '21 [1-5]
Robert Chase '22 [6-11]
Jon Krueger '20 [1-5]
Oaks 2 Harrison Thomson '22 [1-3, 8-11]
Henry Allgeier '23 [4-7]
Ali Zaidi '20 [1-3, 8-11]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Jack Mckenna '20 Emmaline Dicarlo '20
Islanders Chase Brewer '22 Claire Dicarlo '22
York High School York High School Brian Fox '19 Ethan White '21
Varsity Charlie Gibson '20 [1-11] Hunter Bryson '22 [1-5]
Jude Link '22 [6-11]

Conditions — 03/16/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 35%  ·  Pressure 1020.0 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 46°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.1 kn
avg  ·  max 11.6 kn
Gusts to 26.4 kn
From NW (305°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover39% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity35% Pressure1020.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Christchurch School: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.03 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.03
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.25 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christchurch School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (25 labelled days at Christchurch School).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →