VISA Poquoson Fleet Race Regatta

HostYouth Sailing Virginia
Date05/22/2021
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	10	9	19
2	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	30	25	55
3	Kecoughtan High School	Warriors	39	36	75
4	Granby High School	Comets	45	50	95
5	Grafton High School	Varsity	49	53	102
6	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	25	85	110
7	Maury High School	Commodores	67	57	124
8	Poquoson High School	Islanders 1	67	60	127
9	The Hague School	The Tritons	90	41	131
10	Poquoson High School	Islanders 2	80	53	133
11	York High School	Varsity	51	89	140
12	Poquoson High School	Islanders 3	72	71	143

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	1	1	3	1	1	1	1	1	10	Maggie Campbell '22 Clara Murphy '23
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	2	3	4	6	3	2	2	3	25	Jennifer Permenter '21 Sabrina Casagrande '25
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	4	2	1	4	2	5	4	8	30	Alex Schuck '21 [1-6] Kiana Beachy '24 [7-8] Adam Elci '22 [1-2, 5-6] Sam Beck '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors	3	8	2	2	7	8	5	4	39	Tyler Brown '23 Barrett Wise '23
Granby High School	Comets	6	7	7	5	6	3	6	5	45	Henry Allard '23 Hannah Bonheur '24
Grafton High School	Varsity	5	4	8	9	4	6	7	6	49	Blake Goodwin '23 Nathan Shaw '26
York High School	Varsity	7	5	9	8	OCS	4	3	2	51	Justin Kelly '25 Savanah Van Cleave '25
Maury High School	Commodores	8	11	11	3	10	7	8	9	67	Emily Priest '25 Reagan Evans '23
Poquoson High School	Islanders 1	11	9	6	7	5	11	11	7	67	Chase Brewer '22 Emery Hill '23
Poquoson High School	Islanders 3	12	6	5	12	9	9	9	10	72	Aubrey Walton '23 [1-8] Ella Larocco '22 [1-6] Tiernan Boyd '23 [7-8]
Poquoson High School	Islanders 2	10	10	10	10	8	10	10	12	80	Ashlyn Wise '21 Lauren Messerschmidt '21
The Hague School	The Tritons	9	12	12	11	11	12	12	11	90	Nicholas Davis '24 [1-8] Ava Morgan '25 [1-2] Gianna Dunn '23 [3-8]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	9	Robert Chase '22 Brylie Schaubach '22
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	5	3	5	4	1	2	2	3	25	Maddie Murphy '25 [1-8] Kiana Beachy '24 [1-6] Adam Elci '22 [7-8]
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors	2	4	3	2	7	6	7	5	36	Morgan Handly '21 Jack Herritage '24
The Hague School	The Tritons	8	2	9	3	5	3	9	2	41	Charlotte Stillman '23 Ava Morgan '25
Granby High School	Comets	6	5	DSQ	9	6	4	3	4	50	Joe Murphy '24 Huaqiu "Cho-Cho" Williams '22
Grafton High School	Varsity	4	6	7	5	9	7	8	7	53	Luke Manternach '22 Gracie Goodwin '25
Poquoson High School	Islanders 2	9	11	4	6	4	5	4	10	53	Cam Brewer '24 [1-8] Mackenzie Haynes '24 [1-6] Sam Palmertree '21 [7-8]
Maury High School	Commodores	10	7	2	8	11	8	5	6	57	Connor Mccarty '21 Gabby Cloe '24
Poquoson High School	Islanders 1	11	8	6	7	3	11	6	8	60	Grace Watlington '22 Ava Michel '22
Poquoson High School	Islanders 3	3	9	8	12	10	10	10	9	71	Evan Harris '24 [1-8] Addison Kuczynski '23 [1-6] Hunter Walton '25 [7-8]
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	7	10	DSQ	10	8	DSQ	DSQ	11	85	Emily Britt '23 [1-8] Henry Campbell '21 [1-2, 6] Eliana Jin '26 [3-5, 7-8]
York High School	Varsity	12	12	10	11	12	9	11	12	89	Nick Fogt '23 Helen Schmuck '23

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.120+0.12

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (48 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Grafton High School Varsity	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Granby High School Comets	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Kecoughtan High School Warriors	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Maury High School Commodores	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Poquoson High School Islanders 1	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Poquoson High School Islanders 2	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Poquoson High School Islanders 3	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18
The Hague School The Tritons	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
York High School Varsity	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Grafton High School Varsity	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Granby High School Comets	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Kecoughtan High School Warriors	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Maury High School Commodores	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Poquoson High School Islanders 1	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Poquoson High School Islanders 2	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Poquoson High School Islanders 3	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18
The Hague School The Tritons	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
York High School Varsity	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Grafton High School	Blake Goodwin '23	Nathan Shaw '26
Varsity	Luke Manternach '22	Gracie Goodwin '25
Granby High School	Henry Allard '23	Hannah Bonheur '24
Comets	Joe Murphy '24	Huaqiu "Cho-Cho" Williams '22
Kecoughtan High School	Tyler Brown '23	Barrett Wise '23
Warriors	Morgan Handly '21	Jack Herritage '24
Maury High School	Emily Priest '25	Reagan Evans '23
Commodores	Connor Mccarty '21	Gabby Cloe '24
Norfolk Academy	Jennifer Permenter '21	Sabrina Casagrande '25
Bulldogs	Emily Britt '23 [1-8]	Henry Campbell '21 [1-2, 6] Eliana Jin '26 [3-5, 7-8]
Norfolk Collegiate School	Maggie Campbell '22	Clara Murphy '23
Oaks 1	Robert Chase '22	Brylie Schaubach '22
Norfolk Collegiate School	Alex Schuck '21 [1-6] Kiana Beachy '24 [7-8]	Adam Elci '22 [1-2, 5-6] Sam Beck '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Oaks 2	Maddie Murphy '25 [1-8]	Kiana Beachy '24 [1-6] Adam Elci '22 [7-8]
Poquoson High School	Chase Brewer '22	Emery Hill '23
Islanders 1	Grace Watlington '22	Ava Michel '22
Poquoson High School	Ashlyn Wise '21	Lauren Messerschmidt '21
Islanders 2	Cam Brewer '24 [1-8]	Mackenzie Haynes '24 [1-6] Sam Palmertree '21 [7-8]
Poquoson High School	Aubrey Walton '23 [1-8]	Ella Larocco '22 [1-6] Tiernan Boyd '23 [7-8]
Islanders 3	Evan Harris '24 [1-8]	Addison Kuczynski '23 [1-6] Hunter Walton '25 [7-8]
The Hague School	Nicholas Davis '24 [1-8]	Ava Morgan '25 [1-2] Gianna Dunn '23 [3-8]
The Tritons	Charlotte Stillman '23	Ava Morgan '25
York High School	Justin Kelly '25	Savanah Van Cleave '25
Varsity	Nick Fogt '23	Helen Schmuck '23

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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VISA Poquoson Fleet Race Regatta

Division A

Division B

From the notes