VISA NSA Fleet Race Regatta (Team 2)

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 9 6 15
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 25 21 46
3 York High School York High School Varsity 31 29 60
4 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 13 52 65
5 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 31 40 71
6 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 49 26 75
7 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 47 30 77
8 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 38 42 80
9 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 60 39 99
10 Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders 1 42 60 102
11 Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders 2 58 57 115
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 3 1 1 2 1 9 Erik Demario '18
Reese Bragg '21
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 3 2 2 2 1 3 13 Kyle Pfrang '22
T. J. Argust '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 2 1 3 8 4 7 25 Larkin Rae '18
Clare Elden Gaule '21
York High School York High School Varsity 5 6 6 3 6 5 31 Brian Fox '19
Hunter Bryson '22
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 6 5 5 4 9 2 31 Maiya Foleck '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Charlie Britt '21 [3-4]
Elaina Tenfelde '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Henry Campbell '21 [3-4]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 9 9 7 6 3 4 38 David Hanna '21
Hanna Oates '19
Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders 1 DSQ 8 4 5 5 8 42 Jake Kiggans '19
Mark Ostrowski '19
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 8 4 9 7 10 9 47 Olivia Basco '19 [1-4]
Scott Spencer '19 [5-6]
Larry Rogers '19 [1-4]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 4 7 8 DNF DSQ 6 49 Alex Schuck '21
Jon Krueger '20
Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders 2 7 DSQ 11 9 7 DNF 58 Josh Kiggans '21
Oliver Hudson '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 10 10 10 DNS 8 10 60 Charlie Li '20
Mary Esten Brown '21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 Louie Lafevre '17
Sally Johnson '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 2 4 8 3 2 2 21 Egecan Tezcan '19
Kennedy Jones '20
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 5 3 10 2 3 3 26 Maggie Campbell '22
Jenks Britt '20
York High School York High School Varsity 7 2 2 5 7 6 29 Kai Vylet '19
Lenore Dougherty '20
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 8 5 4 4 5 4 30 Krysta Rutherford '19 [1-4]
Dax Dimuzio '21 [5-6]
Caden Sutton '21 [1-4]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 3 6 5 7 9 9 39 Holden Howle '21
Peyton Smith '21
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 6 7 6 DNF 4 5 40 Lydia Sweeney '21 [1-6]
Gabby Foley '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Blake Brown '21 [3-4]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 9 11 3 6 6 7 42 Chase Brewer '22
Eli Teague '19
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 10 9 7 8 10 8 52 Carter Lydon '21
Emily Argust '20
Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders 2 11 10 9 9 8 10 57 Maggie Mcdonald '19
Tyler Kurtz '20
Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders 1 4 8 DSQ DSQ DNS DNS 60 Matt Lassalle '18 [1-2]
Josh Kiggans '21 [3-6]
Gustavo Morales '20 [1-2]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Catholic High SchoolCatholic High School Crusaders 1113355
Catholic High SchoolCatholic High School Crusaders 2224466
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1335577
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2446688
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 3557799
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators66881010
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints77991111
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs88101011
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks99111122
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders10101133
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity11112244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Catholic High SchoolCatholic High School Crusaders 1224466
Catholic High SchoolCatholic High School Crusaders 2335577
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1446688
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2557799
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 366881010
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators77991111
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints88101011
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs99111122
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks10101133
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders11112244
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity113355

Conditions — 09/09/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 58%  ·  Pressure 1025.3 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.5 kn
avg  ·  max 7.6 kn
Gusts to 18.3 kn
From N (2°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover16% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1025.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Christchurch School: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.23
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.10 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christchurch School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (25 labelled days at Christchurch School).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →