| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 8–0 |
| 2 |  |
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | Battlin' Baron | 7–1 |
| 3 |  |
Great Mills High School | Hornets | 5–3 |
| 4 |  |
Leonardtown High School | Raiders | 5–3 |
| 5 |  |
Broadneck High School | Bruins | 3–5 |
| 6 |  |
Key School | Zags | 3–5 |
| 7 |  |
Annapolis High School | Panthers | 3–5 |
| 8 |  |
St. Mary's High School (MD) | Saints | 2–6 |
| 9 |  |
Severna Park | Falcons | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 5,635 team race matches sailed before 2018-10-27, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 44 of 51 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.377 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.38 ± 0.36: an orderly event, more orderly than 69% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severn School | 8.12 | 11.12 | 13–0 | 12.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.8 | 52% |
| 2 | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | 4.64 | 5.77 | 10–3 | 8.1 | +1.12 | 1.1 | 19% |
| 4 | Leonardtown High School | 4.22 | 4.84 | 8–5 | 6.9 | +0.62 | 0.4 | 36% |
| 6 | Key School | 1.96 | 2.45 | 3–10 | 2.3 | +0.50 | 0.2 | 40% |
| 5 | Broadneck High School | 3.87 | 3.79 | 6–7 | 6.1 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 3 | Great Mills High School | 3.95 | 3.77 | 6–7 | 6.3 | −0.18 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 7 | Annapolis High School | 3.46 | 2.98 | 3–5 | 3.6 | −0.48 | 0.2 | 81% |
| 8 | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 3.67 | 1.99 | 2–6 | 3.9 | −1.68 | 1.7 | 98% |
| 9 | Severna Park | 1.58 | -1.42 | 0–8 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 1.9 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friso Grolleman | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | 1.04 | 2.16 | 10–3 | 8.1 | +1.12 | 1.1 | 19% |
| Audrey Commerford | Leonardtown High School | 0.75 | 1.37 | 8–5 | 6.9 | +0.62 | 0.4 | 36% |
| Charles Anderson | Key School | 1.71 | 2.21 | 3–10 | 2.3 | +0.50 | 0.2 | 40% |
| Griffin Dugan | Key School | -0.12 | 0.37 | 3–10 | 2.3 | +0.50 | 0.2 | 40% |
| Alex Heim | Broadneck High School | 0.61 | 0.54 | 6–7 | 6.1 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Isabella Fadullon | Annapolis High School | 0.95 | 0.47 | 3–5 | 3.6 | −0.48 | 0.2 | 81% |
| William Cornell | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 1.85 | 0.17 | 2–6 | 3.9 | −1.68 | 1.7 | 98% |
| Eddie Langemak | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 1.12 | -0.56 | 2–6 | 3.9 | −1.68 | 1.7 | 98% |
| Jessica Groblewski | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 0.72 | -0.96 | 2–6 | 3.9 | −1.68 | 1.7 | 98% |
| Douglas Patrick | Severna Park | 0.15 | -2.85 | 0–8 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 1.9 | >99% |
| Connor Killeen | Severna Park | 0.96 | -2.04 | 0–8 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 1.9 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Saints | 2-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Raiders | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Zags | 2-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Hornets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bruins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Zags | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Hornets | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Saints | 2-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Raiders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Zags | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Panthers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 2-3-6 |
| 15 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Hornets | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Zags | 2-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Battlin' Baron | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Panthers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Saints | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Hornets | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Saints | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Zags | 2-3-6 |
| 23 | |
Admirals | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Battlin' Baron | 2-3-6 |
| 24 | |
Bruins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Saints | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Panthers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Saints | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Hornets | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 2-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Zags | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Saints | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Zags | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Raiders | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 2-3-6 |
| 38 | |
Battlin' Baron | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Zags | 1-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Admirals | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 2-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Raiders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 2-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Zags | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Bruins | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Battlin' Baron | 2-3-6 DSQ |
| 44 | |
Hornets | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Zags | 2-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Zags | 4-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-4-6 |
| 48 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Raiders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Zags | 2-5-6 |
| 50 | |
Bruins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 1-5-6 |
| 51 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Battlin' Baron | 4-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.16 means a rating gap counts about 14% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
